TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
| Special Notice – This is our final report on the current sample. Beginning with the December 13, 2006 release for November 2006, data will be based on a new sample. In addition, a special release providing estimates on a new sample basis is tentatively scheduled for the week of November 27, 2006. A new sample for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey is selected about once every two and a half years. For further information on the sample revision, see our website at http://www.census.gov/retail. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 4.5 percent (±0.7%) from October 2005. Total sales for the August through October 2006 period were up 5.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2006 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent (± 0.7%)* to -0.8 percent (± 0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from September, but were 4.2 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Motor vehicles and parts dealers were up 10.1 percent (±2.3%) from October 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 8.6 percent (±4.5%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Oct(3) Sep Aug Oct Sep Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 363,673 364,482 367,406 347,916 346,582 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 286,828 288,095 291,556 278,145 275,075 Retail ....................................... 327,273 328,188 331,490 314,161 313,145 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 95,092 94,011 90,800 88,718 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,845 76,387 75,850 69,771 71,507 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,281 69,939 69,501 63,647 65,413 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,986 10,056 10,076 9,536 9,590 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,833 8,837 8,830 8,552 8,468 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,305 7,257 6,903 6,843 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,532 1,573 1,649 1,625 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,983 29,081 29,600 28,460 27,944 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,439 26,021 25,117 24,683 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,967 45,515 45,743 43,985 43,764 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,693 40,281 40,579 39,219 39,045 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,261 3,231 2,984 2,961 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,125 18,874 18,888 17,634 17,660 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,806 15,830 14,686 14,683 447 Gasoline stations................................ 31,357 33,354 37,537 35,838 36,313 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,489 18,462 17,938 17,191 16,524 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 798 781 777 763 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,360 3,250 3,126 3,063 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,284 2,197 2,126 2,036 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,386 7,401 7,274 6,961 6,653 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,512 46,634 46,220 45,072 44,058 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,634 17,752 17,628 17,986 17,464 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,882 28,592 27,086 26,594 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 25,364 25,107 23,650 23,189 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,518 3,485 3,436 3,405 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,249 10,034 9,907 9,489 9,416 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,541 23,553 23,627 21,672 21,248 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,613 15,410 13,961 13,554 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 36,400 36,294 35,916 33,755 33,437 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings(442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 10 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Oct(2) Sep Aug Oct Sep Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,576,173 6.4 354,525 352,344 382,600 339,826 336,696 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,806,673 7.9 283,562 278,516 298,748 275,623 266,658 Retail ....................................... 3,220,179 6.3 318,125 316,340 345,319 305,801 303,761 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 88,306 94,295 87,041 82,063 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 769,500 1.4 70,963 73,828 83,852 64,203 70,038 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 705,536 1.1 64,307 67,561 76,938 58,110 63,974 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 55,283 62,997 47,051 52,130 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,267 6,914 6,093 6,064 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 96,669 8.4 9,766 9,945 10,620 9,355 9,446 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,186 5,544 4,939 5,051 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,759 5,076 4,416 4,395 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 81,458 5.6 8,008 8,152 8,776 7,781 7,807 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,648 7,126 6,178 6,179 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,504 1,650 1,603 1,628 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 302,817 10.6 29,767 28,567 31,665 28,657 28,193 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 25,770 28,623 25,795 25,646 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 446,442 4.7 44,859 44,995 46,594 43,508 43,050 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 397,748 4.0 39,838 39,918 41,472 38,905 38,498 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,222 3,228 2,939 2,914 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 183,396 7.4 18,838 18,044 18,869 17,281 16,971 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,205 15,830 14,422 14,184 447 Gasoline stations................................ 359,939 11.0 32,862 34,555 41,178 37,594 37,330 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 163,497 7.0 17,685 16,824 17,914 16,579 15,015 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 716 790 778 687 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,229 2,990 3,101 2,940 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,646 7,074 6,644 5,775 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,138 2,588 2,045 1,879 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 66,671 7.3 6,426 7,127 7,820 6,077 6,314 452 General merchandise stores....................... 431,528 5.4 44,653 42,588 45,133 43,906 40,059 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 161,013 -1.0 16,653 15,773 16,963 17,406 15,460 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,146 17,370 17,855 15,867 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 26,815 28,170 26,500 24,599 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 23,614 24,831 23,153 21,473 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,201 3,339 3,347 3,126 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 97,199 8.4 10,310 9,775 10,190 9,350 9,272 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 221,063 12.5 23,988 21,940 22,708 21,510 20,266 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 14,676 15,271 13,682 13,066 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 355,994 8.1 36,400 36,004 37,281 34,025 32,935 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Oct Sep 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.2 +4.5 -0.8 +5.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.4 +3.1 -1.2 +4.7 Retail .................................. -0.3 +4.2 -1.0 +4.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.6 +10.1 +0.7 +6.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.5 +10.4 +0.6 +6.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.7 +4.7 -0.2 +4.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... 0.0 +3.3 +0.1 +4.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.3 +1.8 -1.8 +4.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.0 +4.5 -0.5 +4.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.0 +3.8 -0.7 +3.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.3 +8.5 -0.1 +6.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ -6.0 -12.5 -11.1 -8.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.1 +7.6 +2.9 +11.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.2 +6.1 +1.7 +11.2 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.3 +3.2 +0.9 +5.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.7 -2.0 +0.7 +1.6 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +2.1 +8.0 +1.3 +6.6 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.1 +8.6 -0.3 +10.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.3 +7.8 +1.1 +8.5 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Oct Sep 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.6 +4.3 -7.9 +4.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.8 +2.9 -6.8 +4.4 Retail .................................. +0.6 +4.0 -8.4 +4.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -3.9 +10.5 -12.0 +5.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -4.8 +10.7 -12.2 +5.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.8 +4.4 -6.4 +5.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.8 +2.9 -7.1 +4.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +4.2 +3.9 -9.8 +1.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.3 +3.1 -3.4 +4.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.2 +2.4 -3.7 +3.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +4.4 +9.0 -4.4 +6.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.9 -12.6 -16.1 -7.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +5.1 +6.7 -6.1 +12.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -9.8 +5.7 -8.9 +12.9 452 General merchandise stores....................... +4.8 +1.7 -5.6 +6.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +5.6 -4.3 -7.0 +2.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +5.5 +10.3 -4.1 +5.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +9.3 +11.5 -3.4 +8.3 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.1 +7.0 -3.4 +9.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--OCTOBER 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter 2006 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
