CB-04-153FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Tuesday, September 14, 2004
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $335.2 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 4.9 percent (±1.0%) from August 2003. Total sales for the June through August 2004 period were up 6.1 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2004 percent change was revised from +0.7 percent (±0.8%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.8%) from July 2004, but were 4.7 percent (±1.2%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 15.8 percent (±2.1%) from August 2003 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 14.5 percent (±3.8%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector
Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233.
Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's
online Economic Bulletin Board.
For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2004
(Total sales estimtes are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) (In Millions of dollars) 20043 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS1 Kind of Business Aug Jul Jun Code (a) (p) (r) Aug(r) Jul(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 335,239 336,137 333,543 319,550 315,123 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 259,124 258,572 257,672 242,064 239,216 Retail ....................................... 302,737 303,551 301,306 289,025 285,205 GAFO4............................................ (*) 85,071 84,377 81,664 80,642 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,115 77,565 75,871 77,486 75,907 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 69,128 70,536 68,920 70,680 69,146 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,794 8,872 8,698 8,303 8,233 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,531 8,524 8,490 8,054 7,955 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,093 6,135 5,752 5,676 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,431 2,355 2,302 2,279 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 30,688 30,570 30,769 27,347 27,300 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,345 27,601 24,167 24,038 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 43,997 43,727 43,802 42,492 42,358 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,457 39,151 39,242 38,193 38,150 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,813 2,803 2,725 2,680 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,140 16,971 16,990 16,274 16,165 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,461 14,490 13,810 13,759 447 Gasoline stations................................ 26,104 26,035 26,134 22,535 21,836 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 15,436 15,654 15,627 15,071 15,054 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 956 941 893 868 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,952 2,993 2,827 2,843 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,901 1,897 1,939 1,893 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,011 6,912 6,785 6,760 6,589 452 General merchandise stores....................... 41,626 41,790 41,467 40,105 39,471 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,482 17,628 17,608 18,084 17,972 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)4................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 24,162 23,859 22,021 21,499 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 20,692 20,415 18,682 18,184 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,470 3,444 3,339 3,315 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,229 9,160 9,122 8,822 8,725 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 18,066 17,771 17,551 15,776 15,612 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,300 11,216 10,137 10,124 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 32,502 32,586 32,237 30,525 29,918 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estiamte (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.htmlTABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2004
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 8 month total % Chg. 20042 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS1 Kind of Business 2004 from Aug Jul Jun Code 2003 (a) (p) (r) Aug Jul Retail & food services, total.................... 2,637,028 7.8 345,573 346,800 339,295 330,313 323,056 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,001,977 9.0 262,602 261,196 257,603 247,428 239,460 Retail ....................................... 2,377,181 7.6 311,543 311,933 306,413 297,743 291,792 GAFO3............................................ (*) (*) (*) 81,101 79,347 83,421 75,707 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 635,051 4.3 82,971 85,604 81,692 82,885 83,596 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 578,282 4.2 75,488 78,083 74,227 75,698 76,199 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 65,005 61,091 63,981 63,916 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 7,521 7,465 7,187 7,397 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 67,016 8.1 8,979 8,943 8,533 8,527 8,225 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,930 4,661 4,572 4,319 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,013 3,872 3,955 3,906 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 62,735 10.0 8,519 8,018 7,968 8,095 7,437 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,721 5,712 5,758 5,290 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,297 2,256 2,337 2,147 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 245,831 15.8 32,077 32,716 35,571 27,820 29,820 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 29,368 30,996 25,206 26,346 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 347,299 4.2 43,929 46,032 43,752 43,468 43,847 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 312,659 3.7 39,457 41,187 39,203 39,071 39,523 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,999 2,764 2,809 2,758 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 133,955 7.0 16,900 16,733 16,752 15,981 15,955 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,157 14,229 13,465 13,484 447 Gasoline stations................................ 205,115 14.3 27,853 28,248 27,415 24,338 23,408 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 114,500 7.1 15,407 14,598 14,219 15,466 13,766 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 860 885 938 762 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,683 2,870 2,691 2,539 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,430 4,956 5,557 5,097 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,916 1,795 2,406 1,859 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 49,658 3.8 7,558 6,269 6,147 7,341 5,897 452 General merchandise stores....................... 311,914 7.2 40,920 40,266 39,541 40,347 37,350 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 129,080 -0.6 17,108 16,339 16,187 18,125 16,344 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)5................. (*) (*) (*) 16,525 16,389 18,338 16,544 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 23,927 23,354 22,222 21,006 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 20,589 20,027 19,000 17,820 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,338 3,327 3,222 3,186 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 71,464 6.0 9,523 8,960 9,085 9,043 8,540 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 132,643 12.0 16,907 15,546 15,738 14,432 13,951 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 10,317 10,453 9,569 9,446 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 259,847 10.0 34,030 34,867 32,882 32,570 31,264 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subdsample panel for these business classifications. (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estiamte (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.htmlTABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2004
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Montly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Aug Jul 2004 2004 Advance Preliminary from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.3 +4.9 +0.8 +6.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.2 +7.0 +0.3 +8.1 Retail .................................. -0.3 +4.7 +0.7 +6.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.9 -1.8 +2.2 +2.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -2.0 -2.2 +2.3 +2.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.9 +5.9 +2.0 +7.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.1 +5.9 +0.4 +7.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.4 +12.2 -0.6 +12.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.6 +3.5 -0.2 +3.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.8 +3.3 -0.2 +2.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.0 +5.3 -0.1 +5.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.3 +15.8 -0.4 +19.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -1.4 +2.4 +0.2 +4.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.4 +3.7 +1.9 +4.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.4 +3.8 +0.8 +5.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.8 -3.3 +0.1 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.8 +4.6 +0.4 +5.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.7 +14.5 +1.3 +13.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.3 +6.5 +1.1 +8.9 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estiamte (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Aug Jul 2004 2004 Advance Preliminary from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (p) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.4 +4.6 +2.2 +7.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.5 +6.1 +1.4 +9.1 Retail .................................. -0.1 +4.6 +1.8 +6.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -3.1 +0.1 +4.8 +2.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -3.3 -0.3 +5.2 +2.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.4 +5.3 +4.8 +8.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +6.2 +5.2 +0.6 +7.8 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.0 +15.3 -8.0 +9.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -4.6 +1.1 +5.2 +5.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -4.2 +1.0 +5.1 +4.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.0 +5.8 -0.1 +4.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.4 +14.4 +3.0 +20.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +5.5 -0.4 +2.7 +6.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +20.6 +3.0 +2.0 +6.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.6 +1.4 +1.8 +7.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +4.7 -5.6 +0.9 0.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +6.3 +5.3 -1.4 +4.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +8.8 +17.1 -1.2 +11.4 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -2.4 +4.5 +6.0 +11.5 (p) Preliminary estimates. (r) Revised estimates. (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from unadjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--AUGUST 2004 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html. Reliability of Estimates: Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
2nd
Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
