RUP is a fully developed demographic projection program for preparing cohort-component projections for population defined either in five- or single-year age groups one year at a time. The cohort component method projects each age and sex cohort over time based on the components of growth. Annual births create new cohorts, while existing cohorts are decreased by mortality and either increased or decreased by migration.
The RUP program has features that allow a considerable amount of flexibility for specifying fertility, mortality, and migration. As a result, RUP can be used to produce estimates for years where data on these components are available followed by projections into the future. RUP also includes a wealth of output options that allow a detailed examination of the results. These features are described below:
As the name implies, RUP was originally developed for simultaneous projection of two areas (rural and urban); however, the program’s limit to two subpopulations (e.g., populations defined by ethnicity or citizenship) have been updated. Separate RUP projections may be prepared for two or more subpopulations or areas (e.g., administrative regions) and combined to give a fully consistent projected population for a composite area or for a third population defined as the difference between a control projection and N-1 subpopulation projections. Thus, if two areas are projected, RUPAGG can calculate a third area as the sum of the two areas (e.g., total = region 1 + region 2) or as the difference (e.g., region 2 = total – region 1). This flexibility allows a demographer to create a projection model that accurately reflects what is known about the demographic situation in a country, making maximum use of available data. However, this flexibility requires the user (1) to decide on the best way to model the situation (since the program does not limit the options) and (2) to provide best estimates for all projection inputs for each subpopulation or area.
The RUPCombine program allows modeling of population changes due to catastrophic events (e.g., famine or civil conflict) when they are confined to one-half of a calendar year. Such demographic shocks result in relatively large numbers of deaths or migrants within a short period, and the program ensures the numbers are correctly allocated to the half year in which they occur.
The RUPEX Excel interface allows the user to select a RUP, RUPAGG, or RUPCombine input file from a user-defined subdirectory, edit the file, create a duplicate file, print the file, run the projection, and specify and generate output tables and charts for the projection’s base year and for any and all projection years. The graphics capability of the RUPEX interface provides diagnostic tools not previously available to RUP users, allows the user to more easily check the plausibility of assumptions, and to compare projection inputs and outputs dynamically over time.