The Subnational Projections Toolkit is a set of Excel workbooks, associated step-by-step guides and methods documentation, and a User's Guide to using the tools included in the Toolkit. These products support preparation of subnational population projections following cohort-component and/or non-cohort-component (mathematical extrapolation) methods.
The Toolkit includes Excel workbooks, associated step-by-step guides and methods documentation, as well as the Census Bureau’s Rural-Urban Projection (RUP) program and companion program for combining RUP projections (RUPAGG), and a User’s Guide for the tools included in the Toolkit. Brief descriptions of the User’s Guide and tools are presented below, along with links allowing selection of parts of the Toolkit for downloading.
An Installer file may be downloaded by those who would like to download the Census Bureau’s Population Analysis System (PAS), RUP, and the full Toolkit, and have all of these tools installed and configured to work together on their computers.
This Guide describes the use of the Toolkit workbooks along with the Census Bureau’s Rural-Urban Projection (RUP) program for preparing both cohort-component and non-cohort-component projections. It also describes the use of cohort-component output to control either mathematical extrapolation of smaller area population totals or extrapolated smaller area totals with age-sex detail.
Estimates intercensal migration based on survival ratio methods.
Projects internal and international migrants by sex for subnational areas (e.g., provinces or states) based on a question in the census about residence X years before the census.
Calculates consistent life expectancies at birth (e(0)) by sex for up to 32 subnational areas given initial levels of subnational area e(0)s and higher administrative level e(0) trends.
Calculates consistent total fertility rates (TFRs) for up to 32 subnational area populations given initial levels of subnational area TFRs and the TFR trend for a higher administrative level (e.g., for the nation).
Proportionally adjusts subnational populations and components of change by age and sex from RUP projections to agree with a national- or other higher-level RUP. Note: This workbook requires the RUP programs to be properly installed and configured. The Installer will do both installation and configuration of the RUP programs.
Displays tabulated population, fertility, mortality, and migration output data and charts for each shared year in the projection period of two separate Rural-Urban Projection (RUP) program projections.
Extracts and displays summary population, fertility, mortality, and migration output data in tables and charts for each year from a selected group of Rural-Urban Projection (RUP) program projections.
Projects the total populations of subnational areas by using a logistic function and controls projected subnational populations to a projected population series for a higher-level geographic area. The resulting projections are consistent with the higher-level series.
Adjusts subnational populations by age to match the age distribution of a higher-level total population. The workbook iteratively adjusts subnational populations by age and region with a contingency table.
RUP and RUPEX The Census Bureau’s Rural and Urban Projection Program (RUP) performs cohort component projections for an unlimited number of populations or areas. The number of subpopulations for which projections may be calculated has been expanded with the addition of a second program, RUPAGG. RUPEX is the Excel user interface for RUP, RUPAGG, and RUPCombine.
RUPAGG Aggregates RUP output files to produce consistent sets of projections at multiple geographic levels (e.g., national and subnational projections).
RUPCombine Allows modeling of population changes due to catastrophic events (e.g., famine or civil conflict) when they are confined to one-half of a calendar year.