Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing seasonal effects from a time series in order to better reveal certain non-seasonal features. An example of a seasonal effect is an increase in accounting services during the tax season. (Seasonal effects are defined more precisely below.)
Seasonal movements are often large enough that they mask other characteristics of the data that are of interest to analysts who track current economic trends. For example, if each quarter has a different seasonal tendency toward high or low values it can be difficult to detect the general direction of a time series' recent quarterly movement (increase, decrease, turning point, no change, consistency with another economic indicator, etc.). Seasonal adjustment produces data in which the values of neighboring quarters are usually easier to compare. Many data users prefer seasonally adjusted data because they want to see those characteristics that seasonal movements tend to mask, especially changes in the direction of the series.
Seasonal adjustment procedures remove quarterly time series estimate effects that occur in the same calendar quarter with similar magnitude and direction from year to year. Examples of these effects include economic activity tied to the tax season or to the travel season. The seasonal factors are estimates of average effects for each quarter. It is important to note that seasonal factors are based on present and past experience and that future data may show a different pattern of seasonal factors.
Every not seasonally adjusted series published in the Quarterly Services Report is tested for seasonality using X-13ARIMA-SEATS. Series which test positively for seasonality, i.e., show indications of seasonal behavior, are identified as potentially eligible for seasonal adjustment. Diagnostics used to determine which series to seasonally adjust can be found here.
We use X-13ARIMA-SEATS to derive our seasonal adjustment and produce seasonal factors. X-13ARIMA-SEATS is a seasonal adjustment program developed at the U.S. Census Bureau in collaboration with the Bank of Spain that provides both X-11 method seasonal adjustments and ARIMA model-based seasonal adjustments and diagnostics.
QSS estimates are adjusted using the X-11 filter-based adjustment procedure. QSS is currently using version 1.1, build 59 of X-13ARIMA-SEATS.
The revenue series for the following NAICS codes are seasonally adjusted:
Selected Services Total
22 Utilities
2211 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution
2212 Natural gas distribution
2213 Water, sewage and other systems
48-49 Transportation and warehousing
481 Air transportation
483 Water transportation
4831 Deep sea, coastal, and Great Lakes water transportation
484 Truck transportation
4841 General freight trucking
48412 General freight trucking, long-distance
4842 Specialized freight trucking
485 Transit and ground passenger transportation
486 Pipeline transportation
487 Scenic and sightseeing transportation
488 Support activities for transportation
492 Couriers and messengers
51 Information
511 Publishing industries (except Internet)
5111 Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers
51111 Newspaper publishers
51112 Periodical publishers
5111 pt Book, directory and mailing list, and other publishers
5112 Software publishers
512 Motion picture and sound recording industries
515 Broadcasting (except Internet)
5151 Radio and television broadcasting
5152 Cable and other subscription programming
5171 Wired telecommunications carriers
5172 Wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite)
518 Data processing, hosting, and related services
519 Other information services
522 Credit intermediation and related activities
5221 Depository credit intermediation
5223 Activities related to credit intermediation
53 Real estate and rental and leasing
531 Real estate
5311 Lessors of real estate
5312 Offices of real estate agents and brokers
5313 Activities related to real estate
532 Rental and leasing services
5321 Automotive equipment rental and leasing
53211 Passenger car rental and leasing
53212 Truck, utility trailer, and RV (recreational vehicle) rental and leasing
5324 Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing
533 Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets (except copyrighted works)
54 Professional, scientific, and technical services
5411 Legal services
5412 Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services
5413 Architectural, engineering, and related services
54133 Engineering services
5415 Computer systems design and related services
5416 Management, scientific, and technical consulting services
5417 Scientific research and development services
5418 Advertising, public relations, and related services
5419 Other professional, scientific, and technical services
56 Administrative and support and waste management and remediation
services
561 Administrative and support services
5613 Employment services
5615 Travel arrangement and reservation services
561 pt Other administrative and support services
562 Waste management and remediation services
61 Educational services
6116 Other schools and instruction
6117 Educational support services
62 Health care and social assistance
62 Health care and social assistance - tax-exempt
621 Ambulatory health care services
621 Ambulatory health care services - taxable
621 Ambulatory health care services - tax-exempt
6211 Offices of physicians - taxable
6212 Offices of dentists - taxable
6213 Offices of other health practitioners - taxable
6214 Outpatient care centers
6214 Outpatient care centers - taxable
6214 Outpatient care centers - tax-exempt
6215 Medical and diagnostic laboratories - taxable
6216 Home health care services
6216 Home health care services - taxable
6216 Home health care services - tax-exempt
622 Hospitals
622 Hospitals - taxable
622 Hospitals - tax-exempt
6221 General medical and surgical hospitals
6221 General medical and surgical hospitals - taxable
6221 General medical and surgical hospitals - tax-exempt
6222 Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals
6222 Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals - taxable
6222 Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals - tax-exempt
623 Nursing and residential care facilities
623 Nursing and residential care facilities - tax-exempt
624 Social assistance - taxable
624 Social assistance - tax-exempt
6241 Individual and family services
6242 Community food and housing, and emergency and other relief services
6244 Child day care services
6244 Child day care services - taxable
6244 Child day care services - tax-exempt
71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation
71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation - taxable
71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation - tax-exempt
711 Performing arts, spectator sports, and related industries
711 Performing arts, spectator sports, and related industries - taxable
7111 Performing arts companies
7111 Performing arts companies - taxable
7111 Performing arts companies - tax-exempt
7112 Spectator sports - taxable
7113 Promoters of performing arts, sports, and similar events
7113 Promoters of performing arts, sports, and similar events - taxable
7114 Agents and managers of artist, athletes, entertainers, and other public figures - taxable
7115 Independent artists, writers, and performers - taxable
712 Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions
712 Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions - tax-exempt
713 Amusement, gambling, and recreational industries
713 Amusement, gambling, and recreational industries - taxable
713 Amusement, gambling, and recreational industries - tax-exempt
7131 Amusement parks and arcades - taxable
7132 Gambling industries - taxable
7139 Other amusement and recreation industries
7139 Other amusement and recreation industries - taxable
7139 Other amusement and recreation industries - tax-exempt
721 Accommodation
7211 Traveler accommodation
7212 RV (recreational vehicle) parks and recreational camps
7213 Rooming and boarding houses
81 Other services (except public administration)
811 Repair and maintenance
8111 Automotive repair and maintenance
8114 Personal and household goods repair and maintenance
812 Personal and laundry services
8121 Personal care services
8123 Drycleaning and laundry services
8129 Other personal services
813 Religious, grantmaking, civic, professional, and similar organizations - tax-exempt
pt = industry part
Seasonally adjusted estimates are provided for all quarters for which there are unadjusted estimates available. Full time series are accessible here. The quarterly press release contains seasonally adjusted estimates for the most recent six quarters.
Yes. For the full report, we anticipate the introduction of seasonally adjusted estimates of expenses for selected industries within NAICS sectors 62, 71, and 81 effective with the March 2023 release for the fourth quarter of 2022.
Industries: