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2023 National Population Projections Datasets

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2023 National Population Projections Datasets

Projections for the United States: 2023 to 2100

The 2023 National Population Projections for the United States are the first set of projections to incorporate the results of the 2020 Census. Prior series based on the 2010 Census were released in 2012, 2014 and 2017.

This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2022 as the base for projecting the US population from 2023 to 2100. The series uses the cohort-component method and historical trends in births, deaths, and international migration to project the future size and composition of the national population.

The 2023 National Population Projections include a main series and three alternative scenarios. The alternative scenarios are based on assumptions of low, high, and zero levels of immigration. All other methodology and assumptions, including fertility and mortality, are the same as those used in the main series. The three alternative scenarios are useful for analyzing potential outcomes of different levels of immigration.

Tables based on the 2023 series are available in the 2023 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series and 2023 National Populations Projections Tables: Alternative Scenarios sections. 

Methodology and Assumptions

Datasets

1. Projected Population by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2022 to 2100

2. Projected Births by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

3. Projected Deaths by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

4. Projected Net International Migration by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

5. Projected Population by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin and Nativity for the United States: 2022 to 2100

Inputs to the 2023 National Population Projections

Note: The inputs remained the same for all migration scenarios.

6. Projected Age-Specific Fertility Rates for Women Aged 14 to 54 Years by Nativity, Hispanic Origin, and Race for the United States: 2023 to 2100

7. Projected Mortality Rates by Nativity, Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

8. Projected Life Expectancy at Birth by Nativity, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

9. Projected Survival Ratios by Nativity, Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

10. Projected Total Fertility Rates by Nativity, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2023 to 2100

Page Last Revised - November 9, 2023
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