The Contribution of Different Sources of Error to the Accuracy of National Population Forecasts in the U.S.
The Contribution of Different Sources of Error to the Accuracy of National Population Forecasts in the U.S.
RR92-07
Introduction
Consider a female population disaggregated by single years of age. Suppose we have available a forecast that is thought to be unbiased for the logarithm of the population vector. The problem we consider is, what is the contribution of the different vital processes to the forecast error of different ages? Alho and Spencer (1991) provided approximate propagation of error formulas needed in such an analysis. The derivation assumed that certain covariance terms would be so small that they could be neglected. A related issue is, therefore, how accurate are these approximate formulas in different circumstances?
Others in Series
Working Paper
A Demographic Evaluation of the 1988 Dress Rehearsal Post-Enumerati...
A Demographic Evaluation of the 1988 Dress Rehearsal Post-Enumeration Survey Results
Working Paper
Apportionment Methods for the House of Representatives and the Cour...
Apportionment Methods for the House of Representatives and the Court Challenges
Working Paper
The Discrimination Power of Dependency Structures in Record Linkage
The Discrimination Power of Dependency Structures in Record Linkage
Related Information
WORKING PAPER
Statistical Research Reports and Studies
Page Last Revised - October 28, 2021