FRIDAY, JANUARY 12, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
| Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the 2005 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release the week of March 26, 2007. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $369.9 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and up 5.4 percent (±0.7%) from December 2005. Total sales for the 12 months of 2006 were up 6.0 percent (±0.5%) from 2005. Total sales for the October through December 2006 period were up 4.9 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2006 percent change was revised from +1.0 percent (± 0.8%) to +0.6 percent (± 0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.7%)* from November and were 4.9 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Electronics and appliance stores were up 15.0 percent (±1.7%) from December 2005 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 10.2 percent (±1.7%) from last year.
The scheduled release dates for 2007 are as follows: January 12, February 14, March 13, April 16, May 11, June 13, July 13, August 13, September 14, October 12, November 14, December 13.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for January is scheduled to be released February 14, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2006
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Dec(3) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 369,865 366,633 364,538 351,025 350,460 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 292,642 289,620 287,492 276,486 276,890 Retail ....................................... 332,441 330,055 328,091 316,798 316,329 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 95,188 94,692 90,109 90,680 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,223 77,013 77,046 74,539 73,570 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,878 70,716 70,678 68,199 67,238 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,169 10,098 10,087 9,448 9,595 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,665 9,384 8,866 8,406 8,587 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,563 7,367 6,762 6,942 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,821 1,499 1,644 1,645 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,431 28,758 28,893 28,669 28,706 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,057 25,250 25,221 25,304 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 46,614 46,298 46,122 44,112 43,983 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 41,229 40,920 40,771 39,285 39,175 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,277 3,243 3,041 3,023 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,636 19,401 19,217 17,815 17,806 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,281 16,199 14,877 14,791 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,544 33,286 32,356 33,415 33,635 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,114 18,003 18,138 17,175 17,249 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,216 3,256 3,131 3,195 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,229 2,231 2,098 2,157 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,237 7,242 7,242 7,010 6,881 452 General merchandise stores....................... 47,040 46,625 46,474 44,645 44,954 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,708 17,669 17,660 17,801 18,026 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 28,956 28,814 26,844 26,928 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 25,482 25,343 23,449 23,558 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,474 3,471 3,395 3,370 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,832 10,093 10,066 9,372 9,503 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 23,936 23,854 23,584 22,192 21,860 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,893 15,754 14,295 14,211 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,424 36,578 36,447 34,227 34,131 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed. (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2006
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 12 month total % Chg. 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2006 from Dec(2) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code 2005 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 4,364,542 6.0 423,874 363,938 354,740 409,063 346,993 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 3,455,415 7.3 352,778 295,523 283,580 337,946 281,633 Retail ....................................... 3,935,699 5.8 385,477 329,408 318,366 373,878 314,773 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 104,350 90,031 140,327 98,987 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 909,127 1.6 71,096 68,415 71,160 71,117 65,360 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 833,420 1.4 65,208 62,301 64,741 65,062 59,237 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 51,159 52,740 54,689 48,798 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,114 6,419 6,055 6,123 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 120,201 8.0 12,172 10,976 9,895 11,583 10,506 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,469 5,066 5,518 5,341 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,507 4,829 6,065 5,165 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 107,500 7.0 15,704 10,400 7,958 13,806 9,528 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 8,508 6,498 11,522 7,844 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,892 1,460 2,284 1,684 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 355,002 8.6 24,409 27,688 29,840 25,499 27,583 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 24,631 26,689 22,951 24,899 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 544,581 4.9 51,650 46,415 44,971 49,303 43,776 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 482,797 4.1 44,074 40,961 39,874 42,388 38,940 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,372 3,120 4,351 3,083 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 224,341 7.7 21,874 18,955 18,871 20,149 17,396 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,972 16,069 16,662 14,480 447 Gasoline stations................................ 425,166 9.5 32,644 31,755 33,327 31,978 32,054 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 214,009 6.1 31,346 19,486 17,330 30,440 18,479 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 914 871 1,357 876 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,377 3,204 4,741 3,329 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,947 6,974 11,315 7,563 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,178 2,113 2,866 2,079 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 86,684 5.9 12,592 7,619 6,279 12,344 7,390 452 General merchandise stores....................... 553,191 5.2 69,807 51,853 44,687 66,982 49,509 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 212,799 -0.9 30,523 21,247 16,681 30,965 21,103 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 21,754 17,070 31,732 21,658 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 30,606 28,006 36,017 28,406 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 26,705 24,608 30,789 24,665 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,901 3,398 5,228 3,741 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 118,833 7.1 11,735 10,189 10,041 11,732 9,585 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 277,064 11.3 30,448 25,657 24,007 28,945 23,607 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 17,085 15,833 19,370 15,391 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 428,843 8.1 38,397 34,530 36,374 35,185 32,220 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate
(1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see <a href="http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html">http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html</a>
(2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.
(3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532).
(4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.
TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2006
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Dec Nov 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.9 +5.4 +0.6 +4.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.0 +5.8 +0.7 +4.6 Retail .................................. +0.7 +4.9 +0.6 +4.3 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.3 +3.6 0.0 +4.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.2 +3.9 +0.1 +5.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.7 +7.6 +0.1 +5.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +3.0 +15.0 +5.8 +9.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 +0.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.7 +5.7 +0.4 +5.3 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.8 +4.9 +0.4 +4.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.2 +10.2 +1.0 +9.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ +3.8 +3.4 +2.9 -1.0 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.6 +5.5 -0.7 +4.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.1 +3.2 0.0 +5.2 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +5.4 +0.3 +3.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.2 -0.5 +0.1 -2.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -2.6 +4.9 +0.3 +6.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.3 +7.9 +1.1 +9.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +2.3 +9.3 +0.4 +7.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Dec Nov 2006 2006 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2006 2005 2006 2005 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +16.5 +3.6 +2.6 +4.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +19.4 +4.4 +4.2 +4.9 Retail .................................. +17.0 +3.1 +3.5 +4.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +3.9 0.0 -3.9 +4.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +4.7 +0.2 -3.8 +5.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +10.9 +5.1 +10.9 +4.5 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +51.0 +13.7 +30.7 +9.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -11.8 -4.3 -7.2 +0.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +11.3 +4.8 +3.2 +6.0 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +7.6 +4.0 +2.7 +5.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +15.4 +8.6 +0.4 +9.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.8 +2.1 -4.7 -0.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +60.9 +3.0 +12.4 +5.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +65.3 +2.0 +21.3 +3.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +34.6 +4.2 +16.0 +4.7 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +43.7 -1.4 +27.4 +0.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +15.2 0.0 +1.5 +6.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +18.7 +5.2 +6.9 +8.7 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +11.2 +9.1 -5.1 +7.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--DECEMBER 2006 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
