FRIDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2005, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $351.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 6.5 percent (±0.8%) from September 2004. Total sales for the July through September 2005 period were up 8.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2005 percent change was revised from –2.1 percent (±0.7%) to –1.9 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from August and were up 6.7 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 34.8 percent (±3.3%) from September 2004 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 11.1 percent (±3.6%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for October is scheduled to be released November 15, 2005 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2005
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Sep(3) Aug Jul Sep Aug Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 351,461 350,634 357,285 329,872 324,257 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 278,093 275,177 272,354 253,689 251,574 Retail ....................................... 317,598 316,829 323,510 297,693 292,729 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 88,978 88,622 84,417 83,881 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 73,368 75,457 84,931 76,183 72,683 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 67,341 69,384 78,894 70,579 67,129 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,330 9,217 9,111 8,611 8,673 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,436 8,367 8,338 7,965 7,876 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,804 6,763 6,389 6,346 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,563 1,575 1,576 1,530 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 27,969 27,681 27,480 25,766 25,487 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 24,533 24,391 22,688 22,611 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,125 43,847 43,602 41,787 41,547 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,517 39,242 39,001 37,552 37,344 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,851 2,846 2,674 2,656 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,474 18,268 18,235 17,226 17,208 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,672 15,602 14,743 14,730 447 Gasoline stations................................ 35,712 34,340 32,836 26,500 26,539 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,673 16,712 16,627 15,771 15,646 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 839 831 788 793 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,096 3,100 2,933 2,884 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,997 2,009 1,957 1,917 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,744 6,808 6,790 6,716 6,749 452 General merchandise stores....................... 44,955 44,567 44,439 42,109 41,735 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,619 17,707 17,768 17,982 17,841 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 26,860 26,671 24,127 23,894 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 23,424 23,261 20,860 20,663 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,436 3,410 3,267 3,231 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,569 9,364 9,549 9,032 8,917 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 22,243 22,201 21,572 20,027 19,669 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 13,840 13,586 12,449 12,403 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,863 33,805 33,775 32,179 31,528 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 9 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Sep(2) Aug Jul Sep Aug Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,069,448 7.6 341,813 364,594 360,366 319,134 331,754 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,359,249 8.1 269,687 280,952 270,029 243,939 253,816 Retail ....................................... 2,767,134 7.7 308,593 329,403 324,497 287,953 298,902 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 89,115 83,957 77,389 83,569 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 710,199 5.9 72,126 83,642 90,337 75,195 77,938 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 655,588 5.7 66,129 77,016 84,101 69,591 72,029 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 63,538 70,442 59,517 60,826 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,626 6,236 5,604 5,909 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 78,257 4.8 9,199 9,632 8,956 8,413 8,855 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,204 4,899 4,587 4,851 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,428 4,057 3,826 4,004 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 69,130 5.7 7,756 8,361 7,778 7,293 7,805 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,736 6,290 5,712 6,244 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,625 1,488 1,581 1,561 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 249,207 9.0 28,438 29,638 28,290 26,028 26,545 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,839 25,269 23,664 24,126 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 385,389 4.8 43,506 44,111 44,930 41,016 41,350 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 346,436 4.4 39,082 39,517 40,132 36,989 37,232 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,854 2,980 2,599 2,600 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 160,819 6.1 17,790 18,359 17,688 16,537 16,933 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,641 15,056 14,227 14,376 447 Gasoline stations................................ 285,815 21.0 36,890 37,225 34,839 27,083 28,370 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 136,033 5.6 15,027 16,657 15,236 14,209 15,556 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 843 735 707 799 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,870 2,753 2,795 2,665 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,426 6,006 5,360 5,972 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,389 1,989 1,793 2,281 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 55,662 1.6 6,339 7,380 6,233 6,246 7,181 452 General merchandise stores....................... 370,729 6.3 40,764 43,462 42,711 38,074 40,727 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 145,269 -0.4 15,547 17,152 16,271 16,006 17,203 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 17,313 16,429 16,199 17,404 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 26,310 26,440 22,068 23,524 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 23,073 23,214 19,108 20,477 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,237 3,226 2,960 3,047 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 82,549 6.0 9,397 9,742 9,193 8,777 9,126 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 183,345 12.0 21,361 21,194 18,306 19,082 18,516 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 13,771 12,146 11,926 12,093 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 302,314 6.8 33,220 35,191 35,869 31,181 32,852 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2005
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Sep Aug 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Aug Sep Jul Aug Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.2 +6.5 -1.9 +8.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.1 +9.6 +1.0 +9.4 Retail .................................. +0.2 +6.7 -2.1 +8.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.8 -3.7 -11.2 +3.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -2.9 -4.6 -12.1 +3.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.2 +8.3 +1.2 +6.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.8 +5.9 +0.3 +6.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.0 +8.6 +0.7 +8.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.6 +5.6 +0.6 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.7 +5.2 +0.6 +5.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.1 +7.2 +0.2 +6.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ +4.0 +34.8 +4.6 +29.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.2 +5.7 +0.5 +6.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.9 +0.4 +0.3 +0.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +6.8 +0.3 +6.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.5 -2.0 -0.3 -0.8 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +2.2 +5.9 -1.9 +5.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.2 +11.1 +2.9 +12.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +5.2 +0.1 +7.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Sep Aug 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Aug Sep Jul Aug Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -6.2 +7.1 +1.2 +9.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -4.0 +10.6 +4.0 +10.7 Retail .................................. -6.3 +7.2 +1.5 +10.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -13.8 -4.1 -7.4 +7.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -14.1 -5.0 -8.4 +6.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -4.5 +9.3 +7.5 +8.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -7.2 +6.3 +7.5 +7.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -4.0 +9.3 +4.8 +11.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -1.4 +6.1 -1.8 +6.7 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -1.1 +5.7 -1.5 +6.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -3.1 +7.6 +3.8 +8.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.9 +36.2 +6.8 +31.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -9.8 +5.8 +9.3 +7.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -14.1 +1.5 +18.4 +2.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... -6.2 +7.1 +1.8 +6.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -9.4 -2.9 +5.4 -0.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -3.5 +7.1 +6.0 +6.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.8 +11.9 +15.8 +14.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -5.6 +6.5 -1.9 +7.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--SEPTEMBER 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301)763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero and therfore the change is not statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
2nd Quarter 2005 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
