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Center for Economic Studies (CES) Working Paper Series

This series features research in economics and other social sciences, by Census Bureau and FSRDC researchers, using restricted-use Census Bureau microdata.


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Driving the Gig Economy
We explore the effects of the introduction of online ridesharing platforms on entry, employment and earnings in the Taxi and Limousine Services industry.


Employer Dominance and Worker Earnings in Finance
This paper reveals a stronger positive employer size-pay relationship in finance than in other sectors due to firms' economic gains and in-demand worker skills.


Competition, Firm Innovation, and Growth under Imperfect Technology Spillovers
We study how firms use different innovations under imperfect technology spillovers and impact the effect of competition.


Household Wealth and Entrepreneurial Career Choices: Evidence from Climate Disasters
Flood shocks cut the likelihood of working for startups by 7%, leading to long-term income loss and highlighting the role of self-insurance for career risks.


Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility
New research shows the earnings gap between 27-year-old White adults born to low- and high-income parents widened while the low-income Black-White gap narrowed.


Expanding the Frontier of Economic Statistics Using Big Data: A Case Study of Regional Employment
Our study shows combined payroll and survey data can refine economic measures, improving state estimates and providing timely, accurate county-level statistics.


Contrasting the Local and National Demographic Incidence of Local Labor Demand Shocks
We examine how spatial frictions that differ among heterogeneous workers and firms shape the geographic and demographic incidence of local labor demand shocks.


Payroll Tax Incidence: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance
State unemployment insurance tax increases resulted in significant reductions in employment growth driven by lower hiring, but minimal pass-through to earnings.


The Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession
Using restricted-access data, I find that declines to parents’ home values during the Great Recession decreased children’s college attainment and earnings.


Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis
IT adoption by large business services firms can account for most of the increase in US regional wage inequality since 1980.


Measuring Income of the Aged in Household Surveys: Evidence from Linked Administrative Records
We examine how retirement income underreporting in the CPS ASEC and HRS affects key statistics such as reliance on Social Security benefits and poverty rates.


Citizenship Question Effects on Household Survey Response
Analysis of the 2019 Census Test linked to administrative data suggests that adding a citizenship question would increase noncitizen undercounts.


Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class
Why do people marry within their race and class? This study examines if residential segregation limits marriage across race and class lines in the US.


Whose Neighborhood Now? Gentrification and Community Life in Low-Income Urban Neighborhoods
I look at the social and political impact of gentrification within urban communities across the U.S. and find it is stratified across income and racial groups.


How Big is Small? The Economic Effects of Access to Small Business Subsidies
We study the small firm growth effects of SBA industry size standards that determine eligibility for small business subsidies.


Gradient Boosting to Address Statistical Problems Arising from Non-Linkage of U.S. Census Bureau Datasets
This article is a tutorial for using twangRDC to generate nonresponse weights to account for non-linkage of person records across U.S. Census Bureau datasets.


Revisiting Methods to Assign Responses when Race and Hispanic Origin Reporting are Discrepant Across Administrative Records and Third Party Sources
This paper discusses changes to the business rules for assigning ethnicity to the pre-decennial Best Race and Ethnicity administrative records composite file.


School Equalization in the Shadow of Jim Crow: Causes and Consequences of Resource Disparity in Mississippi circa 1940
Black schools in Mississippi remained underfunded following a finance equalization effort in 1920 at the expense of students’ long-term economic outcomes.


U.S. Worker Mobility Across Establishments within Firms: Scope, Prevalence, and Effects on Worker Earnings
This paper describes workers' opportunities to switch establishments within multi-establishment firms and assesses their impact on worker earnings growth.


Mobility, Opportunity, and Volatility Statistics (MOVS): Infrastructure Files and Public Use Data
We introduce the Mobility, Opportunity, and Volatility Statistics (MOVS) project, new public use data on income growth and household dynamics.


Does Rapid Transit and Light Rail Infrastructure Improve Labor Market Outcomes?
I analyze the effects of proximity to Los Angeles’s recent public transit expansions on local employment outcomes.


Interpreting Cohort Profiles of Lifecycle Earnings Volatility
We present new estimates of earnings volatility over time and the lifecycle for men and women by race and human capital using SSA earnings linked to CPS.


After the Storm: How Emergency Liquidity Helps Small Businesses Following Natural Disasters
We show that SBA disaster loans to firms reduce distress, increase growth, and crowd-in private credit, which seems to reflect resolving repair uncertainty.


The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery
We study how random variation in the availability of skilled, foreign-born workers—generated by the 2007 H-1B visa lottery—impacts firms and workers.


Where Are Your Parents? Exploring Potential Bias in Administrative Records on Children
This paper examines potential bias in the Census Household Composition Key's (CHCK) probabilistic parent-child linkages.


Grassroots Design Meets Grassroots Innovation: Rural Design Orientation and Firm Performance
Evidence of faster employment growth by firms applying a structured approach to design shows its the key role as an input to innovation.


Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey
We provide new evidence on recent and expected future use of AI by U.S. businesses based on timely data from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey.


Family Resources and Human Capital in Economic Downturns
This paper examines the impacts of the Great Recession on adolescents over the parent income gradient and finds that middle-class children were most at risk.


Examining Racial Identity Responses Among People with Middle Eastern and North African Ancestry in the American Community Survey
We examine unedited race responses for people of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) ancestry on the American Community Survey between 2005-2019.


Good Dispersion, Bad Dispersion
Productivity is more dispersed across plants within firms than across firms. Rather than misallocation, this may reflect optimal reallocation of internal funds.


Neighborhood Revitalization and Residential Sorting
The HOPE VI revitalization program reduced neighborhood poverty rates experienced by subsidized renters.


High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities
We introduce new public-use BDS statistics capturing the stock and flows of employment, firms, and establishments along the firm growth rate distribution.


The Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income
This paper examines whether a generous cash intervention early in life can "undo" some of the long-term disadvantage associated with poor health at birth.


Starting Up AI
We document the rise in AI-related business applications between 2004-2023 and analyze the performance of businesses originating from these applications.


Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps
How do NIH grant funding delays affect research personnel's careers? We find a 3pp increase in not working in the US, and 20% decreased long run earnings.


Accounting for Trade Patterns
We develop a quantitative framework for exactly decomposing trade patterns into economically meaningful components.

Page Last Revised - September 28, 2023
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