THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
| Special Notice – Beginning with the December 13, 2006 release for November 2006, data will be based on a new sample. In addition, a special release providing historic data on a new sample basis will be provided in November after the November 14, 2006 release covering October 2006 data. A new sample for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey is selected about once every two and a half years. For further information on the sample revision, see our website at http://www.census.gov/retail. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $368.2 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 6.7 percent (±0.7%) from August 2005. Total sales for the June through August 2006 period were up 5.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2006 percent change was unrevised from +1.4 percent (± 0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from July and were 6.6 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.5 percent (±4.5%) from August 2005 and sales of gasoline stations were up 11.0 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for September is scheduled to be released October 13, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Aug(3) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 368,233 367,351 362,439 345,226 350,635 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 291,772 291,215 289,465 271,502 268,229 Retail ....................................... 332,686 332,041 327,208 312,031 317,599 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 93,739 93,386 88,936 88,365 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,461 76,136 72,974 73,724 82,406 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,100 69,773 66,668 67,601 76,346 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,016 10,049 10,051 9,404 9,255 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,837 8,827 8,764 8,391 8,349 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,303 7,223 6,735 6,673 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,524 1,541 1,656 1,676 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,743 29,721 29,634 27,498 27,290 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 26,137 26,131 24,223 24,145 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,913 45,617 45,428 43,475 43,229 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,706 40,505 40,358 38,850 38,611 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,228 3,204 2,928 2,919 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,797 18,685 18,634 17,413 17,373 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,669 15,583 14,605 14,512 447 Gasoline stations................................ 37,688 38,068 37,465 33,956 32,360 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,887 17,933 17,765 16,775 16,597 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 786 789 787 785 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,325 3,269 3,076 3,035 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,126 2,125 2,016 2,046 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,306 7,249 7,285 6,867 6,856 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,221 46,040 45,940 44,078 43,906 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,539 17,574 17,672 17,782 17,834 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,466 28,268 26,296 26,072 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 24,981 24,800 22,926 22,724 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,485 3,468 3,370 3,348 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,950 9,915 9,960 9,242 9,312 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,867 23,801 23,308 21,208 20,666 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,174 15,071 13,779 13,590 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 35,547 35,310 35,231 33,195 33,036 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 8 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Aug(2) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,870,259 7.0 383,460 368,706 373,279 358,936 354,414 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,244,246 9.0 298,327 286,975 291,742 276,998 266,100 Retail ....................................... 2,587,174 6.9 346,633 331,842 336,885 324,612 319,462 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 88,042 89,566 88,966 83,701 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 626,013 0.2 85,133 81,731 81,537 81,938 88,314 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 574,891 -0.2 78,161 75,215 74,802 75,307 82,072 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 61,078 59,569 61,325 67,945 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,516 6,735 6,631 6,242 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 76,760 9.0 10,437 9,828 10,051 9,808 9,125 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,151 5,149 5,181 4,873 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,677 4,902 4,627 4,252 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 65,293 6.1 8,773 8,183 8,228 8,362 7,788 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,770 6,761 6,668 6,233 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,413 1,467 1,694 1,555 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 244,163 12.5 31,341 30,266 33,982 29,133 27,808 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,764 29,162 26,330 24,773 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 356,651 5.0 46,665 46,666 45,744 43,824 44,635 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 318,024 4.2 41,520 41,437 40,600 39,238 39,847 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,322 3,252 2,916 3,047 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 146,413 7.2 18,722 18,106 18,522 17,448 16,852 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,183 15,458 14,561 14,062 447 Gasoline stations................................ 292,825 17.5 41,419 40,847 39,376 37,284 34,884 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 129,033 6.5 17,978 16,341 16,606 16,757 15,271 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 690 772 800 698 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,956 3,223 2,845 2,713 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,607 6,397 6,592 6,131 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,049 2,010 2,393 1,997 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 53,239 7.1 7,949 6,517 6,717 7,464 6,266 452 General merchandise stores....................... 344,242 5.8 45,107 43,862 44,684 42,843 42,106 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 128,530 -0.9 16,922 15,969 16,666 17,155 16,286 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,362 17,082 17,601 16,712 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 27,893 28,018 25,688 25,820 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 24,631 24,602 22,513 22,656 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,262 3,416 3,175 3,164 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 77,144 8.6 10,222 9,433 10,153 9,511 8,910 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 175,398 13.4 22,887 20,062 21,285 20,240 17,503 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 13,368 14,287 13,641 12,014 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 283,085 7.9 36,827 36,864 36,394 34,324 34,952 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Aug Jul 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.2 +6.7 +1.4 +4.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.2 +7.5 +0.6 +8.6 Retail .................................. +0.2 +6.6 +1.5 +4.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.4 +3.7 +4.3 -7.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.5 +3.7 +4.7 -8.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.3 +6.5 0.0 +8.6 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.1 +5.3 +0.7 +5.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.1 +8.2 +0.3 +8.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.6 +5.6 +0.4 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.5 +4.8 +0.4 +4.9 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.6 +7.9 +0.3 +7.6 447 Gasoline stations................................ -1.0 +11.0 +1.6 +17.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.3 +6.6 +0.9 +8.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.8 +6.4 -0.5 +5.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.4 +4.9 +0.2 +4.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.2 -1.4 -0.6 -1.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.4 +7.7 -0.5 +6.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.3 +12.5 +2.1 +15.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.7 +7.1 +0.2 +6.9 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Aug Jul 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +4.0 +6.8 -1.2 +4.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +4.0 +7.7 -1.6 +7.8 Retail .................................. +4.5 +6.8 -1.5 +3.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +4.2 +3.9 +0.2 -7.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +3.9 +3.8 +0.6 -8.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +6.2 +6.4 -2.2 +7.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +7.2 +4.9 -0.5 +5.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +3.6 +7.6 -10.9 +8.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 0.0 +6.5 +2.0 +4.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.2 +5.8 +2.1 +4.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +3.4 +7.3 -2.2 +7.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.4 +11.1 +3.7 +17.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +10.0 +7.3 -1.6 +7.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +22.0 +6.5 -3.0 +4.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... +2.8 +5.3 -1.8 +4.2 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +6.0 -1.4 -4.2 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +8.4 +7.5 -7.1 +5.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +14.1 +13.1 -5.7 +14.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.1 +7.3 +1.3 +5.5 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--AUGUST 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
