As mentioned in the preceding section, we first estimated emigration for the selected countries that had consistent data on the foreign-born population and then for non-selected countries with inconsistent data. We present these in order.
Emigration to Selected Countries
The estimates of emigration for the selected countries were developed in two steps: (1) the estimates for foreign-born persons who were resident in 1980 (stock), and (2) the estimates for those who came during 1980-1990 (flow). The 1980 foreign- born stock was the basis for the estimation of emigration rates during 1980-1990. We first present the estimates for the stock followed by those for the flow.
Emigration For Those Who Came Before 1980
From among the 10.6 million foreign-born persons who had come to the United States from the selected countries before 1980, about 1,198,000 or 11 percent emigrated during 1980-1990 (see Table 4). Of these emigrants, 634,000 came during 1970- 1979, 221,000 during 1960-1969, and 343,000 before 1960. The emigration rates were 19 percent for the cohort of 1970-1979, 9 percent for 1960-1969, and 7 percent for before 1960. The rates are consistent in that the highest rate was for the most recent period of entry and the lowest for the most distant past. The rates for males and females were very close; each shows a declining trend by period of entry.
The emigration rates by race also seem to be consistent. Overall, the highest emigration rate was for Blacks (20 percent), followed by the Asian and Pacific Islander population (16 percent), non-Hispanic Whites (11 percent) and Hispanics (8 percent). The emigration rate for Blacks was consistently high in all three periods of entry. The rate for Hispanics was consistently low in all three periods of entry.
For all races, the age-specific emigration rates by sex were estimated for the three periods of entry: 1970-1979, 1960-1969, and before 1960. Table 5 shows the age-specific emigration rates by sex for those who had entered during 1970-1979. The age- specific rates for males are plotted in Figure 1 and those for females in Figure 2. Irrespective of race and sex, the emigration rates of recent immigrants show a similar pattern: high at younger ages, low during adolescence, high again during college life, low again during working life, high again during retirement and low again after retirement. Despite the fluctuations associated with life cycles, the age pattern of emigration shows a declining trend by age.
Emigration for Those Who Came During 1980-1990
As explained in section 2, in order to estimate the amount of emigration for those who came during 1980-1990, we need to estimate the following: (1) average length of stay during 1980- 1990, (2) average age at time of entry, (3) survival rate, (4) emigration rate, and (5) the initial foreign-born population that was at risk of death and emigration. The average length of stay is the weighted average of the duration to April 1, 1990 from the middle points of the years 1980-1981, 1982-1984, 1985-1986, and 1987-1990. The weights are the proportions of foreign-born persons who came during these years and were counted in the 1990 census. As shown in Tables A3 and A4, the average length of stay varies by age, sex, and race. For example, for Hispanic males, the length is 5 years for the age group 20-25 in 1990 and 6 years for the age group 25-30 in 1990 (see Table A3). For Hispanic females, however, the length is 4 years for the age group 20-25 in 1990 and 5 years for the age group 25-30 in 1990 (see Table A4). For non-Hispanic White males and females, the length is 4 years for the age group 25-30 in 1990. Tables A3 and A4 also show the average age at time of entry of the initial population. This age was estimated by subtracting the average length of stay from the middle point of age groups in 1990.
Given the age at entry and the length of stay, we estimated the life table survival rates and emigration rates. As before, we used the 1990 life tables for the estimation of survival rates. For emigration, we assumed that the rate for those who came during 1970-1979 would apply to those who came during 1980- 1990, with the length of stay being different (less than 10). To conform to the estimated length, we first converted the 10-year emigration rate into a one-year rate (see Table 6) and then multiplied it by the estimated length. The new rates and the estimated numbers of emigrants--by age and race--are given in Table A5 for males and Table A6 for females.
The total amount and percent of emigration for those who came from the selected countries during 1980-1990 are given in Table 7 (columns 3 and 4). About 384,000 people or 8 percent of the foreign-born population that came during 1980-1990 also emigrated during the same period. Both the amount and percent of emigration for the 1980-1990 cohort are less than the corresponding figures for the before 1980 cohort (see columns 4 and 5). The amount is less because of its smaller base; the percent is less because the base was at risk of emigration for a shorter period.
Total Emigration to Selected Countries
Emigration of those who came before 1980 and those who came during 1980-1990 sum to 1,582,000 for the decade or about 158,000 per year (column 1 in Table 7). The number of male emigrants was 799,000, with a rate of 11 percent. The number of female emigrants was 783,000, with a rate of 9 percent. The emigration rates for non-Hispanic Whites and the Asian and Pacific Islander population hovered around 10 to 11 percent. The emigration rate for Blacks was about 14 percent and for Hispanics only 7 percent.
The estimated yearly emigration of 158,000 is about 19 percent higher than the Bureau's current level of 133,000. Note that this estimate is only for the selected population. It doesn't include emigration for foreign-born persons who came from the non-selected countries listed in Table 3. The size of the foreign-born population from these non-selected countries was 3.4 million or 24 percent of the 1980 stock. Mexico alone was the country of birth of 2.3 million people who were resident in 1980. For another 1.1 million people, the countries of birth were El Salvador, Guatemala, and Peru. What was the size of emigration for people who came from these non-selected Hispanic and other countries listed in Table 3?
Emigration To Non-Selected Countries
Does the inconsistency observed between the expected and counted foreign-born populations from the non-selected countries tell us there was no emigration for these countries? The answer is no. We are then left with the possibilities that the emigration rates for the non-selected countries were higher, the same as or lower than those for the selected countries. To derive a "reasonable" schedule of emigration rates for non- selected countries, our recourse was to consider the determinants of emigration.
Determinants of Emigration
Research on the determinants of emigration is scant. In assessing the role of emigration on Social Security's financial status, Duleep (1994) listed four factors that he felt best accounted for the lower emigration rate of the current and future foreign-born populations. First, the overall relative attractiveness of the country of origin in terms of its economic, social, and political condition likely affects emigration (Liu, 1975). If a country is disproportionately less attractive than another (both compared to the United States) then people migrating from the less attractive country would be less likely to return home. Second, just as the proximity to family and friends encourages migration, the presence of family and friends in the place of origin discourages migration (Lansing and Mueller, 1967; Fabricant, 1970; Greenwood, 1969). It is possible that the greater the presence of family and friends in the United States, the greater the likelihood that immigrants' costs of migration (e.g., social, economic, and psychological costs) would be shared by friends and kin, lowering the probability of emigration. Third, immigrants admitted as refugees tend to emigrate at a lower rate because of fear of political persecution (Warren, 1979; Jasso and Rosenzweig, 1990). Finally, the lower the entry earnings of immigrant cohorts (adjusted for education), the lower is the subsequent rate of emigration. Research has shown that immigrants with low-entry earnings have high-earnings growth (Chiswick, 1978a, 1978b, 1979; Duleep and Regets, 1992, 1994a, 1994b, 1994c), which in turn encourages investment in U.S.-specific skills and capital, and ultimately lowers the propensity to emigrate.
Emigration Rates for Non-Selected Countries
To extrapolate emigration rates for the non-selected countries, let us now turn to the application of the determinants of emigration to individual countries. Direct evidence on all the four factors of emigration noted above does not exist for these countries. Nonetheless, the available indirect evidence indicates that the emigration rates for the non-selected countries were lower than those for the selected countries. We discuss this with respect to race below.
Hispanic: The countries or areas that were selected for the estimation of Hispanic emigration rates are Argentina, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Colombia, Ecuador, Other North and Central America (major countries are Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama), Other South America (major countries are Bolivia, Chile and Venezuela) and Spain. The countries that were excluded from estimation or put in the "Non-Selected" category are Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Peru. As shown in Table 2, about 2.1 million aliens or 84 percent of the 2.5 million aliens who legalized under IRCA during the fiscal years 1989 to 1991 came from the non-selected Hispanic countries compared to about 0.1 million aliens or about 4 percent from the selected Hispanic countries. Although proximity was a factor, the enormous difference in the numbers of undocumented aliens (2.1 million versus 0.1 million) was probably because of less "attractiveness" of the non-selected countries. This validates our contention that the emigration rates for the non-selected countries would be lower than those for the selected countries.
The second emigration factor relates to the presence of family and friends in the United States. The Immigration Act of 1965 abolished the national origins quota system which favored the European countries, and established a system that would admit immigrants primarily on the basis of kinship ties. This change in federal laws coupled with changing economic opportunities in Europe was responsible for a major shift in the origin of immigrants--from European to Asian and Hispanic countries--in 1980. However, not each Hispanic or Asian country had the same share of total immigrants. As shown in Table 3, the non-selected Hispanic countries were the origins of 2.5 million foreign-born persons in 1980 compared to 1.8 million for the selected Hispanic countries. Admissions of family-based immigrants during the 1980s reveal similar disproportionate share of immigration. To the extent the presence of family and friends dilute the cost of staying away from one's home country, the emigration rate would be lower for the non-selected Hispanic countries.
The third factor refers to admissions of refugees and asylees. Two of the non-selected Hispanic countries--El Salvador and Guatemala--were sources of asylees during the 1980s. Inclusion of these countries in the non-selected category would have dampening effect on its emigration rate.
The last factor correlates the low-entry earnings leading to high-earnings growth and investment in U.S.-specific human capital with a low propensity of emigration. Although we did not examine data on earnings of immigrant cohorts, we can speculate that the average earnings of foreign-born persons from the non- selected Hispanic countries would be lower than that from the selected Hispanic countries. Our speculation follows from the influx of several million undocumented aliens and special agricultural workers from the non-selected countries, who are generally employed in low-paying jobs.
Black: Africa (as a whole) was included in the estimation of emigration rates for Blacks while Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago were excluded (see Table 3). For the same reasons given for the non-selected Hispanic countries, the emigration rates for the non-selected Black countries (Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago) would be lower than those for the selected Black countries (Africa).
Asian and Pacific Islander (API): The selected countries or areas for API emigration rates are China, India, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and Other Oceania. The API area in the "Non- Selected" category is "Other South and East Asia," which includes major countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. The selected countries are relatively more attractive than the non- selected countries in terms of social, economic, and political conditions. Although China's political condition is different from Japan and Korea, the strict governmental policy and loyalty of the Chinese to their form of government places China in the group of attractive countries as far as emigration is concerned. Three of the non-selected API countries--Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos--are economically disadvantaged and are major sources of Asian refugees. Following Duleep's (1994) conclusions, these considerations suggest that the emigration rates for the non- selected countries would again be lower than the selected countries from this region.
This discussion about the determinants of emigration and their specific application to individual countries confirms our original assertion that the emigration rates for the non-selected countries should be lower than those for the selected countries. But, how much lower? In the absence of any empirical basis, we shall take a middle ground assumption and establish emigration rates at 50 percent of the rates for the selected countries.
Emigration Estimates for Non-Selected Countries
Table 8 gives the levels of emigration during 1980-1990 for the non-selected countries based on assumed emigration rates (columns 6-10). The levels vary from zero for the assumption of zero emigration to 747,000 for the assumption of the same rate as for the selected countries. Our preferred assumption--one-half of the rate for the selected countries--produced a level of 367,000 for the decade. Of this amount, Hispanics accounted for 231,000, Blacks, 49,000, and the Asian and Pacific Islander population, 87,000. The amount of emigration for the Mexico-born population was 201,000.
Total Emigration During 1980-1990
The total amount of emigration during 1980-1990 is the sum of the amount of emigration for the selected countries and that for the non-selected countries. As shown in Table 8 (columns 1- 5), the amount varies from 1,582,000 to 2,329,000, depending on emigration assumptions for the non-selected countries. According to the middle-ground assumption, about 1,949,000 foreign-born persons emigrated over the 1980-1990 period. Among total emigrants, there were 439,000 Hispanics, 878,000 non-Hispanic Whites, 131,000 Blacks, and 501,000 Asians and Pacific Islanders.
The new single-year estimate of emigration--195,000--is about 47 percent higher than the currently used level of 133,000 per year. This higher amount of emigration is consistent with related events in recent U.S. history: the continuous rise in legal immigration, admissions of refugees and political asylees, and the general amnesty given to the undocumented aliens and special agricultural workers under IRCA.
Emigration by Country of Birth
Table 9 shows the numbers of yearly emigrants for 40 major countries or areas of birth. These numbers were derived by multiplying the base foreign-born population that came from each of these countries (by age, sex, and year of entry) by its corresponding "model-based" emigration rate (e.g., Hispanic, non- Hispanic White, Black, and API rates). The estimated numbers were independently controlled to 101,000 male emigrants and 94,000 female emigrants for a total of 195,000.
Europe received the highest number of emigrants per year (63,736), followed by Asia (61,071), North and Central America (52,512), South America (9,035), Africa (6,796) and Oceania (1,850). The five countries that received more than 10,000 emigrants per year are Mexico (20,068), Canada (11,241), Germany (11,887), China (10,149), and the Philippines (11,242). The United Kingdom is the only other country that had close to 10,000 emigrants per year.