Demographic Analysis (DA) is a method used to evaluate the quality of the census. We use current and historical vital records, data on international migration, and Medicare records to produce national estimates of the population on April 1 by age, sex, the DA race categories, and Hispanic origin. The DA population estimates are independent of the decennial census. The results are used to produce estimates of net coverage error, which are calculated as the percent difference between the census counts and the DA population estimates.
Traditionally, the DA estimates have been produced by sex and single year of age for the race categories Black and non-Black. Starting in 2010, the DA program produces estimates by Hispanic origin (Hispanic/Non-Hispanic) for a limited number of ages. New data sources, changes in the racial and ethnic make-up of the nation, and evolving patterns of international migration present both challenges and opportunities for DA.
The U.S. Census Bureau used DA to measure coverage in Census 2000. The initial results of the 2000 Demographic Analysis were produced in March 2001, after the Census 2000 results had been publicly released. The Census 2000 total was 281.4 million, while the initial DA estimate was 279.6 million, which implied an overcount in the census. The Population Division decided that they may have underestimated immigration during the 1990s and a large research team was formed to revise the 2000 DA estimates. In October 2001, the Census Bureau released the final 2000 DA estimates. The revised total was 281.8, which implied a net undercount in Census 2000 of 338,000 or 0.12 percent.
Demographers external and internal to the Census Bureau have made contributions to Demographic Analysis.
Coverage of Population in Census 2000 Based on Demographic Analysis
DA documents the long-term reduction in the net undercount rate and also reveals the persistent and disproportionate undercount of certain groups.
Assessment of Consistency of Census Data with Demographic Benchmarks
Th is evaluation study reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Evaluating Components of Intl. Migration: Foreign-Born Emigrants
This report focuses on the evaluation of the Census Bureau’s estimate of foreign-born emigration from the United States between 1980 and 1990 (DAPE).
Evaluating Components of Intl. Migration: Native-Born Emigrants
This report focuses on the evaluation of the assumptions about emigration of the native born used by the Census Bureau (DAPE).
Components of Migration: Consistency of 2000 Nativity Data
This report examines the consistency of the data associated with the foreign-born population across all data products, and to address significant differences.
Components of Migration: Migration Between Puerto Rico and the U.S.
This report focuses on the evaluation of the Census Bureau’s estimate of net migration between Puerto Rico and the United States in the 1980s and 1990s.
Components of International Migration: The Residual Foreign Born
This report focuses on the evaluation of estimated residual foreign-born population (including unauthorized & quasi-legal migrants) in 1990 and 2000.
Evaluating Components of International Migration: Legal Migrants
This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimate of legal immigration to the United States between 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 (DAPE).