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Center for Economic Studies (CES) Working Paper Series

This series features research in economics and other social sciences, by Census Bureau and FSRDC researchers, using restricted-use Census Bureau microdata.

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Working Paper
AI Adoption in America: Who, What, and Where
We study the early adoption and diffusion of AI-related technologies as documented in the 2018 Annual Business Survey of 850,000 firms across the United States.

Working Paper
How Do Health Insurance Costs Affect Firm Labor Composition and Technology Investment?
This paper examines the causal effect of health insurance premiums on firms’ employment in terms of quantity/composition and technology investment decisions.

Working Paper
Coverage of Children in the American Community Survey Based on California Birth Records
This paper uses California as a case study to examine differences between reported versus unreported children in the ACS based on state birth records.

Working Paper
Patents, Innovation, and Market Entry
We use NLP and novel Census data to ask how limits to software patentability shape innovation, job creation, and market entry.

Working Paper
When and Why Does Nonresponse Occur? Comparing the Determinants of Initial Unit Nonresponse and Panel Attrition
This paper uses the SIPP and linked administrative data to compare the determinants of baseline unit nonresponse with that of panel attrition.

Working Paper
Mixed-Effects Methods for Search and Matching Research
We compare the performance of mixed-effects methods containing person and firm effects with recent enhancements to the more traditional fixed-effects methods.

Working Paper
Noncitizen Coverage and Its Effects on U.S. Population Statistics
Administrative records cover more noncitizens than surveys, affecting socioeconomic characteristic estimates.

Working Paper
Labor Market Segmentation and the Distribution of Income: New Evidence from Internal Census Bureau Data
We present new findings validating earlier literature on segmentation in the earnings distribution based on internal CPS ASEC data using a novel mixture model.

Working Paper
Industry Wage Differentials: A Firm-Based Approach
We provide new LEHD-based measures of industry wage differentials, and show our approach overcome biases present in methods commonly used in the literature.

Working Paper
Research and/or Development? Financial Frictions and Innovation Investment
We use Census data to study how US firms adjust their innovation investments in response to an external increase in funding cost.

Working Paper
The Changing Firm and Country Boundaries of US Manufacturers in Global Value Chains
This paper uses two novel data sources to document how US firms organize goods production across firm and country boundaries.

Working Paper
Eviction and Poverty in American Cities
This paper uses linked administrative data to study the causal impacts of eviction on earnings, homelessness, and financial health in Chicago and New York.

Working Paper
Access to Financing and Racial Pay Gap Inside Firms
Utilizing exogenous shocks to firms’ debt capacity, we find that better access to debt financing narrows the earnings gap between minority and white workers.

Working Paper
Unionization, Employer Opposition, and Establishment Closure
We document that private-sector unionization negatively affects establishment employment and survival and provide new reasons for these effects.

Working Paper
The Local Origins of Business Formation
Using business applications, we analyze the spatial disparity in the creation of business ideas and the formation of new employer startups from these ideas.

Working Paper
Technology Lock-In and Costs of Delayed Climate Policy
Technology lock-in implies that increasing entry-year energy prices by 10% decreases plants’ energy intensity of production by 3% throughout their lifetime.

Working Paper
Virtual Charter Students Have Worse Labor Market Outcomes as Young Adults
Despite growing demand for virtual charter schools, analysis using linked education and earnings records suggest long-term negative consequences for students.

Working Paper
The Gender Pay Gap and its Determinants across the Human Capital Distribution
This study links American Community Survey data and postsecondary transcript records to examine how the gender pay varies across education levels.

Working Paper
Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts
Accurate weather forecasts save thousands of lives. Accounting for benefits and costs, forecasts create billions of dollars of value for Americans every year.

Working Paper
The Spillover Effects of Top Income Inequality
We demonstrate how increases in income inequality originating within a few occupations can “spill over” through consumption into others.

Working Paper
Shift or replenishment? Reassessing the prospect of stable Spanish bilingualism across contexts of ethnic change
This paper uses multilevel models to test for geographic contextual effects on the prevalence of Spanish bilingualism among native born Latinos in the SIPP.

Working Paper
Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Stringent? Evidence from U.S. Offset Markets
This paper asks whether US air pollution regulation is too stringent by comparing the marginal costs of pollution reductions to their marginal social benefits.

Working Paper
Quality Adjustment at Scale: Hedonic vs. Exact Demand-Based Price Indices
This paper explores alternative methods for adjusting price indices for quality change at scale.

Working Paper
Same-Sex Couples and the Child Earnings Penalty
We expand the existing literature on the child penalty in earnings for opposite-sex couples to understand the earnings patterns in same-sex couples.

Working Paper
The Demographics of the Recipients of the First Economic Impact Payment
We present statistics on the demographics of individuals and households who were beneficiaries of Economic Impact Programs (EIPs) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Working Paper
Poach or Promote? Job Sorting and Gender Earnings Inequality across U.S. Industries
Does the gender wage gap in an industry depend on whether firms tend to promote internally or are more likely to poach talent from competitors?

Working Paper
More than Chance: The Local Labor Market Effects of Tribal Gaming
Does tribal gaming generate economic benefits? This paper examines the local labor market effects of an important industry for many American Indian tribes.

Working Paper
Estimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report
This report produces U.S. citizenship estimates by using administrative records to fill in data for nonresponding American Community Survey housing units.

Working Paper
Building the Prototype Census Environmental Impacts Frame
This paper introduces a new data infrastructure for studying the relationship between people, businesses and the environment.

Working Paper
Self-Employment Income Reporting on Surveys
This paper examines how survey responses to questions about self-employment income differ from administrative records income data.

Working Paper
Federal-Local Partnerships on Immigration Law Enforcement: Are the Policies Effective in Reducing Violent Victimization?
Victim reports from the NCVS show that the activation of Secure Communities and 287(g) task force agreements increased violent victimization risk among Latinos.

Working Paper
Where Have All the "Creative Talents" Gone? Employment Dynamics of U.S. Inventors
We study how the allocation of inventors in the U.S. economy affects innovative capacity.

Working Paper
On The Role of Trademarks: From Micro Evidence to Macro Outcomes
This paper studies the effects of trademarks, starting from micro evidence from firms and building up towards the macro implications in general equilibrium.

Working Paper
Building the Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity (IDEA)
This paper describes the construction of the Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity (IDEA).

Working Paper
The Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Robot Hubs in U.S. Manufacturing Establishments
We use ASM data to study investments in robots. Some locations, which we call Robot Hubs, have many more robots than expected after accounting for industry mix.

Working Paper
Who’s Most Exposed to International Shocks? Estimating Differences in Import Price Sensitivity across U.S. Demographic Groups
U.S. import price indexes that differ by age, race, sex, and education status show dollar movements produced very different inflation rates for these groups.

Page Last Revised - September 28, 2023
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