Estimating Tip and Overtime Deductions Using the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Tax Model

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Working Paper Number: SEHSD-WP2026-20

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in 2025 made significant changes to federal personal income taxes, including new deductions for tip and overtime income. These deductions have the potential to impact post-tax income, and therefore disposable income, for some households. The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), the source of official data on household income and poverty, does not ask directly about taxes. Instead, the Census Bureau models federal, state, and select local income taxes and credits using the CPS ASEC Tax Model. This paper presents estimates of the number of filers receiving the tip and overtime deductions, average amount, and aggregate amount if the deductions had been in place in tax year 2024. We also compare estimates of federal tax liability and post-tax income before and after these deductions, with all other aspects of the tax calculation unchanged. Due to the assumptions necessary to model these deductions and the substantively small impact of the deductions, these new federal deductions are not included in the CPS ASEC tax model for tax year 2025.

Page Last Revised - September 2, 2026