WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2005, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $350.1 billion, a decrease of 2.1 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 7.9 percent (±0.8%) from August 2004. Total sales for the June through August 2005 period were up 9.4 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2005 percent change was unrevised from +1.8 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were down 2.3 percent (±0.7%) from July, but were up 8.0 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 29.3 percent (±3.3%) from August 2004 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 11.0 percent (±3.5%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for August is scheduled to be released October 14, 2005 at 8:30 a.m.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2005
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Aug(3) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 350,106 357,629 351,320 324,501 323,929 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 274,921 272,225 270,962 251,368 251,186 Retail ....................................... 316,346 323,857 317,623 292,943 292,296 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 88,614 88,776 83,834 84,053 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 75,185 85,404 80,358 73,133 72,743 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 69,109 79,355 74,302 67,569 67,185 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,155 9,077 9,075 8,673 8,838 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,354 8,327 8,297 7,867 7,886 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,734 6,724 6,326 6,318 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,593 1,573 1,541 1,568 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 27,615 27,465 27,530 25,473 25,249 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 24,321 24,369 22,569 22,389 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 43,800 43,534 43,455 41,509 41,373 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,222 38,927 38,888 37,307 37,185 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,849 2,834 2,658 2,652 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,509 18,289 18,140 17,121 17,070 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,623 15,518 14,714 14,592 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,152 32,728 31,471 26,415 26,670 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,650 16,649 16,801 15,614 15,684 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 833 849 790 790 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,090 3,112 2,894 2,884 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,018 2,001 1,915 1,933 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,869 6,836 6,787 6,743 6,729 452 General merchandise stores....................... 44,522 44,409 44,492 41,730 41,688 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,741 17,793 18,064 17,864 17,863 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 26,616 26,428 23,866 23,825 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 23,214 22,983 20,642 20,570 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,402 3,445 3,224 3,255 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,591 9,581 9,562 8,895 8,871 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 21,944 21,558 21,655 19,770 19,495 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 13,598 13,567 12,480 12,339 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,760 33,772 33,697 31,558 31,633 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 8 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Aug(2) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,726,448 7.6 363,263 360,510 359,578 331,754 333,020 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,089,647 7.8 280,915 270,151 271,553 253,816 252,710 Retail ....................................... 2,457,471 7.7 328,186 324,644 325,140 298,902 299,236 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 83,999 84,805 83,569 80,227 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 636,801 6.9 82,348 90,359 88,025 77,938 80,310 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 588,201 6.8 75,743 84,116 81,509 72,029 74,374 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 70,509 66,778 60,826 62,452 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,243 6,516 5,909 5,936 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 68,969 4.0 9,558 8,941 8,948 8,855 8,873 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,888 4,832 4,851 4,936 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,053 4,116 4,004 3,937 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 61,381 5.7 8,360 7,786 7,802 7,805 7,446 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,290 6,287 6,244 5,952 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,496 1,515 1,561 1,494 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 220,701 8.9 29,559 28,301 31,926 26,545 26,974 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 25,270 27,440 24,126 24,068 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 341,903 4.6 44,160 44,901 43,600 41,350 43,223 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 307,414 4.3 39,614 40,095 39,005 37,232 38,784 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,986 2,831 2,600 2,840 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 143,454 6.2 18,750 17,722 17,886 16,933 16,848 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,092 15,254 14,376 14,329 447 Gasoline stations................................ 249,009 19.0 37,260 34,888 32,698 28,370 28,857 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 120,965 5.5 16,604 15,248 15,607 15,556 14,636 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 735 816 799 706 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,750 3,059 2,665 2,616 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,014 5,848 5,972 5,693 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,002 1,909 2,281 1,952 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 49,439 1.9 7,460 6,269 6,129 7,181 6,177 452 General merchandise stores....................... 329,955 6.2 43,453 42,710 43,316 40,727 40,111 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 129,704 -0.1 17,134 16,271 17,108 17,203 16,440 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,429 17,292 17,404 16,651 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 26,439 26,208 23,524 23,671 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 23,214 22,822 20,477 20,549 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,225 3,386 3,047 3,122 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 73,387 6.2 9,983 9,187 9,631 9,126 8,749 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 161,507 11.7 20,691 18,332 19,572 18,516 17,032 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 12,129 12,726 12,093 11,278 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 268,977 6.7 35,077 35,866 34,438 32,852 33,784 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2005
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Aug Jul 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -2.1 +7.9 +1.8 +10.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.0 +9.4 +0.5 +8.4 Retail .................................. -2.3 +8.0 +2.0 +10.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -12.0 +2.8 +6.3 +17.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -12.9 +2.3 +6.8 +18.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.9 +5.6 0.0 +2.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.3 +6.2 +0.4 +5.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.5 +8.4 -0.2 +8.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.6 +5.5 +0.2 +5.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.8 +5.1 +0.1 +4.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.2 +8.1 +0.8 +7.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ +4.4 +29.3 +4.0 +22.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 0.0 +6.6 -0.9 +6.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.5 +1.9 +0.7 +1.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +6.7 -0.2 +6.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.3 -0.7 -1.5 -0.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.1 +7.8 +0.2 +8.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.8 +11.0 -0.4 +10.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 0.0 +7.0 +0.2 +6.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Aug Jul 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.8 +9.5 +0.3 +8.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +4.0 +10.7 -0.5 +6.9 Retail .................................. +1.1 +9.8 -0.2 +8.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -8.9 +5.7 +2.7 +12.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -10.0 +5.2 +3.2 +13.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +6.9 +7.9 -0.1 +0.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +7.4 +7.1 -0.2 +4.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +4.4 +11.4 -11.4 +4.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -1.7 +6.8 +3.0 +3.9 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -1.2 +6.4 +2.8 +3.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +5.8 +10.7 -0.9 +5.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ +6.8 +31.3 +6.7 +20.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +8.9 +6.7 -2.3 +4.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +19.0 +3.9 +2.3 +1.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.7 +6.7 -1.4 +6.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +5.3 -0.4 -4.9 -1.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +8.7 +9.4 -4.6 +5.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +12.9 +11.7 -6.3 +7.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -2.2 +6.8 +4.1 +6.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--AUGUST 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur(301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
2nd Quarter 2005 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
