Center for Economic Studies (CES) Working Paper Series

This series features research in economics and other social sciences, by Census Bureau and FSRDC researchers, using restricted-use Census Bureau microdata.

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Working Paper

Impact Investing and Worker Outcomes

May 2025

Written by: JOSH LERNER, MARKUS LITHELL, AND GORDON M. PHILLIPS

Working Paper Number: CES-25-30

This research shows impact-backed firms hire more disadvantaged workers and favor them in wage increases compared to VC-backed firms.
Working Paper

The Rising Returns to R&D: Ideas Are Not Getting Harder to Find

May 2025

Written by: YOSHIKI ANDO, JAMES BESSEN, AND XIUPENG WANG

Working Paper Number: CES-25-29

Are “ideas harder to find?” R&D increases firm productivity MORE than in the 1970s, but rising obsolescence dampens gains to aggregate productivity.
Working Paper

Divorce, Family Arrangements, and Children’s Adult Outcomes

May 2025

Written by: ANDREW C. JOHNSTON, MAGGIE R. JONES, AND NOLAN G. POPE

Working Paper Number: CES-25-28

We use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how divorce affects family arrangements and children’s long-term outcomes.
Working Paper

The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

April 2025

Written by: KRISTINA MCELHERAN, MU-JEUNG YANG, ZACHARY KROFF, AND ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON

Working Paper Number: CES-25-27

Early AI adoption in U.S. manufacturing produced a J-curve pattern of short term productivity loss followed by medium term growth – though quite unevenly.
Working Paper

Startup Dynamics: Transitioning from Nonemployer Firms to Employer Firms, Survival, and Job Creation

April 2025

Written by: ALICIA ROBB AND ADJI FATOU DIAGNE

Working Paper Number: CES-25-26

We track a cohort of startups for a seven year period to study transition from employer to nonemployer status, firm survival, and job creation.
Working Paper

The Impact of Childcare Costs on Mothers’ Labor Force Participation

April 2025

Written by: VALESKA ARAUJO, LINDEN MCBRIDE, AND DANIELLE H. SANDLER

Working Paper Number: CES-25-25

Childcare costs shape moms’ work decisions. Using national data, this study finds rising costs reduce labor force participation, especially for low-income moms.
Working Paper

Place Based Economic Development and Tribal Casinos

April 2025

Written by: RANDALL AKEE, MAGGIE R. JONES, AND EMILIA SIMEONOVA

Working Paper Number: CES-25-24

We review existing research on the effect of American Indian casinos on measures of local economic development and examine reservation employment dynamics.
Working Paper

Re-assessing the Spatial Mismatch Hypothesis

April 2025

Written by: DAVID CARD, JESSE ROTHSTEIN, AND MOISES YI

Working Paper Number: CES-25-23

Using LEHD data, we show that Black workers live closer to good jobs than whites, suggesting spatial mismatch plays a limited role in racial wage gaps today.
Working Paper

Size Matters: Matching Externalities and the Advantages of Large Labor Markets

April 2025

Written by: ENRICO MORETTI AND MOISES YI

Working Paper Number: CES-25-22

Using LEHD data, we show that larger labor markets help displaced workers recover faster, relocate less, and find better, longer-lasting job matches.
Working Paper

Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

April 2025

Written by: TERESA C. FORT, NATHAN GOLDSCHLAG, JACK LIANG, PETER K. SCHOTT, AND NIKOLAS ZOLAS

Working Paper Number: CES-25-21

We build a panel tracking firms' patenting to separately investigate the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth.
Working Paper

The Composition of Firm Workforces from 2006–2022: Findings from the Business Dynamics Statistics of Human Capital Experimental Product

April 2025

Written by: MARTHA STINSON AND SEAN WANG

Working Paper Number: CES-25-20

We introduce a new Census Bureau experimental product that provides statistics on the workforce composition of firms and its relationship to business dynamics.
Working Paper

Geographic Immobility in the United States

March 2025

Written by: MARK ELLIS, LEE FIORIO, AND THOMAS B. FOSTER

Working Paper Number: CES-25-19

We use linked IRS and SSA data to study those in a cohort aged between 15 and 50 in 2001 who never migrated between states from 2001 to 2016.
Working Paper

Work Organization and Cumulative Advantage

March 2025

Written by: DYLAN NELSON, NATHAN WILMERS, AND LETIAN ZHANG

Working Paper Number: CES-25-18

Job upgrading can raise pay for frontline workers, especially through on-the-job learning and greater task discretion.
Working Paper

Peer Income Exposure Across the Income Distribution

February 2025

Written by: MICHELLE SPIEGEL, LEAH CLARK, THURSTON DOMINA, EMILY PENNER, PAUL HANSELMAN, PAUL Y. YOO, AND ANDREW PENNER

Working Paper Number: CES-25-16

High-income students are relatively isolated from their lower-income peers, while low- and middle-income students have fairly even peer income distributions.
Working Paper

The Intangible Divide: Why Do So Few Firms Invest in Innovation?

February 2025

Written by: JAMES BESSEN AND XIUPENG WANG

Working Paper Number: CES-25-15

R&D and software investment are dominated by a few hundred firms; most firms invest nothing. Why? One factor: rivals’ technology reduces innovation incentives.
Working Paper

Corporate Share Repurchase Policies and Labor Share

February 2025

Written by: XUDONG FU, DARREN KISGEN, AND LEI KONG

Working Paper Number: CES-25-14

This paper finds no link between increased share repurchases and declining labor share, casting doubts on the current policies on buyback.
Working Paper

The Design of Sampling Strata for the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey

February 2025

Written by: JONATHAN EGGLESTON, LINDEN MCBRIDE, AND MARK KLEE

Working Paper Number: CES-25-13

We produce a stratified sampling frame for the FoodAPS survey by applying Random Forest classifiers to administrative and survey data.
Working Paper

Leveraged Payouts: How Using New Debt to Pay Returns in Private Equity Affects Firms, Employees, Creditors, and Investors

February 2025

Written by: ABHISHEK BHARDWAJ, ABHINAV GUPTA, AND SABRINA T. HOWELL

Working Paper Number: CES-25-12

We show how a large increase in leverage affects bankruptcy risk and real outcomes, focusing on the setting of dividend recaps in private equity.
Working Paper

Geographic Disparities in Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementia Mortality in the US: Comparing Impacts of Place of Birth and Place of Residence

February 2025

Written by: JASON FLETCHER, KATIE JAJTNER, AND JINHO KIM

Working Paper Number: CES-25-11

NLMS data shows that late life state of residence contributes more than state of birth in determining variation in Alzheimer’s Disease mortality in the US.
Working Paper

Applying Current Core Based Statistical Area Standards to Historical Census Data, 1940-2020

January 2025

Written by: TODD GARDNER

Working Paper Number: CES-25-10

This study applies the current rules for defining Core Based Statiscial Areas to historical population, commuting and geographic data from 1940 to 2020.
Working Paper

Workers’ Job Prospects and Young Firm Dynamics

January 2025

Written by: SEULA KIM

Working Paper Number: CES-25-09

This paper investigates how worker beliefs and job prospects impact the wages and growth of young firms, as well as the aggregate economy.
Working Paper

Business Dynamics Statistics of Coastal Counties: A Description of Differences in Coastal Areas Over Time

January 2025

Written by: MELISSA CHOW AND MARTHA STINSON

Working Paper Number: CES-25-08

This paper describes the Business Dynamics Statistics of Coastal Counties, which shows patterns in business growth and decline in coastal watershed areas.
Working Paper

U.S. Banks’ Artificial Intelligence and Small Business Lending: Evidence from the Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey

January 2025

Written by: JEFFERY PIAO, K. PHILIP WANG, AND DIANA L. WENG

Working Paper Number: CES-25-07

AI helps banks reduce information asymmetry with borrowers, enabling the banks to extend credit over greater distances.
Working Paper

The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction

January 2025

Written by: RYAN HANSON AND ANA MARÍA HERRERA

Working Paper Number: CES-25-06

We use quarterly data from the ASM and CMF to investigate the effect of oil news shocks on U.S. manufacturing job creation and destruction.
Working Paper

Measuring the Business Dynamics of Firms that Received Pandemic Relief Funding: Findings from a New Experimental BDS Data Product

January 2025

Written by: RICHARD BEEM AND MARTHA STINSON

Working Paper Number: CES-25-05

This paper describes a new experimental data product: the Business Dynamics Statistics of firms that received SBA pandemic funding, such as PPP loans.
Working Paper

Investigating the Effect of Innovation Activities of Firms on Innovation Performance: Does Firm Size Matter?

January 2025

Written by: MAHOUR PARAST, ADEGOKE OKE, AND MATTHEW DOOLIN

Working Paper Number: CES-25-04

This research examines whether a firm's innovation activities result in product and process innovations, and how results vary by firm size.
Working Paper

Potential Bias When Using Administrative Data to Measure the Family Income of School-Aged Children

January 2025

Written by: LEAH R. CLARK AND RENUKA BHASKAR

Working Paper Number: CES-25-03

Even high-quality administrative data sources can result in biased measures of income, but using multiple complementary sources can help.
Working Paper

A Granular Look into Firms’ Cash Portfolios

January 2025

Written by: YOUNGSUK YOOK

Working Paper Number: CES-25-02

This study uses firm-level QFR data to document the composition of firms’ liquid asset holdings and its link to firm characteristics and market conditions.
Working Paper

Food Security Status Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

January 2025

Written by: PATRICK J. BRADY, MELISSA N. LASKA, RACHEL WIDOME, AND SRUTHI VALLURI

Working Paper Number: CES-25-01

Food security prevalence estimated by rural-urban status pre and post pandemic varied in rural communities; an urban/rural dichotomy may mask areas of need.

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Page Last Revised - May 16, 2025

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