Census Working Papers

U.S. Census Bureau "Working Papers" have not undergone the review and editorial process generally accorded official Census Bureau publications. These working papers are intended to make results of Census Bureau research available to others and to encourage discussion on a variety of topics.

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Working Paper
Revisiting the Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-58
Employment effect of Ban the Box is significantly different in CPS vs. ACS. ACS results include zero; not due to survey frequency. ACS sample has more power.
Working Paper
Statistical Modeling of Reliability for Redistricting Plans
August 27, 2025
SSS2025-01
Statistical Modeling of Reliability for Redistricting Plans
Working Paper
A Simulated Reconstruction and Reidentification Attack on the 2010 U.S. Census
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-57
We perfectly reconstruct 2010 Census records for 97 million people, correctly inferring race and ethnicity for 3.4 million vulnerable population uniques.
Working Paper
Education and Mortality: Evidence for the Silent Generation from Linked Census and Administrative Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-56
Using full-count 1940 census and death records, we find that just a few mediators explain over half of the link between education and adult mortality.
Working Paper
Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-55
This paper documents new facts about the intergenerational transmission of housing wealth and its relationship with local housing supply.
Working Paper
Differences in Disability Insurance Allowance Rates
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-54
This paper combines American Community Survey data with SSA administrative records to analyze differences in disability allowance rates.
Working Paper
The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Childcare Establishments
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-53
Shifting from county- to establishment-level analysis reveals how minimum wage policies reshape the childcare landscape across regions and provider types.
Working Paper
LODES Design and Methodology Report: Methodology Version 7
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-52
This report documents features of the LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics data product, including data sources, methodology, and disclosure avoidance.
Working Paper
Developing a Child Care-Inclusive Poverty Measure
August 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-11
This paper defines parameters for a basic need for child care, followed by a demonstration of poverty thresholds and rates using price data to construct need.
Working Paper
Reconsidering the Medical Expense Deduction in the Supplemental Poverty Measure
August 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-12
This paper studies how capping the medical expense deduction in the Supplemental Poverty Measure impacts poverty rates.
Working Paper
Female Poverty and the Social Safety Net
August 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-10
This paper breaks down the effect of social safety net programs on poverty rates for women and female-headed households in the U.S. between 2019 and 2023.
Working Paper
Receipt of Public and Private Food Assistance Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Current Population Survey Data
August 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-51
There is variation across communities for using public and private food assistance based on level of rurality pre and post pandemic.
Working Paper
Locating Hispanic Americans, 1900-2020
July 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-50
The first study of Hispanic Americans' segregation in urban areas of the U.S. to cover the whole period 1900-2020.
Working Paper
Technifying Ventures
July 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-49
This paper analyzes the roles of advanced technology and venture capital in firm and aggregate outcomes.
Working Paper
Earnings Measurement Error, Nonresponse and Administrative Mismatch in the CPS
July 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-48
We link the CPS ASEC to SSA earnings to examine the relationship between item nonresponse and measurement error in earnings over time.
Working Paper
“Oh, Give Me a Home (Trade Share)”: Differential Import Price Inflation and Gains from Trade Across U.S. Households
July 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-47
We form “home trade shares” varying by age, race, marital status, education, and urban status to analyze U.S. inflation and gains from trade by demographic.
Working Paper
Trade Within Multinational Boundaries
July 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-46
Using novel data on U.S. multinationals’ customs transactions and production structure, we show that input-output linkages strongly predict intra-firm trade.
Working Paper
Credit Access in the United States
July 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-45
We find large differences in access to credit and repayment in the U.S. by race, class, and hometown, which are causally affected by childhood environments.
Working Paper
The Relationship Between the Population Experiencing Homelessness and Living in Shelters and Poverty
July 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-09
This paper addresses how the sheltered and household populations differ by poverty status.
Working Paper
Cognitive and Usability Testing Results of the 2023 Census Test Instrument in English and Spanish
July 07, 2025
Working Paper Number rsm2025-10
This report details findings from cognitive and usability testing of the online census questionnaire as part of the Small-Scale Response Testing program.
Working Paper
An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-44
We develop new measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' exports and imports.
Working Paper
Investments under Risk: Evidence from Hurricane Strikes
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-43
Firms with plants in areas subject to a hurricane reduce capital expenditures at these plans and shift capital expenditures to plants in non-affected areas.
Working Paper
The Rural/Urban Volunteering Divide
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-42
Rural residents volunteer more than urban ones, but the gap is shrinking; place-based factors like religiosity and nonprofit density shape this difference.
Working Paper
The Decline of Volunteering in the United States: Is it the Economy?
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-41
Volunteering in the U.S. declined post-recession, especially in rural, unequal, and economically disadvantaged areas, erasing prior rural advantages.
Working Paper
Finding Suburbia in the Census
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-40
This study describes a settlement typology that defines core, suburban, exurban, outlying and rural areas with constant statistical geography from 1940 to 2020.
Working Paper
Predictors of Medicaid Reporting Instability and Implications for Examining the Medicaid Unwinding
June 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-08
This study examines individual-level instability in Medicaid reporting at the monthly level using matched records in the 2023-2024 CPS ASEC.
Working Paper
Understanding Criminal Record Penalties in the Labor Market
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-39
This research studies the labor market consequences of a criminal record using linked Census and criminal justice administrative data.
Working Paper
Global Versus Decomposed Questions: How Does Decomposing a Global Utilities Expense Question Impact Data Quality and Respondent Burden?
June 18, 2025
Working Paper Number rsm2025-09
This study tests a global utilities expense question against two formats of a decomposed utility expense series to examine data quality and respondent burden.
Working Paper
Dynamics of High-Growth Young Firms and the Role of Venture Capitalists
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-38
The substantial growth and upfront investments of VC-backed firms are documented, and the role of VC is quantified at micro and macro levels.
Working Paper
The Inclusion of the Incarcerated Population in Income and Poverty Estimates in the ACS
June 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-07
This paper examines the effect of including data on the incarcerated population in income and poverty estimates.
Working Paper
Changes in Milestones of Adulthood
June 2025
Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2025-03
This research examines changes in young adults’ experiences reaching five milestones of adulthood between 2005 and 2023.
Working Paper
Private Equity and Workers: Modeling and Measuring Monopsony, Implicit Contracts, and Efficient Reallocation
June 2025
Working Paper Number CES-25-37
PE buyouts don't exploit monopsony or break contracts, but boost efficiency by reallocating high-wage workers and downsizing less productive plants.
Page Last Revised - January 3, 2024
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