State Tax Liability and Post-Tax Income Estimates by State using the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Tax Model

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Working Paper Number: SEHSD-WP2026-19

State and federal tax policies have a substantial effect on the economic wellbeing of U.S. households. Taxes owed and tax credits received vary widely across states, both because of underlying variation in pretax income and because of differences in tax policies at the state level. However, tax liability is challenging to measure. The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), the source of official data on household income and poverty, does not ask directly about taxes. Therefore, the Census Bureau models federal and state income taxes with the CPS ASEC Tax Model. This paper presents new state-level estimates that explore the effect of state tax systems on U.S. households. We first benchmark the accuracy of the CPS ASEC Tax Model to state government data. Then, we present estimates of household-level tax liability and post-tax income by state. These results will be used to target improvements to the tax model.

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