FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Scott Scheleur / Aneta Lukasik                                                                                                                                                                                            CB07-127
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

AUGUST 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $377.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and 3.7 percent (±0.8%) above August 2006. Total sales for the June through August 2007 period were up 3.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2007 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (± 0.7%)* to +0.5 percent (± 0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from July 2007 and were 3.5 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 6.9 percent (±2.6%) from August 2006 and sales of sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores were also up 6.9 percent (±2.6%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for September is scheduled to be released October 12, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Aug(3) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 377,615 376,578 374,740 364,006 363,633 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 300,491 301,562 299,480 289,092 287,587 Retail ....................................... 339,883 338,863 337,273 328,303 328,408 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 99,052 97,958 94,280 94,131 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,124 75,016 75,260 74,914 76,046 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,766 68,723 68,956 68,789 69,870 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,442 10,393 10,213 10,230 10,213 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,346 9,309 9,206 9,069 9,047 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,478 7,419 7,309 7,346 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,831 1,787 1,760 1,701 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,691 29,987 29,739 29,715 29,648 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 26,242 26,076 26,253 26,199 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 47,846 47,854 47,585 45,582 45,240 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 42,490 42,567 42,322 40,655 40,361 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,477 3,457 3,151 3,146 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 20,023 19,963 19,736 18,938 18,709 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,794 16,586 16,056 15,903 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,755 35,623 35,762 35,717 35,706 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 19,078 19,090 18,798 17,927 17,978 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,417 3,390 3,248 3,352 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,305 2,260 2,278 2,231 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,653 7,630 7,581 7,156 7,202 452 General merchandise stores....................... 48,706 48,545 48,116 46,108 45,907 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,603 17,640 17,406 17,550 17,556 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 30,905 30,710 28,558 28,351 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 27,351 27,164 25,039 24,837 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,554 3,546 3,519 3,514 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,511 10,495 10,647 9,844 9,921 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,708 24,958 24,630 23,103 22,791 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 16,958 16,677 15,347 14,982 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,732 37,715 37,467 35,703 35,225 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2007

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 8 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from Aug(2) Jul Jun Aug Jul Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,958,214 4.0 394,877 378,194 382,787 379,088 365,323 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,324,738 4.4 309,460 297,985 301,764 296,013 284,454 Retail ....................................... 2,659,733 3.8 355,372 339,234 343,896 342,028 328,619 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 92,262 93,958 94,693 88,426 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 633,476 2.5 85,417 80,209 81,023 83,075 80,869 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 582,774 2.5 78,480 73,671 74,404 76,356 74,551 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 59,850 59,607 63,679 61,728 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,538 6,619 6,719 6,318 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 80,246 3.1 11,037 10,154 10,152 10,741 9,958 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,351 5,357 5,718 5,307 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,803 4,795 5,023 4,651 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 68,683 3.0 9,259 8,567 8,527 8,960 8,345 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,895 6,922 7,156 6,795 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,672 1,605 1,804 1,550 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 242,654 -1.5 31,269 31,542 33,448 31,597 30,434 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 27,816 28,657 28,668 27,064 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 375,034 5.8 48,972 48,402 48,258 46,275 46,353 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 335,176 5.5 43,552 43,078 42,872 41,387 41,370 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,547 3,578 3,167 3,259 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 156,614 6.7 20,083 19,404 19,420 18,900 18,092 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,223 16,221 15,976 15,315 447 Gasoline stations................................ 281,592 1.1 38,648 38,687 38,516 39,217 38,848 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 137,781 6.6 19,235 17,166 17,536 17,957 16,388 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 735 836 793 688 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,007 3,332 3,011 2,977 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,933 6,783 7,101 6,635 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,162 2,122 2,699 2,146 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 55,080 2.9 8,548 6,981 7,172 7,893 6,575 452 General merchandise stores....................... 361,289 5.2 48,222 45,665 46,945 45,026 43,767 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 127,127 -0.8 17,275 15,613 16,273 16,898 15,914 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,020 16,697 17,362 16,354 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 30,052 30,672 28,128 27,853 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 26,722 27,218 24,764 24,564 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,330 3,454 3,364 3,289 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 79,897 3.8 10,835 10,160 10,806 10,163 9,450 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 187,387 9.4 23,847 22,297 22,093 22,224 19,540 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 15,703 15,343 15,270 13,349 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 298,481 5.8 39,505 38,960 38,891 37,060 36,704 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Aug Jul 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.3 +3.7 +0.5 +3.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.4 +3.9 +0.7 +4.9 Retail .................................. +0.3 +3.5 +0.5 +3.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.8 +3.0 -0.3 -1.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +3.0 +2.9 -0.3 -1.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.5 +2.1 +1.8 +1.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.4 +3.1 +1.1 +2.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.0 -0.1 +0.8 +1.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 0.0 +5.0 +0.6 +5.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.2 +4.5 +0.6 +5.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.3 +5.7 +1.2 +6.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ -2.4 -2.7 -0.4 -0.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.1 +6.4 +1.6 +6.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.3 +6.9 +0.6 +5.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +5.6 +0.9 +5.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.2 +0.3 +1.3 +0.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.2 +6.8 -1.4 +5.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -1.0 +6.9 +1.3 +9.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 0.0 +5.7 +0.7 +7.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--August 2007

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Aug Jul 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jul Aug Jun Jul Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +4.4 +4.2 -1.2 +3.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +3.9 +4.5 -1.3 +4.8 Retail .................................. +4.8 +3.9 -1.4 +3.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +6.5 +2.8 -1.0 -0.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +6.5 +2.8 -1.0 -1.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +8.7 +2.8 0.0 +2.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +8.1 +3.3 +0.5 +2.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.9 -1.0 -5.7 +3.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.2 +5.8 +0.3 +4.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.1 +5.2 +0.5 +4.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +3.5 +6.3 -0.1 +7.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.1 -1.5 +0.4 -0.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +12.1 +7.1 -2.1 +4.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +22.4 +8.3 -2.7 +6.2 452 General merchandise stores....................... +5.6 +7.1 -2.7 +4.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +10.6 +2.2 -4.1 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +6.6 +6.6 -6.0 +7.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +7.0 +7.3 +0.9 +14.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.4 +6.6 +0.2 +6.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--AUGUST 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month changes for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, a U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: September 14, 2007