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Resource Library
Center for Economic Studies (CES) Working Paper Series
Center for Economic Studies (CES) Working Paper Series
This series features research in economics and other social sciences, by Census Bureau and FSRDC researchers, using restricted-use Census Bureau microdata.
2025
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Working PaperDivorce, Family Arrangements, and Children’s Adult OutcomesWe use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how divorce affects family arrangements and children’s long-term outcomes.
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Working PaperThe Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)Early AI adoption in U.S. manufacturing produced a J-curve pattern of short term productivity loss followed by medium term growth – though quite unevenly.
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Working PaperStartup Dynamics: Transitioning from Nonemployer Firms to Employer Firms, Survival, and Job CreationWe track a cohort of startups for a seven year period to study transition from employer to nonemployer status, firm survival, and job creation.
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Working PaperThe Impact of Childcare Costs on Mothers’ Labor Force ParticipationChildcare costs shape moms’ work decisions. Using national data, this study finds rising costs reduce labor force participation, especially for low-income moms.
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Working PaperPlace Based Economic Development and Tribal CasinosWe review existing research on the effect of American Indian casinos on measures of local economic development and examine reservation employment dynamics.
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Working PaperRe-assessing the Spatial Mismatch HypothesisUsing LEHD data, we show that Black workers live closer to good jobs than whites, suggesting spatial mismatch plays a limited role in racial wage gaps today.
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Working PaperSize Matters: Matching Externalities and the Advantages of Large Labor MarketsUsing LEHD data, we show that larger labor markets help displaced workers recover faster, relocate less, and find better, longer-lasting job matches.
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Working PaperGrowth is Getting Harder to Find, Not IdeasWe build a panel tracking firms' patenting to separately investigate the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth.
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Working PaperThe Composition of Firm Workforces from 2006–2022: Findings from the Business Dynamics Statistics of Human Capital Experimental ProductWe introduce a new Census Bureau experimental product that provides statistics on the workforce composition of firms and its relationship to business dynamics.
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Working PaperGeographic Immobility in the United StatesWe use linked IRS and SSA data to study those in a cohort aged between 15 and 50 in 2001 who never migrated between states from 2001 to 2016.
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Working PaperWork Organization and Cumulative AdvantageJob upgrading can raise pay for frontline workers, especially through on-the-job learning and greater task discretion.
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Working PaperPeer Income Exposure Across the Income DistributionHigh-income students are relatively isolated from their lower-income peers, while low- and middle-income students have fairly even peer income distributions.
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Working PaperThe Intangible Divide: Why Do So Few Firms Invest in Innovation?R&D and software investment are dominated by a few hundred firms; most firms invest nothing. Why? One factor: rivals’ technology reduces innovation incentives.
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Working PaperCorporate Share Repurchase Policies and Labor ShareThis paper finds no link between increased share repurchases and declining labor share, casting doubts on the current policies on buyback.
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Working PaperThe Design of Sampling Strata for the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase SurveyWe produce a stratified sampling frame for the FoodAPS survey by applying Random Forest classifiers to administrative and survey data.
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Working PaperLeveraged Payouts: How Using New Debt to Pay Returns in Private Equity Affects Firms, Employees, Creditors, and InvestorsWe show how a large increase in leverage affects bankruptcy risk and real outcomes, focusing on the setting of dividend recaps in private equity.
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Working PaperGeographic Disparities in Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementia Mortality in the US: Comparing Impacts of Place of Birth and Place of ResidenceNLMS data shows that late life state of residence contributes more than state of birth in determining variation in Alzheimer’s Disease mortality in the US.
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Working PaperApplying Current Core Based Statistical Area Standards to Historical Census Data, 1940-2020This study applies the current rules for defining Core Based Statiscial Areas to historical population, commuting and geographic data from 1940 to 2020.
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Working PaperWorkers’ Job Prospects and Young Firm DynamicsThis paper investigates how worker beliefs and job prospects impact the wages and growth of young firms, as well as the aggregate economy.
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Working PaperBusiness Dynamics Statistics of Coastal Counties: A Description of Differences in Coastal Areas Over TimeThis paper describes the Business Dynamics Statistics of Coastal Counties, which shows patterns in business growth and decline in coastal watershed areas.
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Working PaperU.S. Banks’ Artificial Intelligence and Small Business Lending: Evidence from the Census Bureau’s Annual Business SurveyAI helps banks reduce information asymmetry with borrowers, enabling the banks to extend credit over greater distances.
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Working PaperThe Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and DestructionWe use quarterly data from the ASM and CMF to investigate the effect of oil news shocks on U.S. manufacturing job creation and destruction.
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Working PaperMeasuring the Business Dynamics of Firms that Received Pandemic Relief Funding: Findings from a New Experimental BDS Data ProductThis paper describes a new experimental data product: the Business Dynamics Statistics of firms that received SBA pandemic funding, such as PPP loans.
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Working PaperInvestigating the Effect of Innovation Activities of Firms on Innovation Performance: Does Firm Size Matter?This research examines whether a firm's innovation activities result in product and process innovations, and how results vary by firm size.
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Working PaperPotential Bias When Using Administrative Data to Measure the Family Income of School-Aged ChildrenEven high-quality administrative data sources can result in biased measures of income, but using multiple complementary sources can help.
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Working PaperA Granular Look into Firms’ Cash PortfoliosThis study uses firm-level QFR data to document the composition of firms’ liquid asset holdings and its link to firm characteristics and market conditions.
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Working PaperFood Security Status Across the Rural-Urban Continuum Before and During the COVID-19 PandemicFood security prevalence estimated by rural-urban status pre and post pandemic varied in rural communities; an urban/rural dichotomy may mask areas of need.
Page Last Revised - May 16, 2025
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