CB-04-171FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Friday, October 15, 2004
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $341.3 billion, an increase of 1.5 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 7.7 percent (±1.0%) from September 2003. Total sales for the July through September 2004 period were up 6.5 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2004 percent change was revised from -0.3 percent (±0.8%) to -0.2 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.5 percent (±0.8%) from August 2004 and were 7.5 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 15.1 percent (±2.1%) from September 2003 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 14.4 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2004
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Data adjusted2 for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars) 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS1 Kind of Business Sep3 Aug Jul Code (a) (p) (r) Sep(r) Aug(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 341,273 336,354 336,944 316,937 320,843 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 260,895 259,238 258,811 242,057 242,428 Retail ....................................... 308,612 303,933 304,355 287,092 290,318 GAFO4............................................. (*) 84,612 85,059 81,543 81,881 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 80,378 77,116 78,133 74,880 78,415 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 73,370 70,133 71,117 67,956 71,616 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,701 8,739 8,867 8,413 8,303 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,496 8,456 8,522 8,133 8,080 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,101 6,086 5,758 5,775 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,355 2,436 2,375 2,305 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,480 31,032 30,814 27,527 27,405 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,673 27,552 24,377 24,190 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,346 44,136 43,731 42,615 42,535 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,800 39,559 39,160 38,262 38,230 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,809 2,810 2,760 2,730 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,127 17,051 16,935 16,325 16,291 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,544 14,425 13,958 13,824 447 Gasoline stations................................ 26,097 26,070 26,101 22,675 22,577 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 15,682 15,559 15,665 15,081 15,092 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 951 950 898 889 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,954 2,976 2,881 2,833 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,854 1,898 1,917 1,940 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,875 6,906 6,875 6,659 6,874 452 General merchandise stores....................... 42,122 41,669 41,810 39,958 40,153 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,706 17,550 17,672 17,948 18,125 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)5.................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 24,119 24,138 22,010 22,028 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 20,684 20,672 18,652 18,682 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,435 3,466 3,358 3,346 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,154 9,111 9,128 8,766 8,846 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 18,154 18,088 17,774 16,060 15,747 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,398 11,258 10,328 10,094 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 32,661 32,421 32,589 29,845 30,525 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.htmlTABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2004
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars) 9 month total % Chg. 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS1 Kind of Business 2004 from Sep2 Aug Jul Code 2003 (a) (p) (r) Sep Aug Retail & food services, total.................... 2,968,496 7.8 331,968 345,103 346,770 306,836 330,313 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,253,038 8.9 251,464 262,154 261,241 231,710 247,428 Retail ....................................... 2,676,887 7.6 300,091 311,191 311,900 277,707 297,743 GAFO3............................................. (*) (*) (*) 84,598 81,123 74,079 83,421 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 715,458 4.6 80,504 82,949 85,529 75,126 82,885 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 651,559 4.5 73,370 75,463 78,015 68,160 75,698 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 63,151 64,939 57,831 63,981 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 7,486 7,514 6,966 7,187 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 75,412 7.5 8,440 8,931 8,947 8,186 8,527 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,854 4,937 4,305 4,572 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,077 4,010 3,881 3,955 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 70,442 9.2 7,825 8,407 8,012 7,498 8,095 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,003 5,715 5,142 5,758 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,404 2,297 2,356 2,337 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 278,158 15.7 31,974 32,346 32,800 28,039 27,820 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 29,555 29,453 25,645 25,206 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 390,790 4.4 43,521 43,974 45,957 41,093 43,468 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 351,856 3.9 39,243 39,480 41,118 37,038 39,071 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,747 2,995 2,597 2,809 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 150,257 6.7 16,459 16,778 16,698 15,721 15,981 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,166 14,122 13,497 13,465 447 Gasoline stations................................ 231,507 14.5 26,462 27,738 28,293 22,879 24,338 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 128,898 7.0 14,239 15,553 14,611 13,544 15,466 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 977 864 797 938 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,744 2,681 2,720 2,691 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,709 5,438 4,846 5,557 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,234 1,913 1,754 2,406 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 55,794 3.2 6,421 7,272 6,270 6,226 7,341 452 General merchandise stores....................... 350,092 7.3 38,226 40,872 40,266 35,454 40,347 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 144,995 -0.3 15,930 17,093 16,339 15,619 18,125 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)4.................. (*) (*) (*) 17,270 16,525 15,812 18,338 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 23,779 23,927 19,835 22,222 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 20,519 20,589 16,843 19,000 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,260 3,338 2,992 3,222 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 80,203 5.6 8,860 9,410 8,952 8,517 9,043 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 149,876 12.0 17,160 16,961 15,565 15,424 14,432 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 11,113 10,335 10,111 9,569 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 291,609 9.9 31,877 33,912 34,870 29,129 32,570 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estiamte (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.htmlTABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2004
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Sep Aug 2004 2004 Advance Preliminary from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Aug Sep Jul Aug Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.5 +7.7 -0.2 +4.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.6 +7.8 +0.2 +6.9 Retail .................................. +1.5 +7.5 -0.1 +4.7 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +4.2 +7.3 -1.3 -1.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +4.6 +8.0 -1.4 -2.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.4 +3.4 -1.4 +5.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.5 +4.5 -0.8 +4.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.4 +14.4 +0.7 +13.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.5 +4.1 +0.9 +3.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.6 +4.0 +1.0 +3.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.4 +4.9 +0.7 +4.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.1 +15.1 -0.1 +15.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.8 +4.0 -0.7 +3.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.4 +3.2 +0.5 +0.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.1 +5.4 -0.3 +3.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -3.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.5 +4.4 -0.2 +3.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.4 +13.0 +1.8 +14.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.7 +9.4 -0.5 +6.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Sep Aug 2004 2004 Advance Preliminary from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Aug Sep Jul Aug Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -3.8 +8.2 -0.5 +4.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -4.1 +8.5 +0.3 +6.0 Retail .................................. -3.6 +8.1 -0.2 +4.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.9 +7.2 -3.0 +0.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -2.8 +7.6 -3.3 -0.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -5.5 +3.1 -0.2 +4.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -6.9 +4.4 +4.9 +3.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.2 +14.0 -1.4 +16.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -1.0 +5.9 -4.3 +1.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.6 +6.0 -4.0 +1.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.9 +4.7 +0.5 +5.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.6 +15.7 -2.0 +14.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -8.4 +5.1 +6.4 +0.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -11.7 +3.1 +16.0 -0.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... -6.5 +7.8 +1.5 +1.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -6.8 +2.0 +4.6 -5.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -5.8 +4.0 +5.1 +4.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.2 +11.3 +9.0 +17.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -6.0 +9.4 -2.7 +4.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--SEPTEMBER 2004 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
2nd
Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
