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Projections for the United States: 2017 to 2060

The 2017 population projections for the United States are the third set of projections based on the 2010 Census. Prior series based on the 2010 Census were released in 2012 and 2014.

The 2017 population projections series updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend to have higher fertility rates. The 2017 series extends this work and for the first time accounts for the generally lower mortality rates and longer life expectancy of the foreign-born. By including assumptions about the mortality of native and foreign-born people, the 2017 projections better account for the effects of international migration on the population of the United States.

This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2016 as the base for projecting the US population from 2017 to 2060. The series uses the cohort-component method and historical trends in births, deaths, and international migration to project the future size and composition of the national population.

The 2017 National Population Projections include a main series and three alternative scenarios. The main series was released with updates in September 2018 [See Errata Note]. The alternative scenarios, released in February 2020, were based on assumptions of low, high, and zero levels of immigration. All other methodology and assumptions, including fertility and mortality, are the same as those used in the main series. The three alternative scenarios are useful for analyzing potential outcomes of different levels of immigration.

Tables based on the 2017 series are available in the 2017 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series and 2017 National Populations Projections Tables: Alternative Scenarios sections. Additional projections files are available via the Census Bureau application programming interface (API).

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Datasets

1. Projected Population by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2016 to 2060

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2. Projected Births by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2016 to 2060

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3. Projected Deaths by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2016 to 2060

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4. Projected Net International Migration by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2016 to 2060

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5. Projected Population by Single Year of Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin and Nativity for the United States: 2016 to 2060

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Inputs to the 2017 National Population Projections

Note: The inputs remained the same for all migration scenarios.

6. Projected Age-Specific Fertility Rates for Women Aged 14 to 54 Years by Nativity, Hispanic Origin, and Race for the United States: 2017 to 2060

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xls   Main Series   [<1.0MB]

7. Projected Mortality Rates by Nativity, Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2017 to 2060

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xls   Main Series   [<1.0MB]

8. Projected Life Expectancy at Birth by Nativity, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2017 to 2060

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xls   Main Series   [<1.0MB]

9. Projected Survival Ratios by Nativity, Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2017 to 2060

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xls   Main Series   [<1.0MB]

10. Projected Total Fertility Rates by Nativity, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2017 to 2060

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xls   Main Series   [<1.0MB]
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