THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2006, AT 10:00 A.M. EST
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce released revisions today to the monthly retail trade sales estimates for October 2006, September 2006, August 2006, October 2005, and September 2005. These revisions reflect the introduction of a new sample beginning with the restatement of the September and October 2006 estimates, and provide for a consistent time series between the old and new samples. Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences were revised for October 2006, September 2006, August 2006, October 2005, and September 2005. Estimates not adjusted for seasonality were revised for October 2006 and September 2006.
October 2006: The advance estimate for October 2006 retail and food services sales, after adjustment for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.8 billion, revised upward $0.2 billion from the original October 2006 sales estimate that was released on November 14, 2006.
September 2006: The preliminary estimate for September 2006 retail and food services sales, after adjustment for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $365.2 billion, revised upward $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent from the preliminary September 2006 sales estimate that was released on November 14, 2006.
The Census Bureau conducts a major sample revision about once every five years to reflect the results of the latest economic census, ensure the sample remains representative of the retail and food service industries, and redistribute respondent burden for small and medium size companies. The sample for the advance estimates is a subset of the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample that generates the preliminary and final estimates. In addition, the advance sample is reselected from the MRTS sample once in between major sample revisions. The previous MRTS sample was introduced with the March 2001 data month and the previous advance sample was introduced with the October 2003 data month.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for November is scheduled to be released December 13, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Oct(3) Sep Aug Oct Sep Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 363,844 365,177 367,491 348,044 346,437 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 287,482 288,765 291,703 278,057 275,015 Retail ....................................... 327,435 328,910 331,575 314,289 312,966 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 95,238 94,051 90,805 88,649 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 76,362 76,412 75,788 69,987 71,422 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 69,842 69,931 69,439 63,857 65,346 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,148 10,178 10,124 9,507 9,513 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,797 8,822 8,825 8,557 8,465 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,303 7,257 6,903 6,843 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,519 1,568 1,654 1,622 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,137 29,237 29,642 28,430 27,932 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,501 26,021 25,117 24,683 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 46,039 45,535 45,789 43,946 43,763 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,751 40,299 40,619 39,179 39,045 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,246 3,231 2,987 2,964 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,169 18,951 18,907 17,634 17,641 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,838 15,846 14,686 14,668 447 Gasoline stations................................ 31,578 33,660 37,537 35,838 36,313 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,514 18,534 17,938 17,212 16,528 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 903 778 779 775 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,331 3,250 3,139 3,066 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,274 2,193 2,132 2,038 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,331 7,363 7,261 6,977 6,667 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,516 46,619 46,224 45,069 44,062 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,627 17,744 17,628 17,986 17,464 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,875 28,596 27,083 26,598 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 25,363 25,107 23,650 23,189 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,512 3,489 3,433 3,409 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,349 10,040 9,903 9,491 9,407 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,495 23,559 23,637 21,641 21,253 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,577 15,410 13,961 13,582 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 36,409 36,267 35,916 33,755 33,471 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 10 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Oct(2) Sep Aug Oct Sep Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,577,085 6.5 354,586 353,195 382,600 339,826 336,696 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,808,203 8.0 284,368 279,240 298,748 275,623 266,658 Retail ....................................... 3,221,109 6.3 318,177 317,218 345,319 305,801 303,761 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 88,514 94,295 87,041 82,063 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 768,882 1.3 70,218 73,955 83,852 64,203 70,038 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 704,917 1.0 63,626 67,623 76,938 58,110 63,974 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 55,164 62,997 47,051 52,130 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,332 6,914 6,093 6,064 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 97,091 8.8 9,965 10,168 10,620 9,355 9,446 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,304 5,544 4,939 5,051 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,864 5,076 4,416 4,395 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 81,398 5.6 7,959 8,141 8,776 7,781 7,807 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,646 7,126 6,178 6,179 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,495 1,650 1,603 1,628 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 303,187 10.7 29,958 28,746 31,665 28,657 28,193 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 25,858 28,623 25,795 25,646 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 446,546 4.8 44,981 44,977 46,594 43,508 43,050 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 397,824 4.0 39,936 39,896 41,472 38,905 38,498 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,204 3,228 2,939 2,914 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 183,589 7.5 18,901 18,174 18,869 17,281 16,971 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,252 15,830 14,422 14,184 447 Gasoline stations................................ 360,488 11.2 33,094 34,872 41,178 37,594 37,330 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 163,515 7.0 17,664 16,863 17,914 16,579 15,015 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 793 790 778 687 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,194 2,990 3,101 2,940 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,579 7,074 6,644 5,775 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,128 2,588 2,045 1,879 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 66,550 7.1 6,356 7,076 7,820 6,077 6,314 452 General merchandise stores....................... 431,519 5.4 44,664 42,568 45,133 43,906 40,059 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 160,999 -1.0 16,646 15,766 16,963 17,406 15,460 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,136 17,370 17,855 15,867 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 26,802 28,170 26,500 24,599 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 23,613 24,831 23,153 21,473 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,189 3,339 3,347 3,126 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 97,325 8.5 10,431 9,780 10,190 9,350 9,272 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 221,019 12.5 23,986 21,898 22,708 21,510 20,266 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 14,580 15,271 13,682 13,066 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 355,976 8.1 36,409 35,977 37,281 34,025 32,935 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--October 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Oct Sep 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.4 +4.5 -0.6 +5.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.4 +3.4 -1.0 +5.0 Retail .................................. -0.4 +4.2 -0.8 +5.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -0.1 +9.1 +0.8 +7.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -0.1 +9.4 +0.7 +7.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.3 +6.7 +0.5 +7.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.3 +2.8 0.0 +4.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.3 +2.5 -1.4 +4.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.1 +4.8 -0.6 +4.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.1 +4.0 -0.8 +3.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.2 +8.7 +0.2 +7.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ -6.2 -11.9 -10.3 -7.3 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.1 +7.6 +3.3 +12.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.4 +5.1 +1.4 +10.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.2 +3.2 +0.9 +5.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.7 -2.0 +0.7 +1.6 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +3.1 +9.0 +1.4 +6.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.3 +8.6 -0.3 +10.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.4 +7.9 +1.0 +8.4 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Oct Sep 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Sep Oct Aug Sep Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.4 +4.3 -7.7 +4.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.8 +3.2 -6.5 +4.7 Retail .................................. +0.3 +4.0 -8.1 +4.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -5.1 +9.4 -11.8 +5.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -5.9 +9.5 -12.1 +5.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -2.0 +6.5 -4.3 +7.6 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -2.2 +2.3 -7.2 +4.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +4.2 +4.5 -9.2 +2.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 0.0 +3.4 -3.5 +4.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.1 +2.7 -3.8 +3.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +4.0 +9.4 -3.7 +7.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ -5.1 -12.0 -15.3 -6.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +4.8 +6.5 -5.9 +12.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -10.2 +4.6 -9.5 +12.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +4.9 +1.7 -5.7 +6.3 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +5.6 -4.4 -7.1 +2.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +6.7 +11.6 -4.0 +5.5 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +9.5 +11.5 -3.6 +8.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.2 +7.0 -3.5 +9.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--OCTOBER 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
