Advance Monthly Retail Sales: Latest Release

FOR WIRE TRANSMISION 8:30 A.M. ET., Thursday, January 13, 2000 CB-00-08

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail sales for December adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $259.6 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (ą0.7%) from the previous month and up 9.7 percent (ą0.9%) from December 1998. Total sales for the 12 months of 1999 were $3.0 trillion, up 8.9 percent (ą0.3%) from the 1998 total. The October to November 1999 percent change was revised from +0.9 percent (ą0.7%) to +1.1 percent (ą0.2%).

Durable goods increased 1.1 percent (ą1.4%) from November and were 10.2 percent above last year. Automotive sales were up 10.9 percent from December a year ago, while building materials sales were up 8.2 percent from last year.

Nondurable goods increased 1.4 percent (ą0.6%) from November and were up 9.4 percent from December 1998. Gasoline sales were up 21.9 percent from December a year ago, while drug store sales were up 11.7 percent from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys.

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for January is scheduled to be released February 11, 2000 at 8:30 a.m.

This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.

TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--December 1999

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 1999 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business Dec Nov Oct code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 259,645 256,442 253,548 Total (excl. auto dealers). 194,674 192,050 190,767 Durable goods, total........ 109,368 108,229 105,870 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 15,798 15,768 15,188 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 12,111 11,720 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,288 1,270 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 64,971 64,392 62,781 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 61,700 61,022 59,591 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,370 3,190 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 14,020 13,834 13,920 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 6,511 6,561 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,244 6,306 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 150,277 148,213 147,678 53 General merchandise group stores.. 32,516 32,319 32,166 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 25,325 25,162 25,033 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 25,581 25,537 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,227 1,227 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 5,930 5,906 54 Food stores....................... 39,980 39,214 38,923 541 Grocery stores.................. 37,903 37,146 36,942 554 Gasoline service stations......... 16,367 15,974 15,823 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 11,225 11,158 11,265 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 950 942 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ (*) 2,954 2,978 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,719 1,744 58 Eating and drinking places........ 24,755 24,654 24,524 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 10,331 10,158 10,137 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,356 2,336 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 7,182 7,321 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 66,122 66,125 594 1998 1998 SIC Kind of business code Dec(r) Nov(r) Retail trade, total........... 236,609 234,462 Total (excl. auto dealers). 178,012 176,961 Durable goods, total........ 99,252 97,571 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,596 14,244 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 11,098 10,817 525 Hardware stores................. 1,271 1,237 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 58,597 57,501 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 55,430 54,382 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (NA) (NA) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 3,167 3,119 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 13,107 12,973 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 6,151 6,066 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 5,970 5,916 5722 Household appliance stores.... (NA) (NA) Nondurable goods, total..... 137,357 136,891 53 General merchandise group stores.. 30,152 30,204 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 23,744 23,680 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 24,248 24,166 533 Variety stores.................. 1,010 1,031 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 5,398 5,493 54 Food stores....................... 37,366 37,077 541 Grocery stores.................. 35,403 35,133 554 Gasoline service stations......... 13,422 13,351 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 10,723 10,756 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 900 918 562,3 Women's clothing, accessory stores........................ 2,938 2,892 565 Family clothing stores.......... (NA) (NA) 566 Shoe stores..................... 1,791 1,774 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,164 22,983 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 9,246 9,251 592 Liquor stores..................... 2,233 2,162 5961 Total mail order................... 6,294 6,308 53,56,57, GAF................................ 62,216 62,131 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--December 1999

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 1999 1999 1999 SIC Kind of business Dec Nov Oct code adv. prel. final Retail trade, total........... 310,502 257,653 250,825 Total (excl. auto dealers). 251,346 198,814 189,711 Durable goods, total........ 120,082 104,238 102,830 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 14,281 15,176 15,510 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) 11,857 12,201 525 Hardware stores................. (*) 1,270 1,280 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 59,156 58,839 61,114 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 56,085 55,530 57,803 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) 48,175 49,699 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) 3,309 3,311 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 19,965 15,091 13,399 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) 7,221 6,587 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) 6,769 5,839 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) 1,005 952 Nondurable goods, total..... 190,420 153,415 147,995 53 General merchandise group stores.. 54,060 36,814 31,341 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 43,280 28,911 24,257 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) 29,469 24,721 533 Variety stores.................. (*) 1,380 1,243 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) 6,523 5,841 54 Food stores....................... 43,855 38,618 38,880 541 Grocery stores.................. 41,163 36,589 36,905 554 Gasoline service stations......... 16,367 15,543 16,219 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 18,095 12,394 11,232 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) 1,075 961 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) 3,167 2,912 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) 5,320 4,549 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) 1,671 1,629 58 Eating and drinking places........ 24,829 23,446 25,162 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 12,583 9,955 9,884 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) 2,380 2,322 5961 Total mail order................... (*) 8,776 7,782 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) 74,158 63,772 594 1998 1998 SIC Kind of business code Dec Nov Retail trade, total........... 281,619 232,852 Total (excl. auto dealers). 228,459 181,899 Durable goods, total........ 108,445 91,559 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 13,347 13,171 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. 9,899 10,125 525 Hardware stores................. 1,337 1,200 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 53,160 50,953 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 50,164 47,965 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... 44,131 42,148 553 Auto and home supply stores..... 2,996 2,988 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 18,520 13,978 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. 7,516 6,618 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ 9,158 6,354 5722 Household appliance stores.... 1,082 922 Nondurable goods, total..... 173,174 141,293 53 General merchandise group stores.. 49,791 34,787 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 40,127 27,587 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) 40,890 28,143 533 Variety stores.................. 1,697 1,152 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... 7,967 6,048 54 Food stores....................... 40,655 36,396 541 Grocery stores.................. 38,129 34,501 554 Gasoline service stations......... 13,301 12,844 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 17,154 11,870 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... 1,574 1,048 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ 4,775 3,063 565 Family clothing stores.......... 7,281 5,068 566 Shoe stores..................... 2,328 1,708 58 Eating and drinking places........ 23,095 21,742 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 11,234 8,936 592 Liquor stores..................... 3,037 2,149 5961 Total mail order................... 9,101 7,551 53,56,57, GAF................................ 103,202 69,645 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 1C. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--December 1999

Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 12 month total Change SIC Kind of business 1999 from code 1998 Retail trade, total........... 2,991,684 8.9 Total (excl. auto dealers). 2,245,560 8.1 Durable goods, total........ 1,256,285 10.4 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. 182,679 10.5 521,3 Building mat. and supply stores. (*) (*) 525 Hardware stores................. (*) (*) 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ 746,124 11.6 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. 707,464 12.0 551 Motor vehicle (franchised).... (*) (*) 553 Auto and home supply stores..... (*) (*) 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. 163,649 7.6 571 Furniture and home furnishings.. (*) (*) 5722,31,4 Household appliance, radio, TV, and computer stores............ (*) (*) 5722 Household appliance stores.... (*) (*) Nondurable goods, total..... 1,735,399 7.9 53 General merchandise group stores.. 380,723 8.3 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased depts.) 297,488 7.5 531 Dept. stores (in. leased depts.) (*) (*) 533 Variety stores.................. (*) (*) 539 Misc. general mdse. stores...... (*) (*) 54 Food stores....................... 461,123 5.2 541 Grocery stores.................. 436,885 5.4 554 Gasoline service stations......... 179,369 10.7 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... 134,946 6.3 561 Men's and boys' clothing and furnishings stores......... (*) (*) 562,3 Women's clothing, accessary stores........................ (*) (*) 565 Family clothing stores.......... (*) (*) 566 Shoe stores..................... (*) (*) 58 Eating and drinking places........ 285,727 7.2 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... 118,806 11.3 592 Liquor stores..................... (*) (*) 5961 Total mail order................... (*) (*) 53,56,57, GAF................................ (*) (*) 594 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.

TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL SALES--December 1999

Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Dec Nov 1999 1999 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Nov Dec Oct Nov CODE 1999 1998 1999 1998 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +1.2 +9.7 +1.1 +9.4 Total (excl. auto dealers). +1.4 +9.4 +0.7 +8.5 Durable goods, total........ +1.1 +10.2 +2.2 +10.9 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. +0.2 +8.2 +3.8 +10.7 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +0.9 +10.9 +2.6 +12.0 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +1.1 +11.3 +2.4 +12.2 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +1.3 +7.0 -0.6 +6.6 Nondurable goods, total..... +1.4 +9.4 +0.4 +8.3 53 General merchandise group stores.. +0.6 +7.8 +0.5 +7.0 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +0.6 +6.7 +0.5 +6.3 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +0.2 +5.9 54 Food stores....................... +2.0 +7.0 +0.7 +5.8 541 Grocery stores.................. +2.0 +7.1 +0.6 +5.7 554 Gasoline service stations......... +2.5 +21.9 +1.0 +19.6 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +0.6 +4.7 -0.9 +3.7 58 Eating and drinking places........ +0.4 +6.9 +0.5 +7.3 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +1.7 +11.7 +0.2 +9.8 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Dec Nov 1999 1999 adv. prel. from-- from-- SIC Kind of business Nov Dec Oct Nov CODE 1999 1998 1999 1998 Prel. Final Final Final Retail trade, total........... +20.5 +10.3 +2.7 +10.7 Total (excl. auto group).. +26.4 +10.0 +4.8 +9.3 Durable goods, total........ +15.2 +10.7 +1.4 +13.8 52 Building mat., hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers.. -5.9 +7.0 -2.2 +15.2 55 ex. 554 Automotive dealers................ +0.5 +11.3 -3.7 +15.5 551,2,5, Motor vehicle and miscellaneous 6,7,9 automotive dealers............. +1.0 +11.8 -3.9 +15.8 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores................. +32.3 +7.8 +12.6 +8.0 Nondurable goods, total..... +24.1 +10.0 +3.7 +8.6 53 General merchandise group stores.. +46.8 +8.6 +17.5 +5.8 531 Dept. stores (ex. leased dept.). +49.7 +7.9 +19.2 +4.8 531 Dept. stores (in. leased dept.). (NA) (NA) +19.2 +4.7 54 Food stores....................... +13.6 +7.9 -0.7 +6.1 541 Grocery stores.................. +12.5 +8.0 -0.9 +6.1 554 Gasoline service stations......... +5.3 +23.1 -4.2 +21.0 56 Apparel and accessory stores...... +46.0 +5.5 +10.3 +4.4 58 Eating and drinking places........ +5.9 +7.5 -6.8 +7.8 591 Drug and proprietary stores....... +26.4 +12.0 +0.7 +11.4 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE:Advance Monthly Retail Sales--December 1999 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.

Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. They are based on two components. The first component is a measure of the average difference between the Advance and the Preliminary estimates. The second reflects the variability of the Preliminary estimate. Additionally, both the Advance and the full survey are subject to nonsampling errors. Such errors can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors, among others. Precautionary steps are taken to minimize these errors, but their magnitude is not directly measured.

Preliminary estimates for the current month and final estimates for the previous month based on the full sample are published next month in the Monthly Retail Trade Report. This report will provide sales estimates in greater detail and additional measures of sampling variability. It will also present a description of revisions and the techniques used in developing the estimates, and an explanation of confidence intervals and sampling variability (Appendix B, Reliability of Data).

(2) ---- These columns measure the difference between the Advance/Preliminary ratio and the Preliminary/Final ratio estimates -- i.e., the difference between estimates of trend for the same pair of data months. The revisions for Retail trade total are based on the latest 12 months of data.