CB-04-02FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Thursday, January 15, 2004
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2002 Annual Retail Trade Survey.
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The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $325.0 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month and up 6.7 percent (±1.0%) from December 2002. Total sales for the 12 months of 2003 were up 5.6 percent (±0.2%) from 2002. Total sales for the October through December 2003 period were up 6.9 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2003 percent change was revised from 0.9 percent (±1.0%) to 1.2 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±1.0%) from November and were 6.5 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 11.9 percent (±2.1%) from December 2002 and sales of electronics and appliance stores were up 10.8 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The scheduled release dates for 2004 are as follows: January 15, February 12, March 11, April 13, May 13, June 14, July 14, August 12, September 14, October 15, November 12, December 13.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Millions of dollars) 2003 2003 2003 2002 2002 NAICS Kind of Business Dec Nov Oct Code adv. prel. final Dec(r) Nov(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 325,036 323,541 319,705 304,659 301,469 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 246,282 245,997 244,393 230,712 230,126 Retail ....................................... 293,778 292,421 288,940 275,943 273,390 GAFO............................................. (*) 82,704 82,400 78,621 78,567 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 78,754 77,544 75,312 73,947 71,343 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,960 70,826 68,634 67,688 65,096 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,637 8,634 8,615 8,001 8,055 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,340 8,309 8,233 7,525 7,500 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 5,989 5,946 5,460 5,445 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,320 2,287 2,065 2,055 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,125 28,208 28,090 25,135 25,336 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 24,842 24,701 22,026 22,255 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 42,620 42,923 42,811 41,125 41,388 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 38,259 38,550 38,403 37,071 37,373 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,768 2,796 2,630 2,599 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 16,528 16,487 16,347 15,137 15,241 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,110 14,042 12,872 13,000 447 Gasoline stations................................ 22,135 22,231 21,786 21,129 20,826 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 15,274 15,266 15,116 14,512 14,355 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 855 851 822 818 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,074 3,015 2,941 2,853 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,889 1,879 1,803 1,797 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,833 6,778 6,786 6,792 6,919 452 General merchandise stores....................... 40,478 40,358 40,298 38,405 38,406 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,967 17,981 18,128 18,317 18,390 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 22,377 22,170 20,088 20,016 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 18,987 18,789 17,011 16,920 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,390 3,381 3,077 3,096 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 8,977 8,960 8,873 8,588 8,548 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 17,077 16,723 16,673 15,647 15,473 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 10,585 10,571 9,869 9,864 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 31,258 31,120 30,765 28,716 28,079 . (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2003
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 12 month total % Chg. 2003 2003 2003 2002 2002 NAICS Kind of Business 2003 from Dec Nov Oct Code 2002 adv. prel. final Dec Nov Retail & food services, total.................... 3,781,874 5.6 375,726 316,231 319,795 348,445 301,391 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,876,411 5.5 302,129 249,272 246,002 281,503 237,574 Retail ....................................... 3,423,067 5.5 344,562 286,294 288,599 319,815 274,014 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 91,397 79,756 123,179 87,844 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 905,463 6.2 73,597 66,959 73,793 66,942 63,817 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 826,941 6.3 67,211 60,698 66,781 61,190 57,870 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 51,964 56,618 53,540 49,872 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,261 7,012 5,752 5,947 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 100,242 5.5 10,416 9,342 8,744 9,481 8,909 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,919 4,623 4,678 4,835 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,423 4,121 4,803 4,074 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 95,474 6.0 13,649 9,104 7,713 12,144 8,310 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,786 5,417 9,429 6,267 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,318 2,296 2,715 2,043 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 322,407 7.1 24,876 25,684 29,842 21,814 23,771 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 23,277 26,924 19,669 21,476 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 508,632 3.6 46,769 42,920 42,912 44,693 41,917 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 457,864 3.4 40,555 38,550 38,557 38,999 37,784 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,823 2,816 3,682 2,747 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 191,606 6.3 18,941 15,745 16,510 17,120 14,875 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 13,546 14,225 14,584 12,753 447 Gasoline stations................................ 263,222 9.3 21,272 20,875 22,549 20,030 19,993 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 178,684 4.0 26,915 16,530 14,606 25,296 15,816 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 964 874 1,364 932 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,191 3,027 4,373 3,016 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,198 5,293 8,637 6,008 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,829 1,764 2,326 1,761 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 81,621 -0.5 12,498 7,571 6,080 12,232 7,901 452 General merchandise stores....................... 476,118 4.5 61,443 45,475 39,281 58,883 43,428 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 217,831 -3.6 31,210 21,085 17,541 31,854 21,598 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 21,406 17,817 32,359 21,944 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 24,390 21,740 27,029 21,830 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 20,620 18,376 22,352 18,375 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,770 3,364 4,677 3,455 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 105,256 0.7 11,645 8,656 9,005 10,944 8,567 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 194,342 7.5 22,541 17,433 17,564 20,236 16,710 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 11,188 11,057 13,471 10,821 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 358,807 7.2 31,164 29,937 31,196 28,630 27,377 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2003
Data adjusted for seasonal variatons, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Percent Change) Dec Nov 2003 2003 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2003 2002 2003 2002 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.5 +6.7 +1.2 +7.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.1 +6.7 +0.7 +6.9 Retail .................................. +0.5 +6.5 +1.2 +7.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +1.6 +6.5 +3.0 +8.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +1.6 +6.3 +3.2 +8.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 0.0 +7.9 +0.2 +7.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.4 +10.8 +0.9 +10.8 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.3 +11.9 +0.4 +11.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.7 +3.6 +0.3 +3.7 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.8 +3.2 +0.4 +3.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.2 +9.2 +0.9 +8.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.4 +4.8 +2.0 +6.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.1 +5.3 +1.0 +6.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.8 +0.6 -0.1 -2.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.3 +5.4 +0.1 +5.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -0.1 -1.9 -0.8 -2.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.2 +4.5 +1.0 +4.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +2.1 +9.1 +0.3 +8.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.4 +8.9 +1.2 +10.8 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Percent Change) Dec Nov 2003 2003 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2003 2002 2003 2002 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +18.8 +7.8 -1.1 +4.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +21.2 +7.3 +1.3 +4.9 Retail .................................. +20.4 +7.7 -0.8 +4.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +9.9 +9.9 -9.3 +4.9 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +10.7 +9.8 -9.1 +4.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.5 +9.9 +6.8 +4.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +49.9 +12.4 +18.0 +9.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -3.1 +14.0 -13.9 +8.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +9.0 +4.6 0.0 +2.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +5.2 +4.0 0.0 +2.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +20.3 +10.6 -4.6 +5.8 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.9 +6.2 -7.4 +4.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +62.8 +6.4 +13.2 +4.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +65.1 +2.2 +24.5 -4.2 452 General merchandise stores....................... +35.1 +4.3 +15.8 +4.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +48.0 -2.0 +20.2 -2.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +34.5 +6.4 -3.9 +1.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +29.3 +11.4 -0.7 +4.3 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +4.1 +8.9 -4.0 +9.4 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--DECEMBER 2003 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Source of Data: The Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey each month to provide an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. The Advance Monthly Retail Survey is a voluntary survey of a sub-sample of about 5,000 firms selected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Firms responding to this survey account for approximately 65% of the dollar volume estimate. Reliability of Estimates: The reliability of the estimates is a function of sampling and nonsampling errors. The margin of sampling error, as included on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Nonsampling error, on the other hand, can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling error. Additional survey information is available at www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
4th Quarter 2003 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
