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Imputing 2020 Economic Impact Payments in the 2021 CPS ASEC

Working Paper Number SEHSD-WP2021-18
Adam Bee, Charles Hokayem, Daniel Lin

Introduction

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress passed legislation to aid individuals and families. This legislation included the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) in March 2020 and the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA Act) in December 2020. Both the CARES Act and the CRRSA Act provided households with additional resources in the form of stimulus payments. This paper presents a model of the two rounds of stimulus payments received by households in 2020 based on combining survey responses from the 2021 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) with the CPS ASEC Tax Model. We present the Production Model used in the 2021 CPS ASEC and in the 2020 Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM). We present two additional models with different underlying assumptions that affect take-up rates and provide upper and lower bounds on the aggregate stimulus amount and the number of individuals receiving payments. We also provide aggregates comparable to tabulations released by the Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income program and estimate the SPM rate under each model.

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