Employer List Linking: Methods, Implementation, and Usage of Probabilistic Matches for Enhancing Workforce Statistics

Organizer: Mark J. Kutzbach, Census Bureau

July 31 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

2:05pm Robustness of Employer List Linking to Methodological Variation

Mark J. Kutzbach, Census Bureau
Graton Gathright, Census Bureau
Andrew Green, Census & Cornell
Kristin McCue, Census Bureau
Holly Monti, Census Bureau
Ann Rodgers, University of Michigan
Lars Vilhuber, Cornell
Nada Wasi, University of Michigan
Christopher Wignall, Amazon.com

2:25pm Two Perspectives on Commuting and Workplace: A Microdata Comparison of Home to Work Flows Across Linked Survey and Administrative Files

Andrew Green, Cornell & Census Bureau
Mark J. Kutzbach, Census Bureau
Lars Vilhuber, Cornell

2:45pm Developing job linkages for the Health and Retirement Study

Kristin McCue, Census Bureau
John M. Abowd, Census Bureau & Cornell
Margaret Levenstein, University of Michigan
Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan
Ann Rodgers, University of Michigan
Nada Wasi, University of Michigan
Dhiren Patki, University of Michigan

3:05pm Comparing Survey and Administrative Earnings: An Application of Employer-List Linking

Lori Reeder, Census Bureau
Holly Monti, Census Bureau

Innovative Uses of Linked Administrative and Survey Data

August 1 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

11:35am Incomes of the Population 65+: A New Look with Linked Survey-Administrative Data

Adam Bee, Census Bureau
Joshua W. Mitchell, Census Bureau

Forecasting and ARMA Modeling

August 1 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

Chair: Brian Monsell, Census Bureau

Time Series Seasonal Adjustment: Weekly Valued and Weather Adjustments

August 2 - 10:55am - 11:15am

Organizer: James Livsey, Census Bureau

10:55am Accommodating Weather Effects in Seasonal Adjustment

Osbert Pang, Census Bureau
Brian Monsell, Census Bureau
William Bell, Census Bureau
James Livsey, Census Bureau

11:15am An Examination of Weekly Seasonal Adjustment

Brian Monsell, Census Bureau
Tucker McElroy, Census Bureau

Time Series Modeling: Seasonality, Multivariate and Testing

August 3 - 8:30am - 10:20am

Organizer: James Livsey, Census Bureau

9:15am The Effects of Seasonal Heteroskedasticity on Trend Estimation and Seasonal Adjustment for Time Series

Thomas Trimbur, Census Bureau
William Bell, Census Bureau

9:35am Residual Diagnostics for Automated Model Selection

James Livsey, Census Bureau
Tucker McElroy, Census Bureau
Anindya Roy, Census Bureau

9:55am Test based on Frobenius norm distance of spectral matrices for presence of structural components

Anindya Roy, Census Bureau
Tucker McElroy, Census Bureau

Bayesian Modeling with Economic Data

August 4 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:50am Exploring New Estimation Techniques for the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey

Joanna Fane Lineback, Census Bureau
Martin Klein, Census Bureau
Joseph L Schafer, Census Bureau

Using and Teaching the ASA Revised Ethical Guidelines for the Practice of Statistics

August 1 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Organizer and Chair: Howard Hogan, Census Bureau

Tackling the Challenges of Missing Data in Surveys: Applying Methods and Assessing Uncertainty

August 1 - 8:30am - 10:20am

Organizer: Katherine Jenny Thompson, Census Bureau
Chair: Mary Mulry, Census Bureau

8:35am Estimating the Variance Due to Hot Deck Imputation for Product Value Estimates in the 2017 Economic Census

Katherine Jenny Thompson, Census Bureau
Matthew Thompson, Census Bureau
Roberta Kurec, Census Bureau

8:55am Variance Estimation for Product Value Estimates in the 2017 Economic Census Under the Assumption of Complete Response

Matthew Thompson, Census Bureau
Katherine Jenny Thompson, Census Bureau

Modeling Multivariate Count Data: Multivariate Extensions and Generalizations of Standard Count Distributions

July 31 - 4:00pm - 5:50pm

Organizer: Darcy Morris, Census Bureau
Chair: Andrew Raim, Census Bureau

4:45pm Introducing the Bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Distribution

Kimberly Sellers, Georgetown
Darcy Morris, Census Bureau
Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan, McMaster University

Administrative Records & Data Disclosure

July 31 - 4:00pm - 5:50pm

5:20pm Using Scaling to Achieve the Best Cell Suppression Pattern for a Large Disclosure Avoidance Problem

Bei Wang, Census Bureau

Advances in Statistical Methods for Dissemination and Analysis of Official Statistics

August 1 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

2:30pm The Challenge of Reproducible Science and Privacy Protection for Statistical Agencies

John M. Abowd, Census Bureau and Cornell

Missing Data, Imputation, & Calibration

August 2 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

3:20pm Do Imputed Earnings Earn Their Keep? Evaluating SIPP Earnings and Nonresponse with Administrative Records

Mark Klee, Census Bureau
Rebecca Chenevert, Census Bureau
Kelly Wilkin, Census Bureau

Recent Advances and Applications of Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Models for Official Statistics

August 3 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Chair: James Livsey, Census Bureau

10:55am Predicting Coverage Error on the Master Address File using Spatial Modeling Methods at the Block Level

Krista Heim, Census Bureau
Andrew Raim, Census Bureau

Innovations in Disclosure Avoidance at the U.S. Census Bureau

August 3 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Organizer and Chair: Aref Dajani, Census Bureau

10:35am Controlling Identification Disclosure Risk in Microdata Release Through Unbiased Post-Randomization

Cheng Zhang
Jiashen You, Department of Transportation
Tapan Nayak, Census Bureau

10:55am Data Synthesis and Perturbation for the American Community Survey at the U.S. Census Bureau

Amy Lauger, Census Bureau
Michael Freiman, Census Bureau
Jerome Reiter, Duke

11:15am Estimating Regression Parameters from a Sensitive Variable with Noise Multiplication

Marlow Lemons, Census Bureau
Bimal Sinha, University of Maryland Baltimore County
Aref Dajani, Census Bureau

11:35am Challenges Facing the Disclosure Review Board at Census

William Wisniewski, Census Bureau

Sampling & Survey Methods

August 3 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

2:50pm The Performance of the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor in Annual Survey of Local Government Finances

Peter Schilling, Census Bureau
Redouane Betrouni, George Mason University
Bac Tran, Census Bureau

3:05pm Outliers in the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll-Small Area Estimation Approach

Giang Trinh, Census Bureau
Bac Tran, Census Bureau

Sampling & Survey Methods

August 4 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:05am The Sample Design of the U.S. Census Bureau's 2015 National Content Test

Sarah Konya, Census Bureau
Michael Bentley, Census Bureau
Kelly Matthews, Census Bureau

9:20am FROM CONCEPT TO QUESTION: LESSIONS FROM DEVELOPING A BUSINESS SURVEY ON BANKS' SMALL BUSINESS LENDING PRACTICES

Kenneth Herrell, Census Bureau
Kenneth Pick, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Michael Purcell, Census Bureau
Susan Bucci, Census Bureau

9:50am Evaluation of Estimation Methods for Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act

Patrick Joyce, Census Bureau

Testing for Data Quality: Challenges in Practice

August 4 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

10:35am Recent advances in post-randomization - an extensive study comparing PRAM and data swapping on ACS

Jiashen You, Department of Transportation
Tapan Nayak, Census Bureau

Nonresponse & Propensity Scores

August 4 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

11:20am Nonresponse Bias Analysis for the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Financial Report

Jeremy Knutson, Census Bureau
Greg Cepluch, Census Bureau

11:50am Sending Pre-notice Postcards to Increase Response and Decrease Cost for the Current Population Survey

Allison Zotti, Census Bureau
Louis Avenilla, Census Bureau
Gina Walejko, Census Bureau

Adaptive Design in Large Scale Sample Surveys: Difference Perspectives (Panel)

August 1 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Peter Miller, Census Bureau: Panelist

Modeling Multivariate Count Data: Multivariate Extensions and Generalizations of Standard Count Distributions

July 31 - 4:00pm - 5:50pm

Organizer: Darcy Morris, Census Bureau
Chair: Andrew Raim, Census Bureau

4:45pm Introducing the Bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Distribution

Kimberly Sellers, Georgetown
Darcy Morris, Census Bureau
Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan, McMaster University

New Approaches in Classification Methods

August 2 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

3:35pm Big data Methods for Scraping Government Tax Revenue from the Web

Brian Dumbacher, Census Bureau
Cavan Capps, Census Bureau

Challenges in metagenomics data analysis: reproducibility and interpretability of inferences on microbial community composition and dynamics

August 1 - 8:30am - 10:20am

8:35am Dimensional reduction of metagenomics data with ecological equivalence

Senthilkumar Muthiah, University of Maryland
Eric Slud, Census Bureau
Mihai Pop, University of Maryland
Hector Corrada Bravo, University of Maryland

The Consumer Expenditure Survey Redesign: Development, Concept Testing, and Evaluation

July 31 - 4:00pm - 5:50pm

5:05pm Survey Redesign Recommendations from a Survey of Data Collection Field Staff

Adam Safir, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Brandon Kopp, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Lucilla Tan, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wallace Fraser, Census Bureau
Tanisha Keller, Census Bureau

New Approaches to Small Area/Domain Estimation

July 31 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

2:20pm Estimating Design Effects in Small Areas and Domains by Aggregation of Domains/Areas

Jerry Maples, Census Bureau

The Consumer Expenditure Survey Redesign: Development, Concept Testing, and Evaluation

July 31 - 4:00pm - 5:50pm

5:05pm Survey Redesign Recommendations from a Survey of Data Collection Field Staff

Adam Safir, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Brandon Kopp, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Lucilla Tan, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wallace Fraser, Census Bureau
Tanisha Keller, Census Bureau

Survey modes, including web surveys, phone and multi-mode surveys

August 1 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:50am What Paradata Can Tell Us about Online Data Reporting by Juvenile Residential Facilities

Suzanne Dorinski, Census Bureau

Innovative Uses of Linked Administrative and Survey Data

August 1 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

11:35am Incomes of the Population 65+: A New Look with Linked Survey-Administrative Data

Adam Bee, Census Bureau
Joshua W. Mitchell, Census Bureau

Combined Data (surveys + administrative data, etc.)

August 1 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

10:35am Using the 2015 Census Test Evaluation Followup to Compare Nonresponse Followup with Administrative Records

Mary Mulry, Census Bureau
Tom Mule, Census Bureau
Brian Clark, Census Bureau

11:05am Bayesian Decision Theory for Further Optimizing the Use of Administrative Records in the Census NRFU

Yves Thibaudeau, Census Bureau
Darcy Morris, Census Bureau

11:20am Using 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Results to Better Understand Possible Administrative Records Incorporation in the Decennial Census

Andrew Keller, Census Bureau
Scott Konicki, Census Bureau

Advances in Small Area/Domain Estimation

August 1 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

3:05pm Parametric Bootstrap Mean Square Error Estimates for Different Small Area in the Annual Survey of Public Employment & Payroll

Bac Tran, Census Bureau

A.M. Roundtable Discussion (added fee)

August 2 - 7:00am - 8:15am

TL08. Alternative Goals for Adaptive Survey Design

Peter Miller, Census Bureau

2020 Census - Operation Design and Methods

August 2 - 8:30am - 10:20am

Organizer: Robin A. Pennington, Census Bureau
Chair: Lisa Blumerman, Census Bureau

8:35am The Operational Design of the 2020 Census: Overview of the Current Status

Robin A. Pennington, Census Bureau

8:55am An Overview of the Master Address File Coverage Study

Evan Boyd, Census Bureau

9:15am Optimizing Self-Response for the 2020 Census

Michael Bentley

9:35am Using Administrative Records to Identify Occupied and Vacant Units

Vincent Mule, Census Bureau
Andrew Keller, Census Bureau
Darcy Morris, Census Bureau

9:55am Field Re-engineering for the 2020 Census

Tamara Adams, Census Bureau

Statistical Methods for Complex Survey Data

August 2 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:20am Model-Assisted Estimation Using Time-to-Event Models

Benjamin Reist, Census Bureau

Applications of Regression Trees on Sample Data

August 2 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Chair: Katherine Jenny Thompson, Census Bureau

Machine Learning for Dependent Data IMS

August 2 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

10:35am Variable Reduction in High-Dimensional Vector Time Series

Tucker McElroy, Census

11:55am Supervised Implicit Network construction and Analysis of related Network Wide Metrics

Brandon Park
Anan N Vidyashankar, George Mason University
Tucker McElroy, Census
Jie Xu, George Mason University

Nonprobability/Web Sampling and Data Analysis

August 2 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

11:20am Design of Sample Surveys which Complement Observational data to Achieve Population Coverage

Eric Slud, Census Bureau
Robert Ashmead, Census Bureau

Design and analysis issues with modern population telephone surveys

August 3 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:00am Causal Inference with Unequal Sampling Weights-Investigating Policy Effect Using Population Health Surveys

Bo Lu, The Ohio State University
Robert Ashmead, Census Bureau

Innovative Statistical Methods for Complex Survey Data

August 3 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:35am Inference from Complex Survey-Embedded Field Experiments

Robert Ashmead, Census Bureau
Eric Slud, Census Bureau

Recent Advances and Applications of Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Models for Official Statistics

August 3 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Chair: James Livsey, Census Bureau

10:55am Predicting Coverage Error on the Master Address File using Spatial Modeling Methods at the Block Level

Krista Heim, Census Bureau
Andrew Raim, Census Bureau

Combined data and data linkage (surveys + administrative data, geospatial data, etc.)

August 3 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

10:50am Quality and Analysis of Sets of Files

William Winkler, Census Bureau

Update on Current Population Survey Research

August 3 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

Organizer: Yang Cheng, Census Bureau
Chair: James Farber, Census Bureau

2:05pm Current Population Survey Sample Size Study

Daniel Sommers, Census Bureau
Stephanie Chan Yang, Census Bureau
Yang Cheng, Census Bureau

2:25pm An Iterative Composite Estimator in the Current Population Survey

Yang Cheng, Census Bureau
Zhou Yu, East China Normal University
Jun Shao, University of Wisconsin

2:45pm An Overview of Current Population Survey Variance Methodology

Aaron Gilary, Census Bureau
Yang Cheng, Census Bureau
Eric Slud, Census Bureau

Non-response adjustment and nonresponse bias reduction methods

August 3 - 2:00pm - 3:50pm

Chair: Eric Slud, Census Bureau

Topics in adaptive/responsive survey designs

August 4 - 8:30am - 10:20am

9:15am Experimenting with contact strategies to aid adaptive design in economic surveys

Cha-Chi Fan, Census Bureau
Alfred D Tuttle, Census Bureau
Joshua Langeland, Census Bureau
Erica Marquette, Census Bureau
Aryn Hernandez, Census Bureau
Stephanie Coffey, Census Bureau
Jennifer Beck, Census Bureau

9:35am Survey of Income and Program Participation Case Prioritization Experiment Results

Gina Walejko, Census Bureau
Allison Zotti, Census Bureau

9:55am Assigning Cases Effectively for the Current Population Survey

Kevin Tolliver, Census Bureau

Resampling Methods in Mixed Effects Models with Applications in Small Area Estimation and Other Related Fields

August 4 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

11:50am Discussant: Eric Slud, Census Bureau

Contributed Poster Presentations: Government Statistics Section

August 2 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

Informing Maintenance to the U.S. Census Bureau's Master Address File with Statistical Decision Theory

Andrew Raim, Census Bureau

Contributed Poster Presentations: Survey Research Methods Section

August 1 - 10:30am - 12:20pm

61: Misspecified sampling weights in weight-smoothing methods

Xia Li, UMD
Eric Slud, Census Bureau