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Revisions to the Methodology for Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates
Working Paper Number: SEHSD-WP2024-31
Timely and frequent assessments of poverty showed their promise as supplements to annual estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper describes revisions to the methodology in Silwal (2023), built largely on Parolin et al. (2022), to generate monthly estimates of poverty by combining monthly and annual components of the Current Population Survey. Here I describe a few revisions to the methodology. The first revision allocates refundable tax credits to relevant months of receipt rather than spreading them out evenly across all months of a year. The second revision assigns unemployment insurance benefits to unemployed individuals based on the national recipiency rate and the wage replacement rate. The third revision improves the computation of the margin of error by incorporating sampling uncertainty captured in replicate survey weights. This paper is intended to be a part of a series of working papers that will periodically reassess and improve the methodology for estimating monthly poverty statistics.
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Page Last Revised - December 6, 2024
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