FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EST


Scott Scheleur / Aneta Lukasik                                                                                                                                                                                            CB07-166
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


NOVEMBER 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $385.8 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and 6.3 percent (±0.8%) above November 2006. Total sales for the September through November 2007 period were up 5.4 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2007 percent change was unrevised from +0.2 percent (± 0.2%)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.3 percent (±0.7%) from October 2007 and were 6.3 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 25.0 percent (±2.8%) from November 2006 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 10.7 percent (±2.0%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for December is scheduled to be released January 15, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. EST.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Nov(3) Oct Sep Nov Oct Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 385,753 381,088 380,231 362,964 363,019 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 308,090 302,604 301,264 286,768 287,293 Retail ....................................... 347,518 342,974 342,381 326,820 326,897 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 98,695 98,648 95,111 95,616 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,663 78,484 78,967 76,196 75,726 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,209 71,981 72,578 70,091 69,545 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,367 10,265 10,268 10,178 10,221 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,716 9,478 9,424 9,256 9,111 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,622 7,568 7,394 7,379 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,856 1,856 1,862 1,732 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,498 29,136 29,362 29,251 29,368 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,121 25,426 25,694 25,881 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 48,837 48,350 48,153 45,970 46,311 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 43,417 43,003 42,805 40,885 41,225 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,415 3,439 3,215 3,189 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 20,060 19,939 19,944 19,361 19,264 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,750 16,700 16,404 16,405 447 Gasoline stations................................ 39,438 36,919 35,806 31,562 31,389 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 19,312 18,830 18,928 18,110 18,353 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,435 3,433 3,257 3,314 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,203 2,239 2,314 2,337 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,786 7,619 7,601 7,112 7,230 452 General merchandise stores....................... 48,876 48,421 48,390 46,543 46,673 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,495 17,324 17,423 17,566 17,663 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 31,097 30,967 28,977 29,010 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 27,502 27,402 25,442 25,516 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,595 3,565 3,535 3,494 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,354 10,406 10,522 10,139 10,114 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 25,611 25,127 25,016 23,142 23,137 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 17,038 16,924 15,666 15,710 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,235 38,114 37,850 36,144 36,122 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2007

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 11 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from Nov(2) Oct Sep Nov Oct Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 4,077,509 4.3 385,489 374,724 359,497 360,754 352,353 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 3,224,012 4.7 316,481 299,042 284,784 292,924 281,738 Retail ....................................... 3,667,185 4.2 348,860 336,648 322,366 326,634 316,195 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 93,475 89,976 104,565 90,296 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 853,497 2.9 69,008 75,682 74,713 67,830 70,615 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 783,655 2.9 62,735 68,886 68,586 61,890 64,329 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 56,881 56,371 51,698 53,368 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,796 6,127 5,940 6,286 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 111,636 2.2 11,341 10,162 9,898 11,063 9,976 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,286 5,394 5,639 5,213 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,876 4,504 5,424 4,763 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 96,638 3.4 11,091 8,421 8,403 10,452 8,063 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,723 6,690 8,400 6,464 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,698 1,713 2,052 1,599 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 328,779 -1.3 28,234 30,315 27,802 28,026 29,924 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,653 24,689 25,077 26,890 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 518,722 5.8 49,265 47,672 46,822 46,177 45,222 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 463,125 5.6 43,634 42,487 41,778 41,008 40,359 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,319 3,274 3,295 3,055 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 214,946 6.0 19,759 19,979 18,648 18,954 18,937 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,884 15,631 16,125 16,241 447 Gasoline stations................................ 392,007 5.0 37,624 37,325 35,770 30,015 31,609 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 193,758 5.8 21,194 17,925 17,002 19,580 17,379 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 837 769 920 873 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,373 3,230 3,449 3,238 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,080 6,604 8,016 7,000 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,104 2,053 2,270 2,204 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 77,264 3.6 8,495 6,720 7,031 7,631 6,312 452 General merchandise stores....................... 505,546 4.8 54,309 46,142 43,830 51,758 44,587 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 179,851 -1.0 21,141 16,348 15,257 21,179 16,620 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,762 15,650 21,761 17,067 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 29,794 28,573 30,579 27,967 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 26,264 25,347 26,638 24,546 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,530 3,226 3,941 3,421 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 110,779 3.6 10,518 10,477 10,001 10,182 10,042 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 263,613 9.3 28,022 25,828 22,446 24,966 23,529 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 17,413 15,333 16,982 15,867 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 410,324 5.7 36,629 38,076 37,131 34,120 36,158 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Nov Oct 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Oct Nov Sep Oct Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.2 +6.3 +0.2 +5.0 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.8 +7.4 +0.4 +5.3 Retail .................................. +1.3 +6.3 +0.2 +4.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -1.0 +1.9 -0.6 +3.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -1.1 +1.6 -0.8 +3.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.0 +1.9 0.0 +0.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +2.5 +5.0 +0.6 +4.0 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +1.2 +0.8 -0.8 -0.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.0 +6.2 +0.4 +4.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.0 +6.2 +0.5 +4.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.6 +3.6 0.0 +3.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +6.8 +25.0 +3.1 +17.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +2.6 +6.6 -0.5 +2.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +2.2 +9.5 +0.2 +5.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +5.0 +0.1 +3.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -1.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.5 +2.1 -1.1 +2.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +1.9 +10.7 +0.4 +8.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.3 +5.8 +0.7 +5.5 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2007

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Nov Oct 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Oct Nov Sep Oct Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +2.9 +6.9 +4.2 +6.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +5.8 +8.0 +5.0 +6.1 Retail .................................. +3.6 +6.8 +4.4 +6.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -8.8 +1.7 +1.3 +7.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -8.9 +1.4 +0.4 +7.1 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.6 +2.5 +2.7 +1.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +31.7 +6.1 +0.2 +4.4 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -6.9 +0.7 +9.0 +1.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +3.3 +6.7 +1.8 +5.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +2.7 +6.4 +1.7 +5.3 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.1 +4.2 +7.1 +5.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.8 +25.4 +4.3 +18.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +18.2 +8.2 +5.4 +3.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +26.4 +11.3 -4.4 +6.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... +17.7 +4.9 +5.3 +3.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +29.3 -0.2 +7.2 -1.6 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.4 +3.3 +4.8 +4.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +8.5 +12.2 +15.1 +9.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -3.8 +7.4 +2.5 +5.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--NOVEMBER 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

 


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, a U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: December 13, 2007