Demographic

When compared to the rest of the world, the population of Malawi is growing quicker, has a lower level of urbanization (18 percent in 2021), an average level of life expectancy (72.4 years in 2022), and lower levels of education (4.7 mean years of schooling in 2019). Substantial disparities are observable between genders, among provinces, and between urban and rural areas. Malawi also has a higher dependency ratio (75.7 percent in 2022), higher prevalence of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (8.1 percent in 2020), and malaria is a leading cause of death and morbidity for children.¹ The AIDS epidemic, which mostly affects people of working age, increases the already high dependency ratio, especially in the Southern region. At a subnational level, there has been a decreasing gender gap in education since 2000 for all regions, with the Northern region having the highest level of education for both men and women.

Economic

Malawi has a generally low level of economic development with rain-fed agriculture being the main source of livelihood for most of the population. There are substantial urban and rural economic differences across the regions.

Infrastructure

Malawi has good mobile phone coverage, but a poor level of access to electricity. There are substantial differences between urban and rural areas and between regions.

Environment

Since 2001, the country has lost 14 percent of its tree-covered area and has experienced an increasing level of soil degradation. Climate change will bring a higher number of hot days, intense rainfall spells, and more extreme flooding events. There is an increasing level of soil erosion and deforestation in Malawi, especially in the Northern region. 

A landlocked, rural country in southeastern Africa (18 percent urban in 2021), Malawi has 28 districts grouped into three regions (Northern, Central, and Southern), a population of 20.8 million, and one of the highest population densities in Africa—221 people per square kilometer in 2022.^2,3 It also has one of the youngest populations in the world (Figure 1), with almost one-half of the population aged 19 and under.⁴ Malawi has a high rate of HIV (8.1 percent in 2020 for adults aged 15–49), while malaria is endemic and is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in children.^5,6

The population nearly doubled between 2000 and 2022 (from 10,921,949 to 20,794,353), with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2022. The total fertility rate in 2022 is estimated to be 3.4, higher than most other countries but less than one-half of what it was in 1982 (7.72).⁷

The large number of young people leads to a high dependency ratio (75.7 percent), a potential vulnerability when the society is confronted with natural disasters or financial distress. At the subnational level, many districts in the Southern region—the southeastern ones in particular—have a higher-than-average dependency ratio (greater than 85 percent) (Figure 2), which is likely related to the larger percentage of orphans. The orphanhood rate is 13.6 percent in this part of the country compared with 9.6 percent in the Central region and 10.8 percent in the Northern region.⁸ This is the result of Malawi having one of the highest AIDS prevalence rates among adults in the world (about 9 percent). The Southern region had the highest HIV prevalence in the country in 2016 (12.8 percent). Within the Southern region, the southeastern districts have the highest HIV prevalence and the highest dependency ratios (Figure 2).⁹

The older adult population (65 and older) represents only 3.75 percent of Malawi’s population in 2022 and is more female than male with a sex ratio of 81 males per 100 females.

The current average life expectancy is 72.4 years, a substantial improvement from 44.0 years in 1982. Similarly, Malawi has made progress lowering its child mortality rate (under the age of 5) from 267.7 in 1982 to 55.5 in 2022.¹⁰

Malawi has a low Human Development Index (169 out of the 191 countries in 2021) and a low level of educational attainment (4.7 mean years of schooling in 2019), particularly in the rural areas.^11,12

Although the educational attainment has increased for all regions during the past 2 decades (Figure 3), this trend has stagnated since 2017 and remains low in comparison to the global median.¹³ Since 2010, the Northern region has had the highest mean years of schooling for both men and women and a narrowing gender gap. It must be noted that the Northern female mean years of education has surpassed the mean years of schooling for males in the Central and Southern regions since 2010 (Figure 3). The differences between urban and rural areas are substantial on this dimension as well—in 2016, the median years of schooling for urban women was 6.7 years versus 2.7 years for rural women, while the value for urban men was 7.6 years versus 3.4 years for rural men.¹⁴

In terms of food security, an estimated 60.4 percent of households in 2016 were found to suffer from moderate to severe food insecurity in the past 4 weeks. Again, the lowest level was recorded in the Northern region, where 40.5 percent of households were food insecure in the previous 4 weeks.¹⁵ The high proportion of insecure access to food led to high levels of zinc deficiencies in all population groups (more than 60 percent) and iron deficiencies in preschool-age children (21.7 percent).

Due to increased agricultural production in the past 5 years, the number of Malawians facing high-level acute food insecurity has decreased, but in August 2022 an estimated 3.8 million people (about 20 percent of the country’s population) were expected to face food insecurity in the next 5–6 months.¹⁶ There is a gender inequality to food security, with households headed by males being 18 percent more food-secure than the households headed by females.¹⁷

Economic Dimension

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity per capita of $1,591.5 in 2020.¹⁸ In 2021, it had a 2.8 percent rate of economic growth but the remnants of several tropical systems and dry spells impacted Malawi in 2022, destroying farmland and infrastructure and reducing expectations for economic growth in 2022 compared to 2021.¹⁹

Agriculture represents 30 percent of Malawi’s GDP, with 90 percent of its population employed in primary production agriculture. Only 4 percent of cultivated land is irrigated, making Malawi’s economy susceptible to extreme weather events and flooding.²⁰ Cyclone Idai, the remnants of which affected Malawi in 2019, caused an estimated USD 345 million (£270 million) in damages and impacted over 975,000 people, leaving 86,000 without a home (Figure 4).²¹

Livestock production is concentrated in the Northern region, which is also the region with the lowest poverty rate in 2019–2020 (32.9 percent versus the national average of 50.7 percent).²² The Northern region had the lowest ultra-poverty rate in the country in 2021 (8.6 percent versus 20.5 percent at the national level).²³

There is a relatively low and decreasing level of economic inequality in Malawi. The Gini coefficient was 0.379 in 2019–2020, down from 0.423 in 2016–2017. Inequality is higher in urban areas than in rural areas (0.390 versus 0.332), with the Northern region having the lowest level of inequality (0.36).^24,25

Clean Water and Sanitation

While over 80 percent of Malawian households have access to clean water and improved sanitation, there are notable differences between urban and rural areas and variation among the three regions (Figures 5 and 6).

Electricity Grid

In 2020, only 15 percent of Malawian households had access to electricity. The Northern region had the highest percentage of households with electricity access (Figure 7), and its households were almost evenly split between having interconnected or off-grid electricity. The proportion of households with electricity access largely reflects the urban/rural distribution since urban households were far more likely to have some electricity access than rural households (53 percent versus 12 percent in 2020).

Information and Communication

Similarly, urban Malawian households have greater access to all information and communication technologies (radio, television, any phone, computer, and internet). As is the case with many other developing countries, over one-half of rural Malawian households have access to some type of phone, which is important for accessing other resources.

Each number represents the proportion of the specified regional population with access to the indicated information or communication technology.

Malawi is facing deforestation, soil degradation, and declining fisheries as well as limited capacity to manage natural resources.²⁶

In 2010, there were 1.39 million hectares of forest in Malawi, or 12 percent of its total land area. Since 2000, the country lost an estimated 209,000 hectares of tree cover, a 14 percent decrease of its area covered by forests. Nkhata Bay, a district in the Northern region, was responsible for 37.2 percent of all the tree cover lost in the country.²⁷ Deforestation in the Northern region, coupled with damaging rainfall and lack of good soil management practices, led to increasing soil erosion in this part of the country.²⁸

Climate change will complicate these issues. Malawi has a tropical climate, but variations in elevation—with peaks up to 10,000 feet—cause cooler temperatures and subtropical microclimates in some places. There is significant interannual variability in the wet season rainfall, mainly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation.²⁹ In terms of climate change effects (Figure 8), all projections predict increases in the frequency of “hot” days and nights. In particular, “hot nights” (nights with high temperature in comparison to the annual climate of 1970–1999) are projected to occur on 27–53 percent of nights by the 2060s and 31–72 percent of nights by the 2090s.³⁰ As the human physiological limits related to heat tolerance will be reached more often, these extreme heat events will reduce the work capacity of outdoor workers and will cause higher morbidity and more excess deaths.^31,32 Conversely, decreases in the mean number of rain days and an increase in the rainfall intensity are likely. These changes suggest more variability in rainfall, with both a higher probability of dry spells and of intense rainfall events, which are often associated with flooding.³³ As of January 2022, 495,155 people in Malawi were displaced due to tropical storms.³⁴

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¹ Dependency ratio is calculated as the ratio of the dependent-age population (young and old) to the working age population.

² World Bank, “Urban Population (Percent of Total Population) – Malawi,” 2022, <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=MW>, accessed on 10/27/2022.

³ U.S. Census Bureau, International Database (IDB), 2022, <www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2022&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2022&FIPS_SINGLE=MI>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

⁴ U.S. Census Bureau, International Database (IDB), 2022, <www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2022&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2022&FIPS_SINGLE=MI>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

⁵ World Bank, “Prevalence of HIV – Malawi,” 2022, <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS?locations=MW>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

⁶ Center for Disease Control and U.S. Agency for International Development, “U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative. Malawi,” 2022, <www.pmi.gov/where-we-work/malawi-2/>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

⁷ U.S. Census Bureau, International Database (IDB), 2022, < www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2022&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2022&FIPS_SINGLE=MI>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

⁸ National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi] and International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF), “Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2015–16,” Zomba, Malawi, and Rockville, Maryland, USA, 2017.

⁹ Nutor, J. J. et al., “Spatial Analysis of Factors Associated With HIV Infection in Malawi: Indicators for Effective Prevention,” BMC Public Health 20, Article 1167, 2020.

¹⁰ U.S. Census Bureau, International Database (IDB), 2022, <www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNTRY_YEAR=2022&COUNTRY_YR_ANIM=2022&FIPS_SINGLE=MI>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

¹¹ UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), “Human Development Report 2021-22,”New York, 2022,  <https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2021-22>, accessed on 10/26/2022.

¹² Global Data Lab, “Indicators (2019) - Table - Subnational HDI - Global Data Lab,” 2022, <https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/table/2019/msch+mschf+mschm/MWI/?levels=1+4&interpolation=0&extrapolation=0>, accessed on 10/26/2022.

¹³ World Bank, “Mean Years of Schooling,” TCdata360, 2022,  <https://tcdata360.worldbank.org/indicators/h22a4bb2b?country=MWI&indicator=41393&viz=line_chart&years=2017,2019>,  accessed on 05/23/2022.

¹⁴ National Statistical Office (NSO) [Malawi] and International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF), “Malawi Demographic and Health Survey 2015–16,” Zomba, Malawi, and Rockville, Maryland, USA, 2017.

¹⁵ National Statistical Office (NSO), Community Health Sciences Unit (CHSU) [Malawi], Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and Emory University, “Malawi Micronutrient Survey 2015-16: Key Indicators Report,” Atlanta, GA, USA, 2016.

¹⁶ World Bank, “The World Bank in Malawi,” 2022, <www.worldbank.org/en/country/malawi/overview#1>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

¹⁷ United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), “Overcoming Poverty in Malawi Through Sustainable Environment and Natural Resource Management,” <https://pea4sdgs.org/knowledge/publications/pei-publications/overcoming-poverty-in-malawi-through-sustainable-environment-and-natural-resource-management>, retrieved on 08/10/2022.

¹⁸ World Bank, “GDP per Capita, PPP (Current International $) – Malawi,” 2022, <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=MW&most_recent_value_desc=false>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

¹⁹ World Bank, “The World Bank in Malawi,” 2022, <www.worldbank.org/en/country/malawi/overview#1>, retrieved on 05/30/2022.

²⁰ International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and World Bank, “Climate-Smart Agriculture in Malawi,” CSA Country Profiles for Africa Series, CIAT, Washington, DC, 2018.

²¹ Nyalusu, Philip, “Climate Crisis – A Solution in the Hands of Global Leaders and Politicians,” 08/24/2021, <https://reliefweb.int/report/malawi/climate-crisis-solution-hands-global-leaders-and-politicians>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

²² Malawi National Statistical Office, 2020 Malawi Poverty Report, Government of Malawi, Zomba, 2021.

²³ The food poverty line is calculated as the price per calorie multiplied by the per capita daily caloric requirement (2215 kcal). This food poverty line is also the ultra-poverty line. The ultra-poor are those households whose total per capita expenditure levels are below the food poverty line.

²⁴ The Gini coefficient summarizes the dispersion of income across the entire income distribution. It ranges from 0 (indicating perfect equality where everyone receives an equal share), to 1 (absolute inequality where only one recipient or group of recipients receives all the income), U.S. Census Bureau, 2022, <www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/income-inequality/about/metrics/gini-index.html>.

²⁵ Malawi National Statistical Office, 2020 Malawi Poverty Report, Government of Malawi, Zomba, 2021.

²⁶ USAID, “Malawi. Environment,” 2022, <www.usaid.gov/malawi/environment#:~:text=Malawipercent20facespercent20continuedpercent20challengespercent20of,andpercent20reducedpercent20fertilitypercent2Cpercent20amongpercent20others>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

²⁷ Global Forest Watch, “Malawi. Forest Change,” 2022, <www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/MWI/?category=summary&location=WyJjb3VudHJ5IiwiTVdJIl0%3D&map=eyJjYW5Cb3VuZCI6ZmFsc2UsImRhdGFzZXRzIjpbeyJkYXRhc2V0IjoicG9saXRpY2FsLWJvdW5kYXJpZXMiLCJsYXllcnMiOlsiZGlzcHV0ZWQtcG9saXRpY2FsLWJvdW5kYXJpZXMiLCJwb2xpdGljYWwtYm91bmRhcmllcyJdLCJib3VuZGFyeSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6MSwidmlzaWJpbGl0eSI6dHJ1ZX0seyJkYXRhc2V0IjoiTmV0LUNoYW5nZS1TVEFHSU5HIiwibGF5ZXJzIjpbImZvcmVzdC1uZXQtY2hhbmdlIl0sIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsInZpc2liaWxpdHkiOnRydWUsInBhcmFtcyI6eyJ2aXNpYmlsaXR5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZG1fbGV2ZWwiOiJhZG0wIn19XX0%3D&showMap=true>, 2022, accessed 05/30/2022.

²⁸ International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and World Bank, “Climate-Smart Agriculture in Malawi,” CSA Country Profiles for Africa Series, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Washington, DC, 2018, <https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2019-06/CSA%20_Profile_Malawi.pdf>, accessed on 10/27/2022.

²⁹ McSweeney, C., M. New, and G. Lizcano, “UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Malawi,” United Nations Development Programme, 2015.

³⁰ Ibid.

³¹ Ioannou, Leonidas G. et al., “Occupational Heat Strain in Outdoor Workers: A Comprehensive Review and Meta-Analysis,” Temperature, 9:1, 67-102, 2022, DOI: 10.1080/23328940.2022.2030634, <www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2022.2030634>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

³² Ebi, Kristie L. et al., “Hot Weather and Heat Extremes: Health Risks,” The Lancet, Volume 398, Issue 10301, 2021, pp. 698–708, <www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140673621012083>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

³³ Future Climate for Africa (FCFA), “Future Climate Projections for Malawi,” Cape Town, South Africa, 2017, <https://futureclimateafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2772_malawi_climatebrief_v6.pdf>, accessed on 05/30/2022.

³⁴ International Organization for Migration (IOM), “Displaced Population Tracked by DTM in Malawi,” 2022, <https://displacement.iom.int/malawi>, accessed on 05/30/2022.