FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONDAY, August 13, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Scott Scheleur / Aneta Lukasik                                                                                                                                                                                            CB07-108
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

JULY 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $376.1 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and 3.2 percent (±0.8%) above July 2006. Total sales for the May through July 2007 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2007 percent change was revised from -0.9 percent (± 0.7%) to -0.7 percent (± 0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from June 2007 and were 2.7 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 8.0 percent (±2.8%) from July 2006 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 7.3 percent (±2.6%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for August is scheduled to be released September 14, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jul(3) Jun May Jul Jun Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 376,051 374,957 377,689 364,225 360,488 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 301,017 299,711 300,186 288,257 286,789 Retail ....................................... 338,064 337,457 340,409 329,068 325,387 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 97,998 98,224 94,139 93,933 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,034 75,246 77,503 75,968 73,699 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 68,709 68,937 71,162 69,804 67,586 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,290 10,236 10,375 10,234 10,217 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,303 9,207 9,302 9,049 9,017 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,412 7,515 7,346 7,284 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,795 1,787 1,703 1,733 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,837 29,764 30,438 29,722 29,735 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 26,077 26,655 26,276 26,302 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 47,735 47,541 47,368 45,319 45,116 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 42,491 42,281 42,133 40,440 40,281 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,444 3,411 3,152 3,118 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,872 19,726 19,685 18,748 18,737 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,572 16,583 15,903 15,855 447 Gasoline stations................................ 35,684 35,956 36,438 36,004 35,314 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 19,050 18,797 19,022 18,010 17,859 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,384 3,475 3,337 3,298 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,242 2,250 2,252 2,237 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,576 7,549 7,539 7,194 7,272 452 General merchandise stores....................... 48,626 48,179 47,989 45,875 45,872 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,734 17,459 17,611 17,520 17,769 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 30,720 30,378 28,355 28,103 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 27,164 26,804 24,837 24,610 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,556 3,574 3,518 3,493 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,346 10,643 10,292 9,912 9,868 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,711 24,613 24,458 23,033 22,681 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 16,636 16,504 15,187 15,086 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,987 37,500 37,280 35,157 35,101 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2007

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 7 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from Jul(2) Jun May Jul Jun Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,561,925 3.9 376,801 382,768 397,926 365,323 369,852 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,013,700 4.3 296,417 301,754 311,665 284,454 289,298 Retail ....................................... 2,302,557 3.7 337,446 343,880 359,192 328,619 333,698 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 94,009 95,884 88,426 89,882 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 548,225 2.5 80,384 81,014 86,261 80,869 80,554 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 504,395 2.5 73,793 74,383 79,559 74,551 74,007 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 59,573 63,714 61,728 60,213 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,631 6,702 6,318 6,547 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 69,069 2.9 10,012 10,154 10,240 9,958 10,156 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,326 5,484 5,307 5,311 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,828 4,756 4,651 4,845 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 59,406 3.0 8,550 8,526 8,549 8,345 8,392 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,923 6,951 6,795 6,789 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,603 1,598 1,550 1,603 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 211,087 -1.7 31,233 33,459 37,854 30,434 34,205 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 28,659 30,893 27,064 29,563 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 325,729 5.7 48,155 48,172 49,095 46,353 45,435 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 291,378 5.5 42,916 42,788 43,734 41,370 40,523 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,568 3,459 3,259 3,190 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 136,373 6.7 19,236 19,430 20,216 18,092 18,550 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,207 17,031 15,315 15,601 447 Gasoline stations................................ 242,610 1.3 38,396 38,473 39,353 38,848 37,503 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 118,440 6.5 17,064 17,532 18,795 16,388 16,628 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 842 865 688 775 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,326 3,680 2,977 3,245 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,783 7,074 6,635 6,420 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,116 2,255 2,146 2,096 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 46,498 1.9 6,940 7,179 6,800 6,575 6,770 452 General merchandise stores....................... 313,269 5.0 45,810 47,002 47,707 43,767 44,576 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 110,037 -1.1 15,747 16,324 16,899 15,914 16,599 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,748 17,341 16,354 17,067 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 30,678 30,808 27,853 27,977 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 27,218 27,152 24,564 24,536 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,460 3,656 3,289 3,441 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 68,852 3.0 9,933 10,823 11,025 9,450 10,101 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 162,999 9.3 21,733 22,116 23,297 19,540 20,828 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 15,372 16,124 13,349 14,286 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 259,368 5.9 39,355 38,888 38,734 36,704 36,154 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jul Jun 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.3 +3.2 -0.7 +4.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.4 +4.4 -0.2 +4.5 Retail .................................. +0.2 +2.7 -0.9 +3.7 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -0.3 -1.2 -2.9 +2.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -0.3 -1.6 -3.1 +2.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.5 +0.5 -1.3 +0.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.0 +2.8 -1.0 +2.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.2 +0.4 -2.2 +0.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +5.3 +0.4 +5.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.5 +5.1 +0.4 +5.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.7 +6.0 +0.2 +5.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 +1.8 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +1.3 +5.8 -1.2 +5.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.4 +5.3 +0.1 +3.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +6.0 +0.4 +5.0 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.6 +1.2 -0.9 -1.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -2.8 +4.4 +3.4 +7.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.4 +7.3 +0.6 +8.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.3 +8.0 +0.6 +6.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2007

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jul Jun 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.6 +3.1 -3.8 +3.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -1.8 +4.2 -3.2 +4.3 Retail .................................. -1.9 +2.7 -4.3 +3.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -0.8 -0.6 -6.1 +0.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -0.8 -1.0 -6.5 +0.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.4 +0.5 -0.8 0.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.3 +2.5 -0.3 +1.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -6.7 +2.6 -11.6 -2.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 0.0 +3.9 -1.9 +6.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +3.7 -2.2 +5.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.0 +6.3 -3.9 +4.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.2 -1.2 -2.2 +2.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -2.7 +4.1 -6.7 +5.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -3.3 +5.6 +5.6 +6.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... -2.5 +4.7 -1.5 +5.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -3.5 -1.0 -3.4 -1.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -8.2 +5.1 -1.8 +7.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -1.7 +11.2 -5.1 +6.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.2 +7.2 +0.4 +7.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JULY 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median revisions are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, a U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: August 13, 2007