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The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions
The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions
Working Paper Number CES-22-20
Abstract
This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive covariance between worker marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elasticities of earnings to GDP, which is a key moment for a new class of heterogeneous-agent models. I define the Matching Multiplier as the increase in the multiplier stemming from this matching of high MPC workers to more cyclical jobs. I show that this covariance is large enough to increase the aggregate MPC by 20 percent over an equal exposure benchmark.
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Page Last Revised - June 28, 2022
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