Paper Spotlight

Paper Spotlight

Over the past three decades, researchers using restricted-access microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers (FSRDCs) have published more than 500 peer-reviewed journal articles. This section highlights selected high-impact publications based on FSRDC research, including the key restricted-use data assets used in the research and the broader scholarly contributions within each article’s discipline. 

Creative Destruction, Firm Dynamics, and Economic Growth

Philippe Aghion shared one-half of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Peter Howitt for pioneering theoretical and empirical work demonstrating that creative destruction is a key driver of sustained economic growth (see Box 1). 

Aghion and Howitt’s seminal 1992 paper linked firm-level behavior—including market entry and exit, research and development investment, and profit incentives—to economy-wide productivity growth. Their framework generated predictions that require longitudinal firm- and establishment-level data to test empirically. 

Researchers in the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies (CES), working with external research partners, developed such data assets for the United States. These data assets are securely available to qualified researchers through the FSRDC network. The resulting body of theoretical and empirical research has reshaped how economists understand productivity growth, competition, and technological change. 

Aghion coauthored several articles based on research conducted by his FSRDC research collaborators. This spotlight summarizes the data used in those studies and highlights key findings. 

Data That Changed the Conversation

For many years, testing the theory of creative destruction was limited by data constraints. Researchers needed longitudinal data capable of tracking firms over time to measure entry, exit, growth, and decline. 

Longitudinal Business Database (LBD)

In 2002, researchers in the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies developed the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD), later redesigned in 2021. The LBD links annual records from the Business Register into a continuous panel data asset covering payroll establishments back to 1976. 

Unlike cross-sectional snapshots, the LBD allows researchers to track establishments over time, including employment, payroll, industry classification, firm identifiers, and geographic location. Because establishments are linked to parent firms, researchers can study firm entry, exit, expansion, and contraction across decades, enabling direct measurement of creative destruction. 

Box 1. Creative Destruction, Sustained Economic Growth, and the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics

Joseph Schumpeter’s classic 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy introduced the concept of “creative destruction,” describing how new firms introducing innovative products or more efficient production processes replace older firms using outdated technologies. Schumpeter argued that these firm dynamics are central to long-term productivity growth and rising living standards.

Fifty years later, Aghion and Howitt developed a formal economic model linking creative destruction to sustained productivity growth following the Industrial Revolution.

Joel Mokyr, who received the other half of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, documented how cultural shifts encouraging innovation—combined with advances in science and technology—created a self-reinforcing cycle of innovation that enabled sustained economic growth for the first time in history.

Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS)

Using LBD data, CES developed the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) program, which publishes annual data on establishment entry and exit, firm startups and closures, and job creation and destruction across industries and geographic areas. BDS provides key evidence linking firm dynamics to productivity growth. 

Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS)

The Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS), first conducted in 2010, was designed to capture organizational and managerial practices that influence productivity but are difficult to measure using traditional business data. Administered as a supplement to the Annual Survey of Manufactures, MOPS collects information on performance monitoring, target setting, worker incentives, and technology adoption. 

When linked to production and export data, MOPS enables researchers to examine how management practices influence firm performance and innovation outcomes. 

FSRDC Research Contributions

Aghion coauthored three major journal articles based on research conducted by collaborators using FSRDC data. Together, these studies examine how institutional environments affect innovation incentives, how accounting for creative destruction improves productivity growth estimation, and how firm organization affects resilience during economic turbulence. 

Featured Research Projects

Aghion and coauthors developed an endogenous growth model examining how taxation and corruption jointly influence innovation and economic performance. Taxes can reduce entrepreneurial incentives by lowering profits but also fund essential public goods such as infrastructure, education, and rule-of-law institutions that support innovation. 

The model predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between taxation and economic growth. Moderate taxation supports growth by funding public goods, while excessive taxation discourages innovation. Corruption shifts this relationship downward by diverting public resources. 

Using Longitudinal Business Database data combined with measures of corruption derived from convictions of public officials, researchers found that taxation supports economic growth in low-corruption environments but has limited or negative effects in high-corruption environments. Calibration results suggest that eliminating corruption could produce welfare gains exceeding 20 percent in consumption-equivalent terms. 

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This study examines inflation measurement bias associated with establishment closures, known as outlet bias. When establishments exit markets, statistical agencies often estimate price changes using surviving establishments, which may underestimate productivity growth if new firms introduce higher-quality or lower-cost products. 

Using LBD data covering the entire private nonfarm sector from 1983 to 2013, researchers developed a model estimating growth lost due to this measurement limitation. The authors estimated that approximately 0.5 percentage points of annual productivity growth—more than one-fifth of measured productivity growth—is not captured in official statistics. 

The study by Aghion, et al., also found that missing growth is concentrated in industries such as retail trade, restaurants, and hotels. Comparisons with sector-specific research using detailed price and quantity data suggest the estimates may be conservative, reinforcing the importance of accounting for creative destruction when measuring productivity growth. 

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This study examines how organizational structure influences firm resilience during economic crises. Researchers compared centralized decision-making models with decentralized organizational structures that delegate authority to local plant managers. 

Using international management survey data and confidential Census manufacturing data from MOPS and other FSRDC data assets, researchers analyzed firm performance during the Great Recession of 2008–2009. Measures of economic turbulence included export declines, product churn, and stock market volatility. 

Results show that firms with more decentralized management structures prior to the recession performed better in industries experiencing greater economic turbulence. Decentralization allowed firms to leverage local information and adapt more effectively to changing market conditions. The study concludes that decentralized management structures can provide strategic advantages during periods of economic disruption, though optimal organizational structure varies by economic conditions. 

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References and Related Reading

Aghion, Philippe, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé, and William R. Kerr. 2016a. “Taxation, Corruption, and Growth.” European Economic Review 86: 24–51. 

Aghion, Philippe, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé, and William R. Kerr. 2016b. “This is the Impact of Corruption on Taxation and Growth.” World Economic Forum. 

Aghion, Philippe, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, and Huiyu Li. 2019. “Missing Growth from Creative Destruction.” American Economic Review 109: 2795–2822. 

Aghion, Philippe, Nick Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. 2021. “Turbulence, Firm Decentralization, and Growth in Bad Times.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13(1): 133–169. 

Aghion, Philippe and Peter Howitt. 1992. “A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction.” Econometrica 60: 323–351. 

Jarmin, Ron. 2026. “Revolutionizing Economic Measurement at the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies: Pioneering Research on Firm Dynamics, Employment Flows and Transformative Statistical Products.Deputy Director’s Blog. 

Klenow, Peter J. 2017. “Missing Growth from Creative Destruction.Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter. 

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. 2025. Scientific Background to the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. 

Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1942. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy

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Page Last Revised - February 26, 2026