The Multiple Testing Problem for Box-Pierce Statistics

Written by:
RRS2012-15

Abstract

We derive the exact joint asymptotic distribution for multiple Box-Pierce statistics, and use these results to determine appropriate critical values in joint testing problems of time series goodness-of-fit. A novel α-rationing scheme, motivated by the sequence of conditional probabilities for the statistical tests, is developed and implemented. This method can be used to produce critical values and p-values both for each step of the sequential testing procedure, and for the procedure as a whole. Efficient computational algorithms are discussed. Simulation studies assess the impact of finite samples on the real Type I error. It is also demonstrated empirically that the conventional χ2 critical values for the Box-Pierce statistics are too small, with a Type I error rate greater than the nominal; the new method does not suffer from this defect, and allows for more rigorous model-building.

Related Information


Page Last Revised - October 28, 2021