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Population Projections

Component ID: #ti703721956

*REVISED SEPT. 6, 2018 AND OCT. 8, 2019*

Note: The 2017 National Population Projections were revised after their original release date March 13 to correct an error in the calculation of infant mortality rates. The files were removed from the website on August 1, 2018 and an erratum note was posted. The error erroneously caused an increase in the number of deaths projected in the total population. The revised calculation in the infant mortality rate results in a decrease in the number of deaths and a slight increase in the total projected population in the revised series. The error did not affect the other two components of population change used in the projections series (fertility and migration). Additionally, major demographic trends, such as an aging population and an increase in racial and ethnic diversity, remain unchanged.  

​The corrected data files are now available here. Six statements in the news release have been corrected and are highlighted in red below. One additional statement and two figures were updated (Driving Population Growth and An Aging Nation) on October 8, 2019 and are indicated in red italics. Please disregard any previous versions. 

Component ID: #ti329841011

Sound Bites (Downloadable)

Component ID: #ti703721956

*REVISED SEPT. 6, 2018 AND OCT. 8, 2019*

Note: The 2017 National Population Projections were revised after their original release date March 13 to correct an error in the calculation of infant mortality rates. The files were removed from the website on August 1, 2018 and an erratum note was posted. The error erroneously caused an increase in the number of deaths projected in the total population. The revised calculation in the infant mortality rate results in a decrease in the number of deaths and a slight increase in the total projected population in the revised series. The error did not affect the other two components of population change used in the projections series (fertility and migration). Additionally, major demographic trends, such as an aging population and an increase in racial and ethnic diversity, remain unchanged.  

​The corrected data files are now available here. Six statements in the news release have been corrected and are highlighted in red below. One additional statement and two figures were updated (Driving Population Growth and An Aging Nation) on October 8, 2019 and are indicated in red italics. Please disregard any previous versions. 

Component ID: #ti426337579

1) Aging Population

Attribute to: Lauren Medina, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

2030 marks an important decade of population change for the U.S. By 2030, all Baby Boomers will be 65 or older, and beginning later that decade, older adults are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history.

Component ID: #ti907618805

Attribute to: Kevin Barragan, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

El año 2030 marca una década importante de cambio poblacional para los Estados Unidos. Para el año 2030, todos los "baby boomers" o las personas que nacieron entre 1946 y 1964 tendrán 65 años o más, y superarán numéricamente a los niños por primera vez en la historia de los Estados Unidos".


Component ID: #ti384168077

2) Changes to How the Population is Growing

Attribute to: Lauren Medina, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

In coming decades, the population is projected to grow more from international migration than from natural increase. This projected trend has less to do with international migration than with population aging, as fertility rates fall and the number of deaths rise in an aging population. As a result, the population is expected to naturally increase very slowly, leading international migration to overtake natural change as the primary driver of population growth.

Component ID: #ti666697820

Attribute to: Kevin Barragan, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

En las próximas décadas, la población está proyectada a crecer más por causa de la migración internacional que del aumento natural. Este pronóstico tiene menos que ver con la migración internacional que con el envejecimiento de la población, a medida que hay un descenso en las tasas de fecundidad y el número de defunciones aumenta en una población que envejece. Como resultado, se espera que el crecimiento natural de la población sea lento, dejando que la migración internacional supere el cambio natural como el principal impulsor del crecimiento de la población.


Component ID: #ti437427450

3) Changing Demographics of Children

Attribute to: Lauren Medina, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

The population of children who are two or more races is expected to double in size by 2060. The racial and ethnic makeup of younger generations is changing more quickly than for older generations. A little over one third of children in 2060 are expected to be non-Hispanic white compared to over half of adults.

Component ID: #ti2013030636

Attribute to: Kevin Barragan, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

Se espera que se doble la población de niños identificados de dos o más razas en el año 2060. La composición racial y étnica de las generaciones menores está cambiando más rápidamente que para las generaciones mayores. Se espera que un poco más de un tercio de los niños en el año 2060 sean blancos no hispanos en comparación con más de la mitad de los adultos.


Component ID: #ti984402828

4) Total Population Growth

Attribute to: Lauren Medina, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

In 2058 the U.S. population is projected to reach just over 400 million.  This is nearly twice the size of the U.S. population in 1970 (203 million) marking a historic milestone for the total population of the United States.

Component ID: #ti2134423247

Attribute to: Kevin Barragan, Demographer, U.S. Census Bureau

En el año 2058, se prevé que la población del país llegue a poco más de 400 millones.  Esto es casi el doble del tamaño de la población en el año 1970 (203 millones). Esto marcará un hito histórico para la población total de los Estados Unidos.


Component ID: #ti939842615

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