This report presents the results of research directed toward the preparation of population estimates by race. The method investigated is an extension of the Administrative Records technique used in preparing estimates of total population for States and local jurisdictions.¹ The basic approach and procedures of the Administrative Records method are retained, but rely upon background data compiled by race to develop independent parallel series of estimates for each racial group.

To prepare the race estimates, elements of demographic information were obtained for a 1-percent sample of individuals from the Summary Earnings File of the Social Security Administration. (The file includes all persons ever assigned a social security number.) These data were merged with information from a similarly selected sample of personal income tax returns of the Internal Revenue Service, making it possible to measure migration by race using the same techniques now used in the Administrative Records method.

The State-race estimates prepared using this technique follow the same two-step process as the total population series in moving from 1970 to 1975. The resulting estimates relate to July 1, 1973 and July 1, 1975, with components of change for the period April 1, 1970 to July 1, 1975.² Estimates are constructed for the White and Black populations as well as for a third category, “other races," composed principally of American Indians and Asian Americans. The final results have been adjusted to conform to national estimates by race published in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 643 and with estimates of the resident population of States for 1975 appearing in Series P-25, No. 642.

The Census Bureau has attempted to make population estimates by race for States at irregular intervals over the past 10 years, but none of the previous studies has produced consistently satisfactory current estimates.³ Although some States and localities produce race estimates for their own areas, no agency has developed a comprehensive series of current estimates by race for all States.

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¹ The Administrative Records method is described in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 649 through 698 (one report for each State).
² Previously contained in a presentation at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America by David L. Word, U.S. Bureau of the Census, St. Louis, April 1977.
³ Meyer Zitter and Gilbert R. Felton, “Estimates of Non-White Population for States and Local Areas — Some Experimental Results” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 1967. Current Population Reports, Series P-23, No. 31, April 10, 1970; "Use of Social Security's Continuous Work History Sample for Population Estimates." Meyer Zitter and David L. Word, "Use of Administrative Records for Small-Area Population Estimates" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 1973.