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Today we’re making the first in a series of major announcements about preparations for the 2030 Census.

In my role directing the Decennial Census Programs, I’m excited to be able to share key updates about our research projects, testing strategy and timeline.  

Research underpins everything the Census Bureau does as the nation’s leading provider of quality data about its people, places and economy. We start with the central question: How can we do this even better? Many of our research ideas and projects flow from that premise.

We currently have dozens of research projects underway to enhance the design and operation of the 2030 Census. You can read more about these projects in a new interactive tool we launched today, the 2030 Census Research Project Explorer. The tool reflects the current list of projects and will be expanded as new projects are added to our research agenda.  

Another major announcement we’re making today is about our testing strategy for the 2030 Census. Testing is as central to what we do as research is – and allows us to experiment with new technologies and methodologies. It serves as a valuable tool to ensure that we’re on the right track. Testing also helps us adjust and fine-tune our approach so we can achieve our ultimate mission – conducting a complete count of the nation of the highest possible quality. We have designed a testing strategy that is optimal for the 2030 Census.

 The testing strategy has two main components:

• Ongoing small-scale testing (from now through 2029).
• Two major field tests (in 2026 and 2028).

When we begin our planning for the next decennial census, it’s important to know that we start with what worked well for the previous census and what can be improved.

While no census is perfect, the 2020 Census was the most modern and innovative decennial census in our nation’s history. For 2020, the Census Bureau:

• Introduced unprecedented automation:
  • Offering the capability to fill out the 2020 Census questionnaire online in a secure virtual setting, meeting the highest standards for protecting your information.
  • Providing field representatives mobile devices to receive assignments, plan their routes, and enter responses during in-person interviews.
• Leveraged satellite imagery and partner data to conduct the majority of address canvassing from the office, greatly reducing the need to deploy thousands of temporary listers to neighborhoods across the country.
• Used high-quality administrative records to enumerate households when self-response and one field visit did not result in a completed census response.

Many of these major innovations were long planned by the Census Bureau in the years leading up to 2020. And other operational changes and technologies were quickly implemented to meet the challenge of conducting a complete national head count during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Census Bureau is continuing to build upon its successful innovations from 2020 and testing new ideas and methods for 2030. 

Small Scale Testing

As we prepared for 2020, we knew we wanted to use small-scale testing as we had in the lead-up to previous decennial censuses. But this time, we are expanding their use. Small-scale testing has many advantages, including:

• Swift, well-defined results.
• The ability to leverage approaches such as the expanded use of administrative records that don’t require major field tests.
• A way to test methodologies and systems to determine if they require more extensive field testing. This lets us refine and enhance operations and technologies used successfully during the 2020 Census and introduce innovations to see if they’re appropriate to use in the 2030 Census.

Some types of small-scale tests we’re currently conducting:

• Self-response tests may include internet, paper and telephone response options. The first small-scale test of this decade, the 2023 Census Test, gathered insight into how people engage with the online census questionnaire and the invitation materials they receive in the mail. Further tests are planned to explore ways to assist responders (and increase self-response to the census) such as improving methods used to collect household rosters and once again allowing householders to respond without a Census ID as we did in 2020. 
• Field tests look at specific enhancements for field operations (e.g., new in-field enumeration procedures).
• ·Cognitive tests to pretest how subjects answer and perceive questions and how they interact with self-response instruments.

We plan to continue small-scale testing throughout the decade and use our findings to inform, enhance and refine 2030 Census operations.  

Our small-scale testing will feed into two major field tests planned for 2026 and 2028.

During the 2026 test, with a Census Day of April 1, 2026, we’ll try out new and innovative systems and methods to ensure feasibility and a cohesive census design, while collecting data for future response and cost models for census operations. We do not expect this to be a full end-to-end test. 

The 2028 test or “dress rehearsal,” with a Census Day of April 1, 2028 (similar in scope to our 2018 end-to-end test) will serve as a dry run of operations and the handoffs between them. This test will be the last chance to fine-tune processes and systems and ensure readiness for the 2030 Census.

We will determine the details (scope of operations, strategy for sites and key milestones) of the major field tests throughout the decade.  

Our research projects, testing strategy and more are outlined in an updated timeline of the lead-up to 2030 released today. It shows the four phases of our process and what will happen in each. We are currently in phase 2 – Design Selection – which runs through 2024. 

Last year, thousands of you responded to a Federal Register Notice inviting the public’s ideas on ways to improve the next census. We are grateful that so many of you took the time to make thoughtful and deeply considered suggestions to help us accomplish our goal of counting everyone in the nation.

The thoughts you shared are helping us to consider new research projects, expand existing projects, and make decisions on the 2030 Census operational design. We will share more details on how we’re incorporating those suggestions in our next webinar in mid-October. More details to come on that.

We are also thankful to the members of the federal advisory committees who recently provided insightful recommendations to us.

We plan to share updates often on where we are and what we’re doing to prepare for the next decennial census. A large and diverse infusion of insights is critical to developing the best plan possible for the upcoming census.

Until our next update, please visit our 2030 Census webpage to check out everything we are doing to prepare for the next decennial census.

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