census.gov Notification
Due to the lapse of federal funding, portions of this website are not being updated. Any inquiries submitted via www.census.gov will not be answered until appropriations are enacted.

The Multiple Testing Problem for Box-Pierce Statistics

Written by:
RRS2012-15

Abstract

We derive the exact joint asymptotic distribution for multiple Box-Pierce statistics, and use these results to determine appropriate critical values in joint testing problems of time series goodness-of-fit. A novel α-rationing scheme, motivated by the sequence of conditional probabilities for the statistical tests, is developed and implemented. This method can be used to produce critical values and p-values both for each step of the sequential testing procedure, and for the procedure as a whole. Efficient computational algorithms are discussed. Simulation studies assess the impact of finite samples on the real Type I error. It is also demonstrated empirically that the conventional χ2 critical values for the Box-Pierce statistics are too small, with a Type I error rate greater than the nominal; the new method does not suffer from this defect, and allows for more rigorous model-building.

Related Information


Page Last Revised - October 28, 2021