Demographic Analysis (DA) is a method used to evaluate the quality of the census. We use current and historical vital records, data on international migration, and Medicare records to produce national estimates of the population on April 1 by age, sex, the DA race categories, and Hispanic origin. The DA population estimates are independent of the decennial census. The results are used to produce estimates of net coverage error, which are calculated as the percent difference between the census counts and the DA population estimates.
Traditionally, the DA estimates have been produced by sex and single year of age for the race categories Black and non-Black. Starting in 2010, the DA program produces estimates by Hispanic origin (Hispanic/Non-Hispanic) for a limited number of ages. New data sources, changes in the racial and ethnic make-up of the nation, and evolving patterns of international migration present both challenges and opportunities for DA.
On December 6, 2010, the DA estimates for April 1, 2010 were released at a news conference and technical meeting. A revised set of 2010 Demographic Analysis (DA) middle series estimates were released in May 2012. These estimates included more recent data and improvements from ongoing research. Specifically, they were produced from revised estimates of births, deaths, net international migration, and the Armed Forces overseas population. In addition, the revised middle series of estimates used the components of population change (births, deaths, and net international migration) to estimate the population aged 65 to 74 years instead of the Medicare enrollment data used in the original series. Finally, the revised middle series included estimates for the Black alone or in combination population aged 0 to 29 years.
The revised 2010 DA middle series estimate of the total resident population is 308,345,764, which may be compared to the previously released DA middle series estimate of 308,475,178.
National Demographic Analysis Tables: 2010 (Revised)
These tables feature national population estimates developed using a specific set of techniques, revised in May 2012.
Demographers external and internal to the Census Bureau have made contributions to Demographic Analysis.
Estimating Net International Migration for 2010 Demographic Analysis
One component of the Demographic Analysis estimates is net international migration, which represents the movement of people who change their residence.
Development & Sensitivity Analysis of 2010 Demo. Analysis Estimates
This paper describes the development of the 2010 Demographic Analysis (DA) population estimates.
Use of Medicare Enrollment Data in the Demographic Analysis Estimates
Focus on Medicare enrollment as a source for estimating the population aged 65 and older on April 1, 2010.
Plans for Producing Estimates of Net International Migration
Over the past decade, the Census Bureau has undertaken a major initiative to improve its ability to measure net international migration.