TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2005, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $351.6 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 5.7 percent (±0.5%) from October 2004. Total sales for the August through October 2005 period were up 6.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2005 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.7%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.2 percent (±0.8%)* from September, but were up 5.5 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 27.1 percent (±3.3%) from October 2004 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 13.1 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for November is scheduled to be released December 13, 2005 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2005
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Oct(3) Sept Aug Oct Sept Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 351,561 351,777 350,742 332,693 329,876 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 281,860 279,462 275,739 256,411 253,770 Retail ....................................... 317,010 317,547 316,807 300,390 297,797 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 89,683 89,148 85,236 84,572 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 69,701 72,315 75,003 76,282 76,106 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 63,551 66,238 68,914 70,603 70,508 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,466 9,403 9,252 8,682 8,611 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,503 8,467 8,374 7,931 7,955 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,905 6,795 6,377 6,382 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,562 1,579 1,554 1,573 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,906 28,298 27,826 25,550 25,769 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,068 24,614 22,503 22,754 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,492 44,169 43,895 41,919 41,812 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,715 39,481 39,283 37,657 37,590 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,882 2,856 2,701 2,668 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,555 18,478 18,269 17,293 17,226 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,724 15,654 14,810 14,758 447 Gasoline stations................................ 35,768 36,047 34,303 28,147 26,526 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,212 16,693 16,748 16,154 15,852 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 808 831 804 793 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,139 3,119 3,005 2,939 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,053 2,021 1,994 1,972 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,782 6,743 6,810 6,709 6,716 452 General merchandise stores....................... 45,556 45,027 44,651 42,529 42,196 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,904 17,641 17,743 18,004 18,042 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 27,386 26,908 24,525 24,154 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 23,890 23,468 21,225 20,883 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,496 3,440 3,300 3,271 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,508 9,611 9,395 9,088 9,009 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 22,561 22,296 22,281 20,106 20,019 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 13,837 13,912 12,579 12,501 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 34,551 34,230 33,935 32,303 32,079 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 10 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Oct(2) Sept Aug Oct Sept Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,414,156 7.4 343,963 342,347 364,805 325,699 319,134 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,640,329 8.3 279,803 270,851 281,065 255,412 243,939 Retail ....................................... 3,076,414 7.5 309,066 308,630 329,580 292,750 287,953 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 82,400 89,201 82,355 77,389 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 773,827 4.4 64,160 71,496 83,740 70,287 75,195 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 713,023 4.1 58,022 65,443 77,115 64,602 69,591 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 53,941 63,587 54,522 59,517 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,053 6,625 5,685 5,604 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 87,757 5.2 9,438 9,271 9,622 8,699 8,413 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,088 5,209 4,756 4,587 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,183 4,413 3,943 3,826 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 76,884 5.9 7,718 7,799 8,354 7,250 7,293 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,242 6,734 5,746 5,712 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,557 1,620 1,504 1,581 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 278,866 9.6 29,408 28,685 29,642 25,775 26,028 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,146 26,854 23,246 23,664 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 429,375 4.8 44,006 43,494 44,103 41,835 41,016 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 385,682 4.4 39,358 38,968 39,519 37,657 36,989 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,850 2,853 2,712 2,599 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 179,083 6.2 18,258 17,813 18,342 17,016 16,537 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,189 15,623 14,662 14,227 447 Gasoline stations................................ 323,284 21.7 37,163 37,237 37,184 29,329 27,083 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 152,788 5.8 16,673 15,015 16,751 15,558 14,209 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 722 842 811 707 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,988 2,891 3,011 2,795 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,674 6,475 6,084 5,360 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,872 2,383 1,894 1,793 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 61,591 1.4 5,921 6,338 7,389 5,978 6,246 452 General merchandise stores....................... 415,198 6.3 44,578 40,656 43,461 41,707 38,074 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 162,600 -0.4 17,407 15,468 17,155 17,447 16,006 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,619 17,317 17,654 16,199 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 25,188 26,306 24,260 22,068 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 22,003 23,069 21,013 19,108 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,185 3,237 3,247 2,960 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 91,963 5.8 9,267 9,518 9,768 8,997 8,777 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 205,798 11.8 22,476 21,308 21,224 20,319 19,082 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 13,270 13,801 12,516 11,926 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 337,742 6.8 34,897 33,717 35,225 32,949 31,181 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2005
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Oct Sept 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sept Oct Aug Sept Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.1 +5.7 +0.3 +6.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.9 +9.9 +1.4 +10.1 Retail .................................. -0.2 +5.5 +0.2 +6.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -3.6 -8.6 -3.6 -5.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -4.1 -10.0 -3.9 -6.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.7 +9.0 +1.6 +9.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.4 +7.2 +1.1 +6.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +2.1 +13.1 +1.7 +9.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.7 +6.1 +0.6 +5.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.6 +5.5 +0.5 +5.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.4 +7.3 +1.1 +7.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.8 +27.1 +5.1 +35.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +3.1 +6.5 -0.3 +5.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.6 +1.1 -1.0 +0.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.2 +7.1 +0.8 +6.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.5 -0.6 -0.6 -2.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.1 +4.6 +2.3 +6.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.2 +12.2 +0.1 +11.4 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.9 +7.0 +0.9 +6.7 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Oct Sept 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sept Oct Aug Sept Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.5 +5.6 -6.2 +7.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +3.3 +9.5 -3.6 +11.0 Retail .................................. +0.1 +5.6 -6.4 +7.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -10.3 -8.7 -14.6 -4.9 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -11.3 -10.2 -15.1 -6.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.8 +8.5 -3.6 +10.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.0 +6.5 -6.6 +6.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +2.5 +14.1 -3.2 +10.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.2 +5.2 -1.4 +6.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.0 +4.5 -1.4 +5.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +2.5 +7.3 -2.9 +7.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.2 +26.7 +0.1 +37.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +11.0 +7.2 -10.4 +5.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -6.6 -1.0 -14.2 +1.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +9.6 +6.9 -6.5 +6.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +12.5 -0.2 -9.8 -3.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -2.6 +3.0 -2.6 +8.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +5.5 +10.6 +0.4 +11.7 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +3.5 +5.9 -4.3 +8.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--OCTOBER 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
2nd Quarter 2005 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau Service Sector Statistics Division
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