CB-02-144FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Thursday, November 14, 2002
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $301.7 billion, virtually unchanged (±1.0%) from the previous month, but down 0.7 percent (±1.1%) from October 2001. Total sales for the August through October 2002 period were up 3.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2002 percent change was revised from –1.2 percent (±1.0%) to –1.3 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±1.1%) from September, but were 1.2 percent (±1.2%) below last year. Health and personal care stores were up 7.0 percent (±2.2%) from last year and sales of building materials and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 6.4 percent (±2.9%) from October 2001.
The scheduled release dates for 2003 are as follows: January 14, February 13, March 13, April 11, May 14, June 12, July 15, August 13, September 12, October 15, November 14, December 11.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2002
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Millions of dollars) 2002 2002 2002 2001 2001 NAICS Kind of Business Oct Sep Aug Code adv. prel. final Oct(r) Sep(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 301,695 301,593 305,616 303,871 286,322 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 229,965 228,444 228,595 220,164 217,991 Retail ....................................... 273,819 273,479 277,519 277,218 260,006 GAFO............................................. (*) 79,495 79,786 76,547 75,210 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 71,730 73,149 77,021 83,707 68,331 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 65,558 66,942 70,826 77,685 62,323 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,937 7,944 7,948 7,540 7,445 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,788 7,779 7,783 7,368 7,171 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 5,618 5,578 5,322 5,149 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,161 2,205 2,046 2,022 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 26,611 26,476 26,397 24,999 24,428 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 22,993 22,737 21,691 21,207 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,142 40,054 40,090 39,837 39,742 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,036 35,941 35,971 35,914 35,794 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,649 2,646 2,564 2,567 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 15,724 15,660 15,488 14,702 14,247 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 13,309 13,068 12,429 12,092 447 Gasoline stations................................ 19,864 19,574 19,556 18,833 20,051 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,694 14,128 14,363 14,180 13,549 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 843 851 889 825 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,752 2,765 2,769 2,671 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,745 1,780 1,788 1,739 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,492 7,497 7,477 7,268 7,080 452 General merchandise stores....................... 38,753 38,316 38,370 36,656 36,393 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 19,011 18,785 18,914 19,158 19,166 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 19,531 19,456 17,498 17,227 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 16,278 16,235 14,484 14,258 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,253 3,221 3,014 2,969 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,578 9,578 9,633 9,400 9,251 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 13,506 13,324 13,393 12,728 12,318 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 9,298 9,356 8,844 8,305 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 27,876 28,114 28,097 26,653 26,316 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2002
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 10 month total % Chg. 2002 2002 2002 2001 2001 NAICS Kind of Business 2002 from Oct Sep Aug Code 2001 adv. prel. final Oct Sep Retail & food services, total.................... 2,950,616 3.4 300,969 285,338 320,750 302,176 271,014 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,210,427 3.8 229,274 215,429 235,827 218,353 206,602 Retail ....................................... 2,669,384 3.2 272,870 257,871 290,546 275,416 244,987 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 71,560 81,489 72,591 68,392 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 740,189 2.2 71,695 69,909 84,923 83,823 64,412 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 677,771 2.3 65,165 63,863 78,121 77,530 58,584 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 54,430 66,948 68,338 50,390 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,046 6,802 6,293 5,828 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 76,740 4.2 7,993 7,555 8,290 7,630 7,110 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,162 4,482 4,127 3,940 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,393 3,808 3,503 3,170 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 71,896 7.4 7,116 7,064 7,759 6,768 6,544 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 4,938 5,466 4,747 4,562 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,126 2,293 2,021 1,982 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 266,748 5.6 28,026 25,757 27,490 26,347 23,443 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 23,131 24,533 23,383 20,931 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 395,971 2.0 39,889 38,436 41,364 39,257 38,687 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 356,957 1.8 35,964 34,647 37,122 35,483 35,007 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,445 2,757 2,505 2,405 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 151,198 8.5 15,661 14,705 15,395 14,673 13,278 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 12,457 12,885 12,491 11,258 447 Gasoline stations................................ 193,830 -4.8 20,361 19,672 21,414 19,229 20,171 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 132,529 3.0 14,135 12,619 15,206 13,368 12,229 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 769 884 882 762 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,595 2,782 2,744 2,513 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,391 5,450 4,672 4,245 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,590 2,289 1,613 1,614 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 67,040 5.9 6,645 6,860 7,836 6,432 6,563 452 General merchandise stores....................... 353,765 7.3 37,198 33,898 38,350 34,916 32,641 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 172,489 -0.6 18,015 16,229 18,757 17,969 16,824 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 16,527 19,105 18,320 17,151 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 17,669 19,593 16,947 15,817 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 14,780 16,446 14,035 13,160 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,889 3,147 2,912 2,657 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 91,785 1.3 9,728 8,992 9,956 9,418 8,616 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 127,693 1.1 14,423 12,404 12,563 13,555 11,293 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 8,824 9,038 9,383 7,782 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 281,232 5.4 28,099 27,467 30,204 26,760 26,027 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2002
Data adjusted for seasonal variatons, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Percent Change) Oct Sep 2002 2002 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2002 2001 2002 2001 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 +5.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.7 +4.5 -0.1 +4.8 Retail .................................. +0.1 -1.2 -1.5 +5.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.9 -14.3 -5.0 +7.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -2.1 -15.6 -5.5 +7.4 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.1 +5.3 -0.1 +6.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.1 +5.7 -0.1 +8.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +0.5 +6.4 +0.3 +8.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.2 +0.8 -0.1 +0.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +0.3 -0.1 +0.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.4 +7.0 +1.1 +9.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.5 +5.5 +0.1 -2.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +4.0 +3.6 -1.6 +4.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.1 +3.1 +0.3 +5.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.1 +5.7 -0.1 +5.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.2 -0.8 -0.7 -2.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... 0.0 +1.9 -0.6 +3.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.4 +6.1 -0.5 +8.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.8 +4.6 +0.1 +6.8 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Percent Change) Oct Sep 2002 2002 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2002 2001 2002 2001 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +5.5 -0.4 -11.0 +5.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +6.4 +5.0 -8.6 +4.3 Retail .................................. +5.8 -0.9 -11.2 +5.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.6 -14.5 -17.7 +8.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +2.0 -15.9 -18.3 +9.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +5.8 +4.8 -8.9 +6.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.7 +5.1 -9.0 +7.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +8.8 +6.4 -6.3 +9.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +3.8 +1.6 -7.1 -0.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +3.8 +1.4 -6.7 -1.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +6.5 +6.7 -4.5 +10.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ +3.5 +5.9 -8.1 -2.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +12.0 +5.7 -17.0 +3.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -3.1 +3.3 -12.5 +4.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +9.7 +6.5 -11.6 +3.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +11.0 +0.3 -13.5 -3.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +8.2 +3.3 -9.7 +4.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +16.3 +6.4 -1.3 +9.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +2.3 +5.0 -9.1 +5.5 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--OCTOBER 2002 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Source of Data: The Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey each month to provide an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. The Advance Monthly Retail Survey is a voluntary survey of a sub-sample of about 5,000 firms selected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Firms responding to this survey account for approximately 65% of the dollar volume estimate. Reliability of Estimates: The reliability of the estimates is a function of sampling and nonsampling errors. The margin of sampling error, as included on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Nonsampling error, on the other hand, can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling error. Additional survey information is available at www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
2nd Quarter 2002 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
