CB-04-234FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Monday, December 13, 2004
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.4 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month and up 7.2 percent (±1.0%) from November 2003. Total sales for the September through November 2004 period were up 7.8 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2004 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.8%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent (±0.8%) from October 2004 and were 7.2 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 24.0 percent (±2.3%) from November 2003 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 12.8 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
Address inquiries concerning this report to Scott Scheleur, Service Sector Statistics Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Telephone: (301) 763-2713.
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2004
(Total sales estimtes are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Data adjusted(2) for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars) 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Nov(3) Oct Sep Code adv. prel. final Nov(r) Oct(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 344,375 344,040 341,461 321,202 317,127 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 266,052 264,699 261,730 244,986 243,281 Retail ....................................... 311,050 310,775 308,658 290,171 286,388 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 86,314 85,491 82,145 81,345 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 78,323 79,341 79,731 76,216 73,846 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,141 72,187 72,730 69,297 66,949 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,822 8,824 8,747 8,423 8,416 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,600 8,517 8,541 8,232 8,181 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,099 6,128 5,856 5,816 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,418 2,413 2,376 2,365 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,649 31,298 31,294 28,051 28,174 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 27,710 27,780 24,912 25,003 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,957 44,685 44,490 42,590 42,641 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,335 40,052 39,892 38,235 38,245 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,865 2,833 2,735 2,760 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,096 17,094 17,028 16,554 16,401 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,583 14,531 14,061 14,035 447 Gasoline stations................................ 28,039 27,773 26,386 22,603 22,162 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,066 16,090 15,709 15,306 15,074 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 980 963 887 889 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,090 3,014 2,949 2,858 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,973 1,912 1,947 1,931 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,752 6,835 6,815 6,682 6,601 452 General merchandise stores....................... 42,919 42,730 42,340 40,226 39,797 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,875 17,891 17,791 17,708 17,778 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 24,839 24,549 22,518 22,019 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 21,311 21,038 19,136 18,637 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,528 3,511 3,382 3,382 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,394 9,340 9,267 8,931 8,830 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 18,433 18,248 18,310 16,357 16,265 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,360 11,326 10,444 10,382 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,325 33,265 32,803 31,031 30,739 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.htmlTABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2004
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 11 month total % Chg. 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2004 from Nov(2) Oct Sep Code 2003 adv. prel. final Nov Oct Retail & food services, total.................... 3649398 7.8 342,527 338,111 331,974 314,234 317,990 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2787847 8.9 271,092 263,137 251,861 247,816 244,789 Retail ....................................... 3291967 7.6 310,802 304,181 299,991 284,444 286,913 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 83,278 78,429 90,264 78,786 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 861,551 4.6 71,435 74,974 80,113 66,418 73,201 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 783,530 4.6 64,454 67,784 73,021 59,942 65,945 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 56,690 61,931 51,058 55,646 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 7,190 7,092 6,476 7,256 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 93,998 7.1 9,731 8,798 8,511 9,105 8,534 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,759 4,591 4,753 4,463 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,039 3,920 4,352 4,071 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 87,870 8.3 9,494 7,841 7,921 8,994 7,634 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,520 5,491 6,623 5,293 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,321 2,430 2,371 2,341 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 339,943 15.0 30,595 31,435 31,718 25,578 29,717 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 28,514 29,002 23,343 27,003 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 479,849 4.4 44,522 44,472 43,594 42,592 42,657 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 431,682 4.0 39,932 39,932 39,214 38,235 38,321 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,871 2,742 2,803 2,785 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 183,730 6.1 16,686 16,855 16,381 15,776 16,549 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,452 14,022 13,527 14,203 447 Gasoline stations................................ 287,293 16.4 26,945 28,634 26,571 21,405 23,071 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 161,571 6.6 17,297 15,467 14,170 16,522 14,577 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 994 865 1,001 898 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,075 2,857 3,052 2,889 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,818 5,120 6,262 5,340 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,857 1,757 1,881 1,815 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 69,262 2.9 7,427 6,117 6,345 7,350 5,908 452 General merchandise stores....................... 439,025 7.0 47,067 41,866 38,227 45,000 38,876 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 182,916 -0.3 20,597 17,339 15,915 20,729 17,241 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 17,521 16,090 20,967 17,445 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 24,527 22,312 24,271 21,635 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 21,055 19,145 20,514 18,283 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,472 3,167 3,757 3,352 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 99,050 5.8 9,483 9,201 9,040 8,674 8,990 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 188,825 12.4 20,120 18,521 17,400 17,030 17,199 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 11,405 10,975 10,945 10,860 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 357,431 9.6 31,725 33,930 31,983 29,790 31,077 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (a) Advanced estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.htmlTABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2004
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Nov Oct 2004 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Oct Nov Sep Oct Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 prel. final final final Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.1 +7.2 +0.8 +8.5 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.5 +8.6 +1.1 +8.8 Retail .................................. +0.1 +7.2 +0.7 +8.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.3 +2.8 -0.5 +7.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -1.4 +2.7 -0.7 +7.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 0.0 +4.7 +0.9 +4.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.0 +4.5 -0.3 +4.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.1 +12.8 0.0 +11.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.6 +5.6 +0.4 +4.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.7 +5.5 +0.4 +4.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 0.0 +3.3 +0.4 +4.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.0 +24.0 +5.3 +25.3 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.1 +5.0 +2.4 +6.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -1.2 +1.0 +0.3 +3.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.4 +6.7 +0.9 +7.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.1 +0.9 +0.6 +0.6 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.6 +5.2 +0.8 +5.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.0 +12.7 -0.3 +12.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +7.4 +1.4 +8.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Nov Oct 2004 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Oct Nov Sep Oct Code 2004 2003 2004 2003 prel. final final final Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.3 +9.0 +1.8 +6.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +3.0 +9.4 +4.5 +7.5 Retail .................................. +2.2 +9.3 +1.4 +6.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -4.7 +7.6 -6.4 +2.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -4.9 +7.5 -7.2 +2.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +10.6 +6.9 +3.4 +3.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +21.1 +5.6 -1.0 +2.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.7 +19.6 -0.9 +5.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.1 +4.5 +2.0 +4.3 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 0.0 +4.4 +1.8 +4.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.0 +5.8 +2.9 +1.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ -5.9 +25.9 +7.8 +24.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +11.8 +4.7 +9.2 +6.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +21.4 +1.0 -3.6 +3.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +12.4 +4.6 +9.5 +7.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +18.8 -0.6 +8.9 +0.6 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +3.1 +9.3 +1.8 +2.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +8.6 +18.1 +6.4 +7.7 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -6.5 +6.5 +6.1 +9.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--NOVEMBER 2004 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur(301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html. Reliability of Estimates: Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the estimated change is different from zero. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing.
3rd Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
