WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
| Notice of Sample Revision: A new sample was introduced effective with the restated October 2006 advance estimates that were released on November 30, 2006. This release, and all subsequent retail estimates, will be based on this new sample. For more information please visit http://www.census.gov/retail. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $368.9 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month and up 5.6 percent (±0.7%) from November 2005. Total sales for the September through November 2006 period were up 5.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2006 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent (± 0.7%)* to -0.1 percent (± 0.2%)*.
Retail trade sales were up 1.1 percent (±0.8%) from October and were 5.3 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 10.1 percent (±4.5%) from November 2005 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 8.7 percent (±1.7%) from last year.
The scheduled release dates for 2007 are as follows: January 12, February 14, March 13, April 16, May 11, June 13, July 13, August 13, September 14, October 12, November 14, December 13.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for December is scheduled to be released January 12, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Nov(3) Oct Sep Nov Oct Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 368,861 365,075 365,319 349,459 348,095 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 290,955 287,878 288,857 276,261 278,445 Retail ....................................... 332,165 328,648 329,040 315,436 314,307 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 94,870 95,168 90,482 90,681 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,906 77,197 76,462 73,198 69,650 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,665 70,848 70,096 66,859 63,508 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,071 10,086 10,159 9,595 9,507 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,279 8,874 8,873 8,544 8,587 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,373 7,354 6,899 6,934 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,501 1,519 1,645 1,653 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,817 29,289 29,152 28,607 28,520 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,533 25,397 25,227 25,141 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 46,546 46,151 45,576 43,913 43,985 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 41,143 40,814 40,340 39,096 39,219 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,250 3,248 3,026 2,996 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,337 19,163 18,941 17,787 17,652 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,136 15,842 14,821 14,582 447 Gasoline stations................................ 32,786 32,061 33,868 33,564 36,044 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,332 18,341 18,454 17,185 17,173 44811 Men's clothing stores(5)....................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,278 3,316 3,177 3,129 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,224 2,259 2,159 2,128 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,353 7,292 7,356 6,855 6,993 452 General merchandise stores....................... 46,599 46,409 46,562 44,886 44,952 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,643 17,641 17,736 18,018 17,983 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(6)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,768 28,826 26,868 26,969 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 25,268 25,298 23,513 23,529 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,500 3,528 3,355 3,440 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,126 10,089 10,037 9,493 9,558 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,013 23,696 23,600 21,809 21,686 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,888 15,710 14,094 14,004 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 36,696 36,427 36,279 34,023 33,788 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) With the introduction of a new sample with estimates for the September 2006 data month, we have identified a change in the seasonal pattern for estimates in Men's clothing stores (NAICS 44811). As a result, we have temporarily suspended the release of seasonally adjusted estimates for this industry. Because of the seasonal adjustment methodology, we have also suppressed from publication all estimates back through the September 2005 data month for this industry. We will continue to provide estimates not adjusted for seasonality; however, these estimates should be used with caution as the new sample estimates may not be comparable with estimates from the old sample. We plan to evaluate the seasonal adjustment of this industry in spring 2007 as part of our annual revision process. (6) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 11 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Nov(2) Oct Sep Nov Oct Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,945,238 6.4 367,812 355,436 352,686 346,993 339,826 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 3,105,656 7.7 298,054 284,068 278,939 281,633 275,623 Retail ....................................... 3,554,481 6.3 333,024 319,009 316,734 314,773 305,801 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 90,263 88,525 98,987 87,041 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 839,582 1.9 69,758 71,368 73,747 65,360 64,203 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 769,848 1.7 63,710 64,968 67,502 59,237 58,110 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 52,856 55,016 48,798 47,051 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,400 6,245 6,123 6,093 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 108,030 8.3 10,947 9,925 10,200 10,506 9,355 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,093 5,337 5,341 4,939 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,832 4,863 5,165 4,416 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 91,797 6.0 10,387 7,972 8,140 9,528 7,781 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,510 6,648 7,844 6,178 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,462 1,492 1,684 1,603 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 331,840 10.1 28,814 29,961 28,582 27,583 28,657 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,810 25,702 24,899 25,795 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 493,393 5.0 46,885 44,963 44,957 43,776 43,508 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 439,153 4.2 41,390 39,875 39,896 38,940 38,905 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,130 3,212 3,083 2,939 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 202,409 7.5 18,931 18,837 18,127 17,396 17,281 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,039 15,208 14,480 14,422 447 Gasoline stations................................ 392,192 10.1 31,409 33,343 34,918 32,054 37,594 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 183,306 7.0 19,955 17,504 16,859 18,479 16,579 44811 Men's clothing stores(4)........................ (*) (*) (*) 890 796 876 778 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,216 3,187 3,329 3,101 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,131 6,579 7,563 6,644 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,106 2,128 2,079 2,045 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 74,274 6.9 7,772 6,308 7,076 7,390 6,077 452 General merchandise stores....................... 483,500 5.4 51,962 44,694 42,557 49,509 43,906 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 182,274 -0.8 21,245 16,681 15,761 21,103 17,406 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (*) (*) 17,070 16,131 21,658 17,855 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 28,013 26,796 28,406 26,500 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 24,611 23,603 24,665 23,153 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,402 3,193 3,741 3,347 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 107,154 7.9 10,218 10,068 9,754 9,585 9,350 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 247,004 12.2 25,986 24,066 21,817 23,607 21,510 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 15,904 14,563 15,391 13,682 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 390,757 8.1 34,788 36,427 35,952 32,220 34,025 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) With the introduction of a new sample with estimates for the September 2006 data month, we have identified a change in the seasonal pattern for estimates in Men's clothing stores (NAICS 44811). As a result, we have temporarily suspended the release of seasonally adjusted estimates for this industry. Because of the seasonal adjustment methodology, we have also suppressed from publication all estimates back through the September 2005 data month for this industry. We will continue to provide estimates not adjusted for seasonality; however, these estimates should be used with caution as the new sample estimates may not be comparable with estimates from the old sample. We plan to evaluate the seasonal adjustment of this industry in spring 2007 as part of our annual revision process.
(5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Nov Oct 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Oct Nov Sep Oct Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.0 +5.6 -0.1 +4.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.1 +5.3 -0.3 +3.4 Retail .................................. +1.1 +5.3 -0.1 +4.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.9 +6.4 +1.0 +10.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +1.2 +7.2 +1.1 +11.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.1 +5.0 -0.7 +6.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +4.6 +8.6 0.0 +3.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.8 +4.2 +0.5 +2.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.9 +6.0 +1.3 +4.9 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.8 +5.2 +1.2 +4.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.9 +8.7 +1.2 +8.6 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.3 -2.3 -5.3 -11.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 0.0 +6.7 -0.6 +6.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.8 +7.3 -0.9 +4.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.4 +3.8 -0.3 +3.2 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 0.0 -2.1 -0.5 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.4 +6.7 +0.5 +5.6 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.3 +10.1 +0.4 +9.3 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.7 +7.9 +0.4 +7.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Nov Oct 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Oct Nov Sep Oct Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +3.5 +6.0 +0.8 +4.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +4.9 +5.8 +1.8 +3.1 Retail .................................. +4.4 +5.8 +0.7 +4.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -2.3 +6.7 -3.2 +11.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -1.9 +7.6 -3.8 +11.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +10.3 +4.2 -2.7 +6.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +30.3 +9.0 -2.1 +2.5 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -3.8 +4.5 +4.8 +4.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +4.3 +7.1 0.0 +3.3 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +3.8 +6.3 -0.1 +2.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.5 +8.8 +3.9 +9.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -5.8 -2.0 -4.5 -11.3 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +14.0 +8.0 +3.8 +5.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +23.2 +5.2 -10.9 +3.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... +16.3 +5.0 +5.0 +1.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +27.4 +0.7 +5.8 -4.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.5 +6.6 +3.2 +7.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +8.0 +10.1 +10.3 +11.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -4.5 +8.0 +1.3 +7.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--NOVEMBER 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
