Measuring Poverty Subannually in the United States: A Methodology Note

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Working Paper Number: SEHSD-WP-2023-18

Introduction

Rapid changes in the U.S. economy have made it increasingly important to be able to produce estimates of poverty on a timely and frequent basis. Despite the demand for current and frequent statistics, there is a lag between the reference period and annual publication of poverty statistics. This paper builds on existing studies combining the basic monthly Current Population Survey with the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to create a subannual measure of poverty with reference periods of 1, 3, and 4 months. I present subannual estimates of the Official Poverty Measure (OPM) and the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) for 2009-2022. I also examine various methodological issues around the design of a subannual poverty measure. I also present corroborating results from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the Household Pulse Survey (HPS). I suggest that a monthly poverty measure, to supplement annual statistics on poverty, may be appropriate for publication as a research series by the U.S. Census Bureau.

NOTE: SPM estimates in this publication are based on published BLS thresholds at the time of its release. On July 17, 2026, BLS re-released thresholds for 2019-2024 following the discovery of coding errors. The impact of the revised thresholds on SPM poverty rates is detailed in the following working paper: https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2026/demo/sehsd-wp2026-17.html

Page Last Revised - August 25, 2026