The 2017 series updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend to have higher fertility rates. The 2017 series extends this work and for the first time accounts for the generally lower mortality rates and longer life expectancy of the foreign-born. By including assumptions about the mortality of native and foreign-born people, the 2017 projections better account for the effects of international migration on the population of the United States.
This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2016 as the base for projecting the US population from 2017 to 2060. The series uses the cohort-component method and historical trends in births, deaths, and international migration to project the future size and composition of the national population.
The 2017 National Population Projections include a main series and three alternative scenarios. The main series was released with updates in September 2018 [See Errata Note]. The alternative scenarios, released in February 2020, were based on assumptions of low, high, and zero levels of immigration. All other methodology and assumptions, including fertility and mortality, are the same as those used in the main series. The three alternative scenarios are useful for analyzing potential outcomes of different levels of immigration.
The tables below show comparisons between the four migration scenarios. Files based on the main series (or middle scenario) are available in the 2017 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series section. Additional files on the main series and alternative scenarios are also available in the 2017 National Population Projections Datasets section. Additional projections files are available via the Census Bureau application programming interface (API).